At the outset, there are a couple of things worth remembering while we consider the upcoming bonanza that is the 2010 offseason.
1. Cap holds matter. Dwyane Wade opting out of his contract does not mean Miami can just spend up to the cap amount (whatever it ends up at) and then re-sign him to put the team over the limit. As he is on a max contract now, his cap hold will have a substantial effect on the money Miami can offer within the confines of the cap. Of course, should a big ticket free agent leave or sign for less money, this hold would be eliminated from his original team's books accordingly, but that?s unlikely for the max-level players in the short run.
2. The Mid-Level Exception and other cap holds do not go on top of cap space- they take it away. One of my biggest criticisms of the 2K basketball series (excellent as it is) is that they have never gotten the free agency rules correct. The MLE is just that- an exception. That means it allows teams over the cap to still spend that money, but teams under the cap have to renounce it should they want to use that cap space on free agents. One particularly notable example of this was Rashard Lewis, where Orlando had to renounce their exceptions to fit his sizable salary on their ledgers, though that was complicated a little further by it being a trade. As such, any team that maxes out their cap space cannot just toss on a Mid-Level exception on top. They can absolutely add minimum salary guys and give bigger contracts to players they have Bird Rights on, but they do not have the MLE to work with on top of the cap.
3. Bird Rights teams and non-Bird Rights teams can offer the same maximum possible contract for the first season of the deal. The difference between Bird squads and teams trying to sign their free agents is that the Bird team can offer higher raises (10.5% vs. 8%) and add the sixth contract year, not the base salary of the first season. As such, the relevant cap number for squads looking to pick up guys like King James and D-Wade is identical regardless of where the FA played the season before.
4. 1st Round draft picks count against the cap?but not entirely. Once drafted (and before signing with an overseas team- if they do that, they?re off the books for that season), first rounders count at their scale amount. However, players can sign for between 80% and 120% of scale, though a vast majority sign for 120% of scale. As such, a pick and a team waiting to sign that rookie deal can save the team 1/5 of the scale value for the first season during that period, a value that only holds any real significance for top-5 picks and teams really on the cap.
5. I am using a $52.5 million dollar salary cap. No one knows yet where the cap will be next off-season, but the number I am using is $52.5 million, which seems like a reasonable low-end (but not doomsday) estimate.
Atlanta: Atlanta?s moves this past summer effectively took them out of the 2010 Free Agent sweepstakes. It?s hard to argue with the bargain they got on Marvin Williams (with a built-in dip for next season), but their core simply costs too much for them to add a big name free agent, regardless of whether Joe Johnson chooses to return or not.
? Projected 2010 Salary [Josh Smith, Marvin Williams, Al Horford, Mike Bibby, Jamal Crawford, Zaza Pachulia, Jeff Teague, and Mo Evans? player option]:
? Projected cap room: $4.9M
Boston: The Celtics have been out of the 2010 chase since they made the big moves in the summer of 2007 that led them to win the 2008 Finals. It looked for a fleeting second like they could have a little room to make a splash with Ray Allen coming off the books, but the Rondo extension, coupled with Rasheed Wallace?s contract, made it clear that this squad will not be adding another expensive free agent this off-season.
? Projected 2010 Salary [Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen?s cap hold, Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis, Rasheed Wallace, JR Giddens, and Bill Walker]:
? Projected cap room: None
Charlotte: Probably the most shocking team to be completely out of the 2010 loop are the Bobcats, who still have never made the playoffs. They stood nearly no chance of having space going into the 2010 off-season, and the Okafor/Chandler trade made sure that Charlotte will not have money to spend in 2010. Interestingly, they have an outside shot of some financial freedom in 2011, at least for the time being.
