Shooting a free throw should be significantly easier than attempting a contested jumper, but for some (especially during certain times) it becomes much harder. I liken it to dancing solo at a wedding. The average guy feels much more comfortable holding hands with his dance partner, which protects him from resorting to the dreaded white man?s overbite.
Alexander Wolff penned a terrific piece in the Mar. 23 edition of Sports Illustrated that explained, and supported, the mental aspect of attempting a free throw. Wolff?s piece, while incredibly insightful, focused mainly on college basketball, and was a sort of primer for this year?s NCAA Tournament.
College basketball players, on average, increase their foul shooting as they get older. Wolff used numbers from College Basketball Prospectus co-author Ken Pomeroy to make his point. As players get tougher mentally, they are better able to handle the pressure of stepping to the line with thousands of people focused solely on what they are doing.
Eddie Palubinskas, who played at LSU in the 1970s, believes that free throws go wrong when players don?t refine their mechanics, refuting the belief that shooting uncontested, flat-footed shots is more a mental game than anything else.
Personally, I think the art of foul shooting is far more complex than any one theory. Practice, as it does in most actions, improves the likelihood of success. However, calm nerves and the presence of ice water in one?s veins certainly helps increase the probability of swishing in a pair of freebies.
Wolff?s piece got me thinking ? if a player can shut out all the distractions surrounding him when attempting free throw and shoot for a high percentage consistently, shouldn?t he be able to keep his cool during other important moments of a game?
Think of some of the game?s greatest clutch players. Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, Reggie Miller, Jerry West and George Gervin are the five that pop into my mind the quickest. Not surprisingly, all five of those legends shot better than 81% from the line for their career. Miller and Bird even topped 90% multiple times during their time in Indiana and Boston, respectively.
Let?s look at the top-ten free throw shooters in the NBA this season.
1. Jose Calderon, Toronto ? 97.9%
2. Ray Allen, Boston ? 95.0%
3. Steve Nash, Phoenix ? 93.1%
4. Maurice Williams, Cleveland ? 91.1%
5. Chauncey Billups, Denver ? 90.8%
6. D.J. Augustin, Charlotte ? 89.7%
7. Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas ? 89.1%
8. David West, New Orleans ? 88.8%
9. Manu Ginobili, San Antonio ? 88.4%
10. Danny Granger, Indiana ? 88.3%
Now, thanks to 82games.com, let?s look at their foul shooting in clutch situations (defined by 82games.com as situations in the ?fourth quarter or overtime, with less than five minutes left, and neither team ahead by more than five points.?)
Calderon ? 100%, +2.1%
Allen ? 96%, +1.0%
Nash ? 100%, +6.9%
Williams ? 91%, -0.1%
Billups ? 89%, -1.8%
Augustin ? 94%, +4.3%
Nowitzki ? 84%, -5.1%
West ? 95%, +6.2%
Ginobili ? 89%, +0.6%
Granger ? 83%, -5.3%
As you can see, six of the league?s top free throw shooters are actually better in the clutch than they are over the full 48 minutes of a game. Sure, Granger and Nowitzki both shoot more than 5% lower in ?clutch? situations, but they still hit more than 80% of their attempts.
Comparing percentages from the foul line is one thing, but how do these ?dead-eye? shooters perform from the field when the pressure is the most intense? Now let?s compare the field goal shooting percentages of these ten players on the season, and in 82games.com?s ?clutch? time.
Calderon ? 50.3%, 48.0%, -2.3%
Allen ? 48.3%, 42.6%, -5.7%
Nash ? 49.8%, 44.7%, -5.1%
Williams ? 46.4%, 48.6%, +2.2%
Billups ? 42.0%, 40.4%, -1.6%
Augustin ? 43.9%, 28.6%, -15.3%
Nowitzki ? 47.3%, 41.6%, -5.7%
West ? 46.4%, 41.9%, -4.5%
Ginobili ? 45.9%, 39.1%, -6.8%
Granger ? 44.2%, 38.5%, -5.7%
Williams is the only player in this group that enjoys an increase in his shooting percentage in the clutch, while most suffer only slight decreases when the game is on the line. Augustin (-15.3%) stands out, but as a rookie, I wouldn?t read too much into his performance, or lack thereof, in crunch time. His assist-to-turnover ratio in such moments is a decent 1.9, and his impressing stroke from the foul line does get better.
If we are looking to see if good foul shooters are better in clutch situations, we obviously have to compare them to guys that aren?t as solid from the charity stripe. I analyzed 126 players, who are all on pace to make 125 free throws this season and have logged enough clutch minutes to qualify for 82games.com?s statistics.
I put players into four different groups and calculated how their free throw and field goal percentages change in clutch situations (comparing their overall shooting percentages to their ?clutch? ones). The groups were based on their season free throw percentages:
--Players that hit more than 90% of their FTs (5).
