We have created a year-end team portfolio ranking for the NBA. The exercise is to evaluate every team as if they were a portfolio of assets to determine which is most valuable in terms of their on-floor capabilities.
The only considerations are talent, age, cap flexibility and future draft picks with the goal being to eventually compete for and win the NBA Finals. An older team already contending is more highly valued than a younger team with a ton of talent that may not get there, but the younger team with upside is a better bet than an older team that’s currently better but without the upside.
There is no consideration given to team location, history, head coach, general manager or owner. The exercise is to isolate the conditions of the assets to assess their value.
The NBA has an ever-changing landscape but this creation of a hierarchal ranking gives a look to how we would pick their collective situations at the end of 2015.
- Also see RealGM's Year-End Team Portfolio Rankings for the NFL, MLB and Soccer. We also welcome a submission of your personal list in the comments section.
30. Brooklyn Nets: The second half of this decade for the Nets (and Celtics further up this list) is defined by their ill-fated trade for Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Jason Terry. Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young are fine mid-career pieces, but the Nets don’t have enough collective talent to compete and are unable to reap a high draft choice in 2016, 2017 or 2018 since they are going straight to the Celtics in the first and last of those years and the middle one is a pick swap.
29. Dallas Mavericks: The Mavericks owe just one first round pick to the Celtics and it has flat 1-7 pick protection from 2016 until 2021, but the roster doesn’t have any of the high upside early twenties players one would want to build around. Chandler Parsons is the closest thing the Mavericks have to that player and he can become a free agent in 2016.
28. Los Angeles Lakers: Julius Randle and D’Angelo Russell haven’t shown as much promise so far this season as expected but there still is a good chance of them each developing into at least league-average starters. The Lakers owe first round picks to the 76ers and Magic, but the odds of them keeping it this year and being able to add a top-3 player is a precarious gamble and unsubtly the best shot they have.
27. Charlotte Hornets: Kemba Walker, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Jeremy Lamb are under team control on reasonable deals through 2019 and they own all of their own picks, plus what could be highly valuable second rounders from the Nets in 2018 and 2019. But there are a lot of free agent decisions to be made in 2016, most notably Al Jefferson and Nicolas Batum. The Hornets have been playing good basketball this season but there isn’t a potential top-25 player here unless Kidd-Gilchrist develops a jumper.
26. Portland Trail Blazers: Damian Lillard is a two-time All-Star but he’s already 25 after coming into the NBA after four seasons at Weber State and is a defensive liability. There are a lot of helpful pieces that match the direction of the NBA on desirable contracts, so there’s at least some material to work with. The Blazers owe a non-lottery pick to the Nuggets, but that gets converted to a second rounder after 2017.
25. Memphis Grizzlies: Marc Gasol is signed through 2019 and should remain in the conversation for best all-around center in the NBA during the life of that deal, but there’s a lot of unknowns after him. Mike Conely is a free agent this offseason and they owe first round picks to the Nuggets and Celtics. There hasn’t been enough wins in the draft to keep the Grizzlies’ run going as they age.
24. Atlanta Hawks: Without the free agency of Al Horford hovering over this roster, they would certainly be higher on the list. Jeff Teague and Paul Millsap are two of 11 players slated for free agency in 2017. The draft picks from the Joe Johnson trade were squandered even as they unexpectedly created a contender.
23. Sacramento Kings: The Kings have a top-15 player in the entire NBA who also happens to be a throwback big man who can also play in today’s style in DeMarcus Cousins, but the trade with the 76ers to create additional cap space in the 2015 offseason is already an all-time catastrophe right there with the Nets/Celtics deal. The Kings already still owed a first rounder to the Bulls from a 2011 trade with the Cavs that has taken forever to settle and now have further obligations for 2017 and 2018. As surprisingly good as Rajon Rondo has played, the Kings would be at least 10 spots higher on this list had they drafted Emmanuel Mudiay instead of Willie Cauley-Stein and retained those future firsts.
22. New York Knicks: The Knicks don’t have a second round pick of their own until 2022, but they have three owed to them while they owe their first rounder to the Raptors to finally and ecstatically close the Andrea Bargnani trade. Kristaps Porzingis looks like a future All-Star and Carmelo Anthony still has game and trade value despite being firmly in his thirties. For meaningful improvement, the Knicks are reliant on cap space.