? Projected 2010 Salary [Tyson Chandler?s player option, Gerald Wallace, Boris Diaw, Stephen Jackson, Nazr Mohammed, DeSagana Diop, DJ Augustin, Gerald Henderson, Alexis Ajinca, and Derrick Brown]:
? Projected cap room: None
Chicago: Moreso than any other team, Chicago?s impact on 2010 will be shaped by what players they move off of their current roster. If they renounce Tyrus Thomas and retain everyone under contract right now, the Bulls would have more than enough to max out one player. However, the Bulls have Luol Deng on the books for a little over $11.3M and Kirk Hinrich for an even $9M. Trading either of them for an expiring deal would make Chicago major players capable of obtaining multiple high-end guys in this free agent class.
? Projected 2010 Salary [Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich, Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, John Salmons, James Johnson, and Taj Gibson]:
? Projected cap room: $21.1M
Cleveland: Astonishingly enough, the Cavs do not possess that much flexibility going into 2010. Extending Anderson Varejao coupled with signing both Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon to muli-year deals gave the Cavs $34 million in players other than LeBron on the books for next year. With those contracts, Cleveland has less than the mid-level left if LeBron decides to return, and that?s without both Big Z and Shaq- the Cavs have Bird rights on both, but each would take up a cap hold substantial cap hold until they sign.
? Projected 2010 Salary [LeBron James? cap hold, Mo Williams, Anderson Varejao, Daniel Gibson, Jamario Moon, Anthony Parker, JJ Hickson, and Darnell Jackson]:
? Projected cap room: $7.6M
Dallas: The team with the trades. Since the Collective Bargaining Agreement that changed the game in 2005, no team has had the combination of assets that Mark Cuban has going into this off-season. The most notable piece is Erick Dampier?s non-guaranteed contract, which can be traded either before the deadline this season or during next off-season. His $13M contract can be voided at any time once this season ends, meaning it is effectively instant cap space for whoever holds that hot potato contract when the music stops. Now, it remains incredibly unlikely that Dallas ends the last year of his deal themselves, thanks to the amount of money they have on the books. The other compelling element of Dallas? 2010 is that they could sync up pretty well with a team that wants to lose salary (let?s say Chicago) who is willing to give up both a talented player and a pick or young guy for the space Damp?s contract would provide. Dallas could turn a team that is on the fringes of being able to sign a free agent into a major contender in one trade.
? Projected 2010 Salary [Dirk Nowitzki?s player option, Josh Howard?s team option, Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, Matt Carroll, Kris Humphries? player option, Jose Juan Barea, Rodrique Beaubois, and Quinton Ross? player option]:
? Projected cap room: None
Denver: Similar to Boston and many other playoff teams, Denver made its bed with the roster it already has. Considering both whom they have and the small amount of space they could have had, Denver clearly made the right decision. That said, their biggest problem is that they have so much money tied up in their starting five that their bench will have to take a hit thanks to the looming possibility of the luxury tax. Luckily, they have Afflalo, Balkman, and Ty Lawson on cheap deals, so they could potentially make it work reasonably until Kenyon Martin expires 2011.
? Projected 2010 Salary [Carmelo Anthony, Kenyon Martin?s player option, Chauncey Billups, Nene, JR Smith, Chris Andersen, Renaldo Balkman, Ty Lawson, and Arron Afflalo]:
? Projected cap room: None
Detroit: Joe Dumars? squad is notable because of the decision to build a long-term team off of free agents in the 2009 class instead of the 2010 class. Though either Tayshawn or Rip could very well move between now and then, the Pistons will not have the space to add any significant players in 2010 barring the unforeseen. What makes their situation even more incredible is that Charlie V, Ben Gordon, Maxiell, and Rip are all signed through 2013, which is an awfully long time for that core. What may end up making the difference for Detroit is their SF army from the 2009 draft class: Jerebko, Daye, and Summers are all incredibly cheap in the short term. Either way, the only way Detroit is a factor for guys above the Mid-Level is if they can move both Rip and Prince for expiring deals.
