Seemingly small differences typically get magnified in predictions like seeding for example. As such, the way that I do them is to put teams in tiers; what a tier means is that I would not be surprised if teams within a tier went in any order, but I would be surprised to see a team over or underperform their group.
Also, the tiers in the Western and Eastern Conference do not correspond since the lines of separation are at different point.
One more point: These tiers are for regular season records only- some teams will outproduce or underproduce relative to their seed in the playoffs.
Western Conference
Tier One ? Under My Thumb
Lakers: Just as it was last year, the Lakers are the clear-cut favorite to have homecourt in the conference. Adding Matt Barnes and replacing Jordan Farmar with Steve Blake should make them a more dangerous regular season team, though Kobe Bryant?s knee could change that in an instant.
Tier Two ? Can?t You Hear Me Knocking
Mavericks: In many ways, this tier will be decided by how quickly the young guns can catch up with the old hands in terms of regular season record. Adding some big man depth in the person of Tyson Chandler, while also potentially finding a role for Rodrique Beaubois that better suits his talents and this team keeps the Mavs on the top of this tier?for now.
Thunder: The current media darlings give fans and press all the reason in the world to be optimistic: a young team that genuinely plays for each other, an unassuming superstar, great coach, and a strong home atmosphere. The lingering issue is that they did not improve dramatically in terms of personnel, though Cole Aldrich should help their interior depth, as will more Serge Ibaka.
Blazers: A fully healthy Blazers team is the biggest threat to the Lakers in the postseason since they have the big man depth to give Los Angeles bigs fits while having enough on the perimeter to compete on both ends of the floor. The issue is what proportion of the season they will have their full arsenal.
Tier Three ? Losing My Touch
Rockets: Like Portland, Houston?s success in 10-11 depends on how healthy they can stay. The difference between the two is that Portland has a better #1 in Brandon Roy and better depth at C. A fully stocked Houston team can beat just about everyone else in the league, but will we see it all considering Yao Ming?s current status and history?
Spurs: Another year, another battle with age and aging. The possibility that Tony Parker heads elsewhere after this season changes the tone for this team, as does the addition of the underrated Tiago Splitter and James Anderson.
Nuggets: They will be a playoff team as long as their current roster holds (barring major injury, of course). They have the cloud of trades rather than triage, yet that hurts them more because it seems more likely and ascertainable.
Tier Four ? Don?t Stop
Jazz: It seems genuinely strange to have Utah as a fringe playoff team again. That said, they possess neither the depth at the bigs and PG to handle any injury nor the quality swingmen to put them any higher on this list. Likely the biggest beneficiary of any in-season Carmelo trade should one occur.
Suns: Betting against Steve Nash has become a fool?s errand in recent years, as last year?s playoffs show oh so clearly. Losing Amare Stoudemire and not replacing him with parallel quality will prove disastrous, though Nash and their bench can keep them firmly in the mix for the last few spots even without him.
Hornets: Some people forget just how good a healthy Chris Paul can be. Their biggest problems are the potential for implosion (either by injury or self-imposed exile) and the fact that they still have no depth on the interior. Maybe keeping cheap draft picks instead of dumping them for money could have helped out?
Warriors: Finally possessing a starting lineup that is playoff-worthy if it stays intact stands as a major milestone for Golden State. However, their injuries to Ekpe Udoh and Lou Amundson have already shattered the frontcourt depth necessary to move up in this tier.
Grizzlies: Talent at every starting position, yet strange depth and poorly fitting personnel without a coherent way to beat people (though that can come with their talent) puts Memphis exactly where they were last season.
Clippers: Their ceiling is the highest of any team in this tier except for possibly Utah. The lingering question is whether this team can hold together after so many years of listlessness (with the exception of the playoff year, though very few guys on this squad played in LA then). That said, Vinny Del Negro seems more likely than Mike Dunleavy to hold things together, thus putting them as a team that can make the post-season.
Tier Five ? Time is on My Side
Kings: Still a year away, adding DeMarcus Cousins and Samuel Dalembert makes for a frontcourt than con produce both now and later. The lack of corresponding talent/depth on the perimeter makes them a team that does not appear likely to make noise at the end of the year while still showing major glimmers for the future with another lottery pick and some cap flexibility to work with.
Timberwolves: Ouch. Nothing quite like dumping a guy as good as Al Jefferson for scraps and then using your cap space on filler guys. Kevin Love should produce like gangbusters for them, but they need at least three other guys to step up in a big way to be dangerous game in and game out.
Eastern Conference
Tier One ? Get Off of My Cloud
Heat: Even without Mike Miller, the Heat should be an excellent regular season team. Their combination of star power and role players gives other teams fits in a way the Eastern Conference has not seen in some time.