21. Denver Nuggets: The Nuggets have several starter quality players plus a potential franchise player in Emmanuel Mudiay, and multiple incoming first rounders to go with their own. The Nuggets are as much the Western Conference version of the Celtics as the Suns are with their mix of players and picks.
20. Toronto Raptors: If Kyle Lowry were a few years younger, the Raptors would have been better ranked on this list. Jonas Valanciunas is on an affordable long-term contract, but DeMar DeRozan is a free agent in the offseason. The Raptors get a bonus first rounder this year and next, which may help them acquire a much needed younger potential starter quality piece.
19. Indiana Pacers: Paul George has returned to being one of the best all-around players in the NBA and he doesn’t become a free agent until 2018, but the rest of the roster is fairly pedestrian. Myles Turner has promise to be a floor stretching rim protector, which could change the equation depending on his development. The Pacers interestingly are the only team in the NBA to own all of their picks and have none owed to them.
18. Miami Heat: Chris Bosh is signed through 2019 and he will remain one of the more valuable bigs in the NBA for the life of the deal. Goran Dragic is also signed through 2019, though we’re no longer sure that’s a good thing, especially when looking at the two first round picks they owe the Suns. Even the Heat still don’t seem sure what they have in Hassan Whiteside to go with his complicated contract situation not owning his Bird Rights.
17. Phoenix Suns: The Suns have had a strange path of asset management during Ryan McDonough’s tenure as general manager in which they have been sliding towards contention and backwards to rebuilding.
Eric Bledsoe had played like a top-5 point guard in the NBA this season before his season-ending injury. The Suns were briefly expected to tank every bit as hard as the 76ers in 13-14 before becoming a nice overachieving story. Unfortunately, that path would have been more prudent as going for it has cost the team in a number of ways such as giving up the Lakers’ pick for Brandon Knight, as well as ruining relationships with Goran Dragic and Markieff Morris. The trade of Dragic for several picks from the Heat was a nice consolation.
16. Orlando Magic: The popular refrain of liking the pieces assembled by Rob Hennigan more individually than the somewhat mumbled way they go together feels right even though they’ve swirled together better than expected under Scott Skiles. There may not be a future top-15 player on this roster but there’s a ton of potential top-50 guys. There’s a lot to work with and they also own a future first round pick from the Lakers.
15. Chicago Bulls: The young Derrick Rose is never coming back, Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol are expirings with their best seasons behind them, Nikola Mirotic has a long ways to go with his jumper, and Jimmy Butler isn’t quite the two-way superstar he was projected to be during his breakout contract year. There is enough talent on the aggregate to try again with a different combination without taking a big step backward.
14. Milwaukee Bucks: The disappointing start to the 15-16 season has tempered some of the projections for Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker and Khris Middleton. I’d also much rather have Brandon Knight or the Lakers’ pick than Michael Carter-Williams, as well as the Clippers’ pick in 2017 over one year of Greivis Vasquez. Having Greg Monroe choose Milwaukee was flattering but the combination of Monroe and Carter-Williams in for Knight has really disrupted what made them special. This roster can still create futuristic new worlds even though it is looking like they will have more imperfections than not and Jason Kidd’s meddling as general manager has seemed to really send them off course so far.
13. Washington Wizards: The recurring injuries to Bradley Beal are a concern and there is not enough overall talent to tempt you know who, but John Wall keeps getting better and is a clear top-15 talent. The frontcourt is old and stuck between the old NBA and the new NBA, but there is significant cap space in each of the next two summers.
12. Philadelphia 76ers: The amount of work that needs to be done to create even a functional basketball roster is overwhelming and Sam Hinkie’s non-tanking peers have ended up with better combinations of players through the draft. But this would be a dream job for any general manager to inherit at this very moment if the 76ers parted ways with Hinkie. With all of the extra draft picks Philadelphia is owed, it is like beginning Contra with 30 extra lives.
Hinkie may have erroneously bet too heavily on the value of bigs as the NBA moves smaller, but I still believe in the collective value of Joel Embiid, Nerlens Noel, Jahlil Okafor and Dario Saric to give the 76ers enough of a chance of balancing out the roster.
11. Detroit Pistons: The placement of the Pistons largely depends on how you rate Andre Drummond, but the trade to acquire and eventually re-sign Reggie Jackson has been one of the better examples of simple opportunism in recent years to setup a nice partnership. Brandon Jennings has trade value as an expiring contract for a playoff contender needing a point guard, while Stanley Johnson, Marcus Morris and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are a young and serviceable supporting core.