? Projected 2010 Salary [Hamilton, Prince, Ben Gordon, Rodney Stuckey, Villanueva, Maxiell, DeJuan Summers, Jonas Jerebko, and Chris Wilcox?s player option]:
? Projected cap room: None
Golden State: Oh lord. No matter what, Warriors fans cannot expect to have the space to make a splash in the 2010 free agent pool if the current roster comes even close to staying in its current state. This has stayed true even after Stephen Jackson was effectively dumped for expirings, since Monta and Biedrins combine to make $20 million and Maggette will make over $9M all by himself. Depending on what management wants to do, the Warriors can dramatically affect the market for other teams thanks to over $10 million in expiring contracts (Speedy Claxton, Raja Bell, and Devean George). Adding some long-term salary in exchange for talent and picks could both make this team better and make another franchise into legit 2010 free agent contenders.
? Projected 2010 Salary [Ellis, Biedrins, Maggette, Ronny Turiaf, Stephen Curry, Brandan Wright, Anthony Randolph, Anthony Morrow?s qualifying offer, Kelenna Azubuike?s player option, and Vladimir Radmanovic?s player option]:
? Projected cap room: $2.5M
Houston: Even with T-Mac coming off the books, it is hard to see Houston making a major deal in free agency unless a few surprising things happen. It is true that they only have about $38M million committed (which includes Yao?s $17.7< player option), but it?s reasonable to believe that they will want to retain Luis Scola, which would take a sizeable chunk of that remaining money. In effect, when Houston becomes players in the free agent market depends on Yao Ming?s future with the team. If they decide to part ways after his player option year, Houston could be the big fish in the 2011 pond considering how many players live there in the off-season and Texas? lack of a state income tax.
? Projected 2010 Salary [Yao Ming?s player option, Shane Battier, Trevor Ariza, Aaron Brooks, Carl Landry, Chuck Hayes, David Anderson, Luis Scola?s cap hold, Chase Buddinger, and Kyle Lowry?s qualifying offer]:
? Projected cap room: $9.3M
Indiana: The brass up in Indy has been working diligently to get substantially under the cap in 2011, when Dunleavy, Murphy, and Jamaal Tinsley?s albatross all expire. As such, they are not going to have an impact on the coming off-season except in the form of TJ Ford. Ford has an $8.5 million dollar player option for next season, and it would be unlikely that the Pacers would re-sign him if he opted out. My best guess at the moment is that he will opt in, but someone with his injury history could very well opt for the security of a longer deal even at less money per season, especially as he has become fully marginalized by Jim O?Brien.
? Projected 2010 Salary [Danny Granger, Troy Murphy, Mike Dunleavy, Jamaal Tinsley?s remaining contract, TJ Ford?s player option, Jeff Foster, Dahntay Jones, Brandon Rush, Tyler Hansbrough, Roy Hibbert, Solomon Jones, Josh McRoberts, and AJ Price]:
? Projected cap room: None
Los Angeles Clippers: The Clippers are the team I carry the most personal interest in going into 2010 because of their distinctive situation. One way to think about the space they?ll probably have going into the off-season is that they are about $600,000 over having enough to max out a player with LBJ/Wade?s experience with the guys they have under contract, excluding Telfair?s player option. What makes the Clippers different from every other team is that they have space with long-term starters signed at four of the five positions and play in a market that should intrigue more than a few free agents. Unlike teams like Chicago, the Clippers do not really have many guys that they could move to create more space, since their 2010 salary is concentrated in a few players. If they can get a starting-quality SF, we could actually see two teams in LA that should be expected to do more than just make the playoffs for the next few seasons.
? Projected 2010 Salary [Baron Davis, Chris Kaman, Eric Gordon, Blake Griffin, Al Thornton, and Sebastian Telfair?s player option]:
? Projected cap room: $14.3M
Los Angeles Lakers: Dr. Buss made the decision to keep his core in tact (excluding the Ariza for Artest swap), which was the right move. Like the other teams that needed to sign important players over the last few years, the Lake Show will not factor in to the decision-making of players going for over the MLE. Sam Smith could be right and a max-level guy could sign with the Lakers for the mid-level, but I?ll stick to reasonable scenarios for the time being.