--Players that hit 80%-89% of their FTs (63).
--Players that hit more than 70%-79% of their FTs (48).
--Players that hit fewer than 70% of their FTs (10).
On average, players in my data set see just a 0.4% decrease in their free throw percentage at the end of games, and suffer a 3.3% drop in their field goal shooting in key moments. In order to evaluate whether or not foul shooting is a valuable indicator of clutch performance, let?s look at the shooting differentials of players in my four groups.
Shooting Differentials In the Clutch
Group: Difference In FT%, Difference in FG%
90% or Higher: +1.6 FT%, -2.5 FG%
80% to 89%: -1.2 FT%, -3.9 FG%
70% to 79%: +0.8 FT%, -2.8 FG%
70% or Lower: -1.8 FT%, -2.2 FG%
It?s not surprising that the best free throw shooters in the NBA are better in the clutch than any other players, but the percentages aren?t incremental. One would imagine that the percentage differentials would decrease as you go. However, players in the 70-79% group enjoy a slight increase in their foul shooting, while players in the 80-89% range suffer from a slight drop.
Each group does see a sizable drop in their field goal percentage in the final five minutes of a close game, and the 80-89% group suffers the most drastic decrease. The best foul shooters, however, aren?t the most stable in the clutch. The ten players that shoot lower than 70% from the charity stripe actually enjoy the smallest variance from their overall field goal percentage.
I would argue, however, that the players in that group are attempting much-higher percentage shots. Rajon Rondo is the only player among the group that plays primarily on the perimeter. With that said, the five players that are hitting more than 90% of their foul shots this season are all guards, with four primarily playing the point.
In the interest of being thorough, here are the average season percentages for each of my four groups:
Season Shooting Percentages
Group: FT%, FG%
Overall: 79.8 FT%, 46.8 FG%
90% or Higher: 93.6 FT%, 47.4 FG%
80% to 89%: 84 FT%, 45.4 FG%
70% to 79%: 76.1 FT%, 47.0 FG%
70% or Lower: 62.8 FT%, 53.7 FG%
So, are the best foul shooters better in the clutch than the rest of the NBA?
I contend yes, although I?ll admit that it?s not as clear-cut an argument as I expected before I did the due diligence of the research. In the closing moments of an NBA game, as any fan knows, free throws are often the name of the game. The final few minutes can take a half hour when teams decide to foul in order to preserve time and the chance of a victory. The very best foul shooters in my research hit 1.6% more of their attempts in the clutch. That?s pushing their percentage of success past 95%. How can you ask for more than that in a close game?
Sure, the big men in the 70% or lower category are slightly more stable from the field, but difference is minuscule. There is just a 0.3% difference between the clutch field goal percentages of the best and worst foul shooters in my data set. In crunch time, both the game?s best and worst foul shooters will make two fewer shots in the clutch than they would over the course of an entire game. The difference, even in a game of numbers and points, is insignificant. It is interesting, however, to look at some players that enjoy unexpected increases in their ?clutch? shooting.
Some Clutch Surprises
Player: FT%, Clutch FG%, FG% Differential
Zach Randolph, New York/Los Angeles: 73.3 FT%, 63.9 FG%, +16.1%
Al Horford, Atlanta: 71.5 FT%, 66.7 FG%, +15.1%
Anderson Varejao, Cleveland: 61.7 FT%, 68.8 FG%, +14.9%
Marvin Williams, Atlanta: 80.4 FT%, 58.8 FG%, +13.3%
Carmelo Anthony, Denver: 78.4 FT%, 56.5 FG%, +11.9%
Luis Scola, Houston: 75.4 FT%, 63.2 FG%, +9.9%
Rashard Lewis, Orlando: 83.4 FT%, 53.8 FG%, +9.8%
Josh Howard, Dallas: 76.4 FT%, 55.6 FG%, +9.7%
Brandon Bass, Dallas: 86.2 FT%, 58.3 FG%, +8.9%
Keyon Dooling, New Jersey: 81.5 FT%, 51.7 FG%, +8.2
Charlie Villanueva, Milwaukee: 84.2 FT%, 51.9 FG%, +7%
LeBron James, Cleveland: 77.3 FT%, 55.7 FG%, +6.9%
T.J. Ford, Indiana: 86.7 FT%, 51.9 FG%, +6.8%
Pau Gasol, Los Angeles: 78.3 FT%, 63.2 FG%, +6.6%
Leandro Barbosa, Phoenix: 87.9 FT%, 55 FG%, +6.5%
The difference may not be as drastic as might be expected, but a player that excels as the charity stripe appears to be more reliable when the game is on the line.
Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com and co-host of RealGM?s Radio Show. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com