We thought Hedo Turkoglu was locked in with Portland, but after a change of mind decided to stay in the Eastern Conference and join the Toronto Raptors. It was a surprising move, but is also a move that is the best possible scenario for all involved parties.
Offensively, the Raptors will be vastly improved with Turkoglu in tow. The Toronto playmakers on the wings have been unquestionably ordinary, with Anthony Parker and Jason Kapono serving as primarily spot-up perimeter shooters.
The Raptors were net positive in PER production at center, power forward and point guard in 08-09, according to 82games, but they were -3.2 and -3.8 at the two wing positions.
Turkoglu will be used by the Raptors on a lot of the same pick and roll sets with Chris Bosh, as he was in Orlando with Dwight Howard. Bosh's ability to hit jumpers from 15-20 feet out will make that offensive unit potentially more lethal than the Magic.
Andrea Bargnani will serve as the de facto Rashard Lewis, with his length and ability to hit the 3-pointer.
I still believe Jose Calderon is one of the best of non-All-Star point guards in the NBA and giving him another ballhandler will only help preserve him.
Toronto will continue to give up a lot defensively and that is the principal difference between the elite Eastern Conference teams (Boston, Cleveland, Orlando) and that next tier (Toronto, Washington). Turkoglu is either an overrated or underrated defensive player, depending on the wave of reports about his defense. He isn't terrible by any means, but is far less of a liability when he is flanked by Howard and Lewis rather than Bosh and Bargnani.
The Raptors have also agreed to an affordable long-term deal with Bargnani, which means three of the club's four best players will remain in Toronto through 2013.
The years and money to Turkoglu are both incredibly substantial and years four and five will almost certainly be twice as much as he will be worth, but Bryan Colangelo has made a bold move to engage Bosh enough to convince him to stay in Toronto beyond 2010. They should be a playoff team this season and if they are not legitimately in the picture come February, they then could deal Bosh as a rental at the very least.
Beyond the immediacy of the signing, I believe the Raptors couldn't pair a better perimeter player with Demar DeRozan than Turkoglu. DeRozan is unquestionably a raw talent that still needs to develop many of his basic basketball skills and Turkoglu will make those shortcomings less of an issue.
Grade for Raptors: B+
As the Blazers were sizing up a number 15 in red, white and black for Turkoglu, he backed out of the deal and left Kevin Pritchard in limbo with what to do with his ticking away cap space. Since signing away Paul Millsap is not a realistic option considering Portland's available cap space, zeroing in on Turkoglu was the player that would have made the biggest immediate difference.
But signing Turkoglu would have been the easiest, least creative solution and most crucially, a short term solution for Portland. The Blazers are good enough to reach the Western Conference Finals next season, but are more realistically setup to truly be a title contender in 10-11 and the five seasons after that. An upgrade at small forward or point guard would preferably come in the age of a player that will be under the age of 32 five years from now.
The Blazers should preserve their cap space until the beginning of February. They will then have another half season to evaluate Martell Webster, Nicolas Batum and Jerryd Bayless to determine where their biggest need truly resides.
Teams are much more desperate to clear salary and make uneven trades during the season than in the summer when the records are wiped clear.
Grade for Blazers: A- (Depending on where the $7.7M in cap space ends up)
For Orlando, losing Hedo Turkoglu and Courtney Lee for Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson is a net loss. Carter is still one of the best wings in the NBA, but his shelf life as a top player is probably shorter than Turkoglu's. Losing Turkoglu will hurt the Magic more than they are admitting at this point, though the financial ramifications clearly forced their hand to some degree.
Grade for Magic: C-