? Projected 2010 Salary [Kobe, Pau, Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom, Ron Artest, Sasha Vujacic, Luke Walton, Shannon Brown, and Jordan Farmar?s qualifying offer]:
? Projected cap room: None
Memphis: A few years ago, it looked like the Grizzlies could be power players in 2010, at least in terms of available cap space. Then they chose to eat long-term salary (Jaric, Marko) to trade up to grab OJ Mayo in the 2008 Draft. That decision was coupled with the addition of Zach Randolph, who coincidentally has an identical contract to Pau Gasol before Pau?s new extension with the Lakers. With those moves, Memphis took themselves out of getting any FA?s in 2010, though their decision on restricted free agent Rudy Gay could have a significant impact on a few teams.
? Projected 2010 Salary [Zach Randolph, OJ Mayo, Mike Conley, Rudy Gay?s qualifying offer, Marko Jaric, Hasheem Thabeet, Marc Gasol, Hamed Haddadi, Darrell Arthur, DeMarre Carroll, Sam Young]:
? Projected cap room: $5.2M
Miami: Well, well, well. With just Wade (maybe), Beasley, Super Nintendo Chalmers, Cook, and any 2010 draft picks on roster, Miami will have by far the most interesting hand to play this off-season. What makes their situation different is that they have that much space and combine it with a talented team and a location where NBA players would actually want to live and play, making it even more impressive. That said, something to consider is that salaries kick up year-to-year and they need to fill their roster, so they have a tough balancing act to accomplish this summer.
? Projected 2010 Salary [Wade?s cap hold, Michael Beasley, Mario Chalmers, Daequan Cook]:
? Projected cap room: $21.8M
Milwaukee: One of the truly impressive turnaround stories in recent NBA history, management has some incredibly tough decisions ahead of them. Unfortunately for them, cap space this summer is not going to be one of them unless Michael Redd shocks everyone and opts out of his $18.3M player option. That said, the Bucks? limited salary obligations for 2011 and beyond make them an interesting trade partner for any team that loses out on the big FA?s but still wants to make a splash in terms of talent.
? Projected 2010 Salary [Michael Redd?s player option, Andrew Bogut, Brandon Jennings, Carlos Delfino, Dan Gadzuric, Charlie Bell, Ersan Ilyasova, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and Jodie Meeks]:
? Projected cap room: $2.3M
Minnesota: Just about the only thing the Clippers have done right in recent years is provide a decent template for how teams can use cap space to improve talents in ways other than free agency. Regardless of whether it is fair or not, it appears unlikely that high-end free agents (except Rudy Gay, possibly) will seriously consider it as a place to sign. Even then, Minnesota can use the space to trade for some quality talent and/or draft picks. One big benefit for their front office is that their main guys on the roster are all signed for a meaningful period of time to reasonable deals, which increases their flexibility and makes long-term salary estimations that much easier to make.
? Projected 2010 Salary [Al Jefferson, Kevin Love, Jonny Flynn, Ramon Sessions, Ryan Gomes, Corey Brewer, Ryan Hollins, Wayne Ellington, and Nathan Jawai?s qualifying offer]:
? Projected cap room: $17.3M
New Jersey: I?ve said it before and I?ll say it a few more times before June: The Nets are a sleeping giant in a special, special situation. Like the recently discussed T-Wolves, the Nets have their core on extremely reasonable deals, but what makes them different is that they combine that with a more desirable locations for free agents in the long term and a new owner who should be willing to spend what it will take to keep the team competitive. While 2011 is a reasonable option as well and should be used to fall back on if the big boys go elsewhere, the Nets? combination of talent, location, and cap flexibility makes them an underrated force in the free agent market. Couple that with a very good shot at the #1 pick and the fact that their biggest holes are SF and PF and you?ve got a nice formula for an impact?
