After a summer of discontent in New Orleans, spurred on by Chris Paul’s unhappiness over the team’s uncompetitive roster, things turned a corner for the Hornets last month.

The team raced out to an 8-0 record and were 11-1 following a win over the Kings on Nov. 21. Their early schedule wasn’t exactly a complete cakewalk either, with victories coming against Denver, San Antonio, Miami and Dallas.

In addition to a high rate of winning, Paul was both happy and far from overworked. He scored 15 points or fewer in six of those first 11 wins and has been playing fewer minutes and being taxed less thanks to a deeper rotation and help from his teammates.

What had been a one man show starring Paul turned into a team effort under rookie coach Monty Williams. Ian Thomsen even penned a piece for Sports Illustrated trumpeting the team’s turnaround and their successful three-headed decision-making department (Williams, general manager Dell Demps and president Hugh Weber).

The life cycle of the average hornet, the largest eusocial wasp, is less than a month, which is ironically how long New Orleans’ success lasted.

They have lost nine of their last 12 games, including debacles against the Clippers and 76ers. After beating top-shelf teams like the Spurs and Mavericks, they have recently lost to middling clubs such as the Knicks.

It’s clear that the Hornets aren’t the team they were to begin the season.

After allowing just one team to score 100 points in their first 12 games, the Hornets have surrendered four such efforts in their last dozen games. There is more than a defensive regression, however, at the heart of their recent downturn.

Here is a look at some statistical indicators over their first 24 games:

Stat: During First 12 Games, During Last 12 Games

Points For: 97.5, 88.9

Points Against: 90.4, 93.6

FG%: 46.01, 44.8

FG% Against: 42.8, 45.6

Rebound Differential: -1.08, -0.6

Turnover Differential: -1.33, +1.33

3PT%: 39.7, 34.7

3PT% Against: 31.7, 35

Possessions per 48 Minutes: 90.7, 88.8

The reason for the Hornets’ reversal of fortune is clear in the numbers: they simply aren’t playing as well. They are scoring fewer points and allowing more. They are shooting percentages have gone down, while their opponents are making more shots. New Orleans is also turning the ball over more than the opposition in their last 12 games after the opposite was true to begin the season.

During their 11-1 start, their defensive field goal percentage (42.8) was at the top of the league. Now, just a few weeks later they rank ninth (43.9). The difference in two fewer possessions per game isn’t drastic for the Hornets, especially since they rank in the bottom sixth of the league overall this season. Williams has turned their focus towards defense and a slower pace than they have been known for in recent years.

The difference in their scoring splits is vast enough to predict/explain their fall, but the rest of their numbers would only explain a minor slump -- not a run of nine losses in 12 games.

Looking back, the tipping point of their struggles might not even be found in any box score or by analyzing any statistic.

For this piece, I’ve separated the Hornets’ season into 12-game segments. New Orleans played their 12th game on Nov. 21, beating the then 4-8 Kings by a narrow margin (75-71). Their losing skid began immediately after.

No player suffered an injury around that time, so what happened?

On Nov. 20, the Hornets acquired Jarrett Jack, David Anderson and Marcus Banks in a five-player trade that saw Jerryd Bayless and Peja Stojakovic go to the Raptors.

On paper, the trade makes a good amount of sense for New Orleans.  Jack may not have the promise of Bayless, but he’s bigger and can be on the court at the same time as Paul without having a detrimental effect on the team’s defense.  

The difference between what we saw in the first three weeks of the season and the team we’ve seen over the last three weeks can’t be explained solely by the Bayless-for-Jack swap.

Still, the move came at a strange time and there’s no denying that New Orleans has been a different team since the deal was struck.

 

Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com. You can also follow Andrew on Twitter: APerna7.