Magic: Orlando is better in the regular season than in the postseason, considering their talent and continuity. It?ll be interesting to see if they can or do shake it up after seeing what the rest of the conference has to offer.
Celtics: If Kendrick Perkins was healthy to start the season, Boston would be over Orlando here. That said, I?d take a three-seed Celtics over a two-seeded Magic any day of the week, so the urgency to scrap for every win should not be present again this time. Such a good playoff team if things shake out right.
Tier Two ? You Can?t Always Get What You Want
Bulls: We finally get to see what Derrick Rose can do as a lead guard with legitimate scoring talent around him. I still wonder how they are going to keep teams from stacking the lane against them when Kyle Korver is off the floor, since no one else on roster can drill threes.
Hawks: Congratulations, Atlanta. You?ll be right in this 4-5-6 mix until you make serious changes to your roster. It has its advantages (making the playoffs) and its disadvantages (see: last year).
Bucks: Much like a few Western Conference teams, a full-strength Bucks team can put a charge into teams much higher on their list. Andrew Bogut and Brandon Jennings have a mass of forwards and the return of John Salmons to make teams work hard on both ends.
Tier Three ? Tumbling Dice
76ers: Much like Memphis, the 76ers are a team with talent and without an identity. Unlike Memphis, they will play decent defense. That?s enough to put them in the playoff hunt for the last two slots in the East. Watch out for Spencer Hawes- he could add a different dimension to this team.
Knicks: While clearly a better overall team than last year, we still have to see how New York?s rotation works out past the major players. I?m not remotely sold on Felton playing the Steve Nash role for Amare and the team has plenty of other talent and question marks at each position.
Bobcats: A playoff team last season, Charlotte has to see if losing the aforementioned Felton and Tyson Chandler without garnering much in return balances out with a full year of Stephen Jackson and the boom/bust potential of both Kwame Brown and DJ Augustin. Their defense keeps them in the mix in every game.
Pacers: Such a fascinating team because they did pretty well despite both an avalanche of injuries and a roster that needed more talent. Adding Darren Collison should give them the best PG play they have had in eons and we?ll have to see whether Granger, Hibbert, and however they handle the power forward situation can make them tougher at both ends of the floor.
Tier Four ? Mixed Emotions
Pistons: What a strange hodgepodge of players. The lack of a PG and coherent frontcourt rotation hurts them immensely, as does the strange feeling that all of their vets other than Ben Wallace could be in other colors by the end of the season.
Nets: Obviously a trade for a talented Western Conference player could have them jump a tier or two, yet the indefiniteness coupled with the lack of a #1 guy right now keeps CSKA Trenton out of the playoff mix for the moment.
Wizards: How quickly can their team mesh? The Wizards have so many intriguing pieces from the headliner John Wall to enigmatic bigs JaVale McGee and Andray Blatche. If Gilbert Arenas can still be any semblance of an impact player in the league, they can move quickly into a weak bottom of the Eastern Conference playoff picture.
Tier Five ? Anybody Seen My Baby? (or Miss You or All Over Now or Paint it Black or Shattered)
Cavaliers: This season should provide an amazing experiment as we get to see what a largely similar Cavs team can do without LeBron. My guess? Lots and lots of losing without a strong primary ballhandler and offensive focal point
Raptors: It is genuinely hard to figure out how they will beat people. The lack of a potent and coherent offensive and defensive identity coupled with insufficient talent means the beginning of a long road back for a great fanbase.
Award Predictions:
MVP: LeBron James. OKC falling short of unfairly high expectations, a Cleveland team at the bottom of the East, and the possibility of a Kobe deterioration make The Chosen One still the favorite.
Coach of the Year: Phil Jackson. C?mon.
Rookie of the Year: John Wall. The lack of a scorer in the ROY race makes this more compelling, and Wall playing a bigger role in the Wizards? success takes him over a very strong push from Blake Griffin.
Defensive Player of the Year: Joakim Noah. The absence of Kendrick Perkins and voter fatigue for Dwight could lead to an opening that could lead to a guy like Noah winning by hype (and playing with a legit defensive coach and next to an abomination of a D guy in Boozer).
6th Man of the Year: Mike Miller. Yes, even if he starts playing in January.
Most Improved Player: Robin Lopez. Steve Nash is a one man MIP-making machine and Lopez fits the profile of a guy who shouldn?t win the award but voters love.
Playoff predictions
Western Conference Finals:
Lakers over Mavs in five
Eastern Conference Finals:
Heat over Celtics in six
NBA Finals
Heat over Lakers in six
Feel free to e-mail Daniel at Daniel.leroux@realgm.com or follow him on Twitter @DannyLeroux