? Projected 2010 Salary [Devin Harris, Brook Lopez, Keyon Dooling?s buy-out, Yi Jianlian, Terrance Williams, Courtney Lee, and CDR]:
? Projected cap room: $30.5M
New Orleans: They?ve made their bed, for better or for worse. As a team that is miles over the 2010 cap already, regardless of what they do with little in the form of expiring contracts, the Hornets will not be a factor in 2010 unless they choose to move a substantial part of their core.
? Projected 2010 Salary [Chris Paul, David West, Emeka Okafor, James Posey, Peja Stojakovic, Morris Peterson, Darius Songalia?s player option, Darren Collison, Julian Wright, and Marcus Thornton]:
? Projected cap room: None
New York: Let?s get this out of the way first- moving the guys they moved to have some space for 2010 was absolutely the right decision by Donnie Walsh. The Knicks team he inherited was going nowhere and creating a situation where the highest profile team on the East Coast can sign big name free agents helps keep them on the radar even when they?ll probably be on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs. While the Knicks do not have the space of a few other squads thanks to Eddy Curry and Jared Jeffries? contracts, they have more than enough to make a major impact. One major problem for New York is the lack of assets that could be used to dump their 2010 albatrosses, particularly a draft pick. We may see the Knicks as a larger figure in 2011 thanks to additional cap space and momentum in Coach D?Antoni?s system.
? Projected 2010 Salary [Eddy Curry, Jared Jeffries, Danilo Gallinari, Jordan Hill, Wilson Chandler, and Toney Douglas]:
? Projected cap room: $25.2M
Oklahoma City: Unlike the other young teams with some space this summer, Sam Presti has a little sense of urgency in terms of using his available room in 2010. Since Kevin Durant is eligible for an extension at the end of the summer, this off-season has two separate goals. First, the window for true cap space will effectively close after this summer if he re-signs, coupled with the fact that both Nenad Kristic and Nick Collison?s deals that expire in 2011 balance Durant?s prospective deal, meaning that the space is a little more permanent in terms of long-term accounting. Secondly, it very well may be that the Durantula would like to see a little more talent on this squad before committing for another five seasons. Either way, the Zombie Sonics have the PG, SG, and SF spots on lock now, which is simply incredible for a team with space and two first round draft picks. Like Minnesota, they may end up using that space in a trade for the right big man rather than a new signing, but the space needs to be used this summer.
? Projected 2010 Salary [Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook, Nenad Kristic?s player option, Nick Collison, James Harden, Thabo Sefolosha, Eric Maynor, BJ Mullens, Serge Ibaka, DJ White]:
? Projected cap room: $13.5M
Orlando: Like a vast majority of the other current top-tier teams, Orlando is locked in roster-wise for the long term. This puts them a long, long way out of the 2010 derby unless another team is interested in a trade or a major player wants to take a gargantuan paycut. Keep an eye on Marcin Gortat- it would not be surprising to see a team give up some assets to get him this summer.
? Projected 2010 Salary [Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, Vince Carter, Jameer Nelson, Marcin Gortat, Mickael Pietrus, Brandon Bass, Matt Barnes, Ryan Anderson, and JJ Redick?s qualifying offer]:
? Projected cap room: None
Philadelphia: Ouch. They committed to their current roster and now pretty much have to live with the consequences of that unless they are willing to move a guy like Andre Iguodala.
? Projected 2010 Salary [Elton Brand, Andre Iguodala, Samuel Dalembert, Louis Williams, Willie Green, Thaddeus Young, Marreese Speights, Jrue Holiday, and Jason Smith]:
? Projected cap room: None
Phoenix: Since Nash already signed his extension, the Suns are in an interesting place when it comes to 2010. If Amare opts out and signs elsewhere, Phoenix could have some cap space available to spend on free agents, though their situation is complicated a little by Channing Frye having a player option and likely looking for a longer contract, a higher annual salary, or both. That said, we could see the Suns save that money should the situation arise because Jason Richardson comes off the books for 2011 and they will not have any big money extensions to dole out then.
? Projected 2010 Salary [Steve Nash, Amare?s cap hold, Jason Richardson, Leandro Barbosa, Grant Hill?s player option, Channing Frye?s player option, Goran Dragic, Earl Clark, Robin Lopez, Jared Dudley, and Taylor Griffin]:
? Projected cap room: None
Portland: The Blazers? cap window closed right at the start of this season with the extensions to Roy and Aldridge. That sense of urgency led to the Andre Miller signing because they wanted to maximize their one shot at adding a free agent for more than the MLE. Either way, Portland does not have a ton of wiggle room in terms of cap room or roster space, so it is hard to see them being a factor in the free agent market unless it comes via a sign-and-trade.
? Projected 2010 Salary [Brandon Roy, Greg Oden, LaMarcus Aldridge, Andre Miller, Martell Webster, Jerryd Bayless, Rudy Fernandez, Nicolas Batum, Patty Mills, Dante Cunningham, and Jeff Pendergraph]:
? Projected cap room: None
Sacramento: With a few really nice pieces in place, the Kings have some tough decisions to make this summer. Considering nearly their whole rotation is locked up on deals through 2011-2012, the front office could choose to make a meaningful signing for either of the next two years with eight-digit cap space. One indicator to watch is if Spencer Hawes signs an extension before next season, since that would make Sacto?s long-term accounting even clearer.
? Projected 2010 Salary [Kevin Martin, Tyreke Evans, Andres Nocioni, Beno Udrih, Francisco Garcia, Spencer Hawes, Jason Thompson, Omri Casspi, Donte Greene, and Hilton Armstrong?s qualifying offer]:
? Projected cap room: $8M
San Antonio: Trading for Richard Jefferson completely took them out of the 2010 Sweepstakes, though their space would have been generated by not re-signing Manu, so they were never going to be factors in the first place. Besides the aforementioned Ginobili and Roger Mason, Los Spurs have their rotation locked up for next season, so don?t expect too much turnover in the short term.
? Projected 2010 Salary [Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu?s cap hold, Richard Jefferson, Antonio McDyess, George Hill, DeJuan Blair, Roger Mason?s cap hold, and Marcus Haislip?s team option]:
? Projected cap room: None
Toronto: Though they would have a small amount of space if Chris Bosh moves south this summer, it?s so close to the MLE that it does not mean a whole lot. Bryan Colangelo put in his lot with the Hedo signing, and we will have to see whether or not that works out.
? Projected 2010 Salary [Chris Bosh?s cap hold, Andrea Bargnani, Hedo Turkoglu, Jose Calderon, Jarrett Jack, Reggie Evans, Marcus Banks, DeMar DeRozan, and Marco Belinelli]:
? Projected cap room: None
Utah: The contracts this summer for Paul Millsap and Mehmet Okur put the Jazz out the free agent derby this summer, though they should be under the luxury tax pretty safely. Of course, what they do with Carlos Boozer between now and then could have a substantial impact on this summer. One compelling move they could make this summer is a dealing Andrei Kirilenko?s soon to be expiring deal for another 2011-expiring that makes less money to ensure that the Jazz are OK in terms of the tax.
? Projected 2010 Salary [Deron Williams, Okur, Millsap, AK47, CJ Miles, Kosta Koufos, Ronnie Price, and Ronnie Brewer?s qualifying offer]:
? Projected cap room: None
Washington: Put ?em up! Unless Agent Pick One?s contract gets voided before this off-season, Washington will not have any space above the MLE to sign free agents. That said, they have some compelling expiring contracts in Mike Miller, Mike James, and Brendan Haywood that can be used in deals before the deadline or sign-and-trades this summer. The other major number to consider for the Wizards is where the luxury tax line ends up, since they?re sticking right up at the cap for 2010-2011 already with only eight players under contract.
? Projected 2010 Salary [Arenas, Jamison, Butler, DeShawn Stevenson, Andray Blatche, Nick Young, JaVale McGee, and Randy Foye?s qualifying offer]:
? Projected cap room: None