10. Boston Celtics: The Celtics have a roster full of tradable components but not any one player who would be a top-2, or even possibly a top-3 player, on a title contender. This position at 10 is more of a reflection of the combination of those players and all of those draft picks with the potential they contain to do something dramatic to acquire multiple players who are capable of being the best player on a title contender than the trajectory of their status quo.
But at the same time, those existing players and draft picks only represent so much value and Danny Ainge couldn’t even trade in four picks to trade up for Justise Winslow despite multiple teams having that offer presented to them. This is discouraging to one’s patience and the exercise of taking the Celtics from Point B to Point C is probably the most precarious position any GM in the NBA is facing even if it is a good problem to have.
9. Utah Jazz: Derrick Favors is far more talented than nearly anyone gives him credit for possessing and Rudy Gobert is a true defensive force who will hopefully improve incrementally on offense. Gordon Hayward isn’t an All-Star wing but he’s a multi-dimensional talent that fits well and can occasionally act as one late in games. Utah is also owed first rounders from the Warriors and Thunder along with seven total second rounders over the next three years to go with a favorable cap situation. Dante Exum’s ACL injury put them and him, who I remain extremely high on, a year behind schedule.
8. New Orleans Pelicans: A team with a recently signed 22-year-old Anthony Davis should be higher on this list, but he seems destined to spend the next few years of his career in dispiriting isolation. Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans have had injury issues and are generally on a tier below what’s needed to compete for a title, while Ryan Anderson is an expiring and there is a ton of money on the books for centers they’re probably better off without.
As great as Davis is currently and as scary transcendent as he will eventually become, there isn’t a compelling argument to be made that any of the remaining teams would be better off trading their best two players straight-up for him.
7. Minnesota Timberwolves: The Wolves’ rebuild hasn’t exactly been intricate and complicated but it has been swift in converting Kevin Love into Andrew Wiggins, followed up by having a bad enough 14-15 season to win the lottery for Karl-Anthony Towns. There are several more moves for the team to make, further development for Towns and Wiggins, and an overall modernization process before they’re a playoff contender, but the principal pieces are in place for the Wolves.
6. Houston Rockets: There is almost a traditional feel to the composition of the Rockets with their pair of superstars and a supporting cast of high quality role players. James Harden and Dwight Howard, for all of their faults, are capable of being the best player of virtually any playoff series. Howard will be a free agent and they almost become more intriguing if he leaves given how good Clint Capela has been this season if the cap space is spent wisely.
Daryl Morey has built his entire career trying to turn quarters into dollars, but they actually need two or three of those ever-elusive half dollars more to support Harden.
5. Los Angeles Clippers: Blake Griffin and Chris Paul are true franchise players while DeAndre Jordan is a unique talent despite his limitations and overrated defensive impact. J.J. Redick is an ideal fourth piece with his perimeter shooting and his effort on defense. The choices made for the supporting cast, and how they were acquired in some of the instances, have become obstacles. The Clippers also have limited ways of getting meaningfully better outside of trading Paul to turn back the clock on their timeline of contention with another backcourt player and system around Griffin and Jordan.
4. San Antonio Spurs: Even without the apparatus of the old guard that has become the supporting cast for Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge, those two players would be compelling to build around starting from scratch. We continue to witness Leonard improve his game on offense and evolve into an MVP caliber player. We’re not factoring head coach/general manager/owner in this equation, but if we were and we knew Gregg Popovich would coach for another decade, it would be difficult not to have the Spurs ranked first or second. Their system is at a point where it is unexplainable. Who knows how critical Jonathan Simmons will be in countering teams like the Warriors, while Boban Marjanovic is now on everyone’s radar in those PERiffic limited minutes.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder: We all know what station Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook live and thrive, while Serge Ibaka is perpetually underrated and underappreciated for his defense and floor stretching. Taking control of this roster, even with the money owed to Enes Kanter and Kyle Singler, and you would have confidence in finally giving the best 1-2 combination in the NBA since Shaq and Kobe enough wing defense and three-point shooting to win a title. Durant and Westbrook just turned 27 and have had injury issues so the urgency of the timetable is fully engaged.
2. Cleveland Cavaliers: LeBron James on his own remains the single most valuable force in the NBA even though he’s at a point in his career where he’s already played more games than he has still remaining. Whether or not he’s still the best player in the NBA is an open debate but nobody else could have taken what was remaining of the Cavaliers in the Finals to a sixth game.
Fortunately, there is a whole lot more there for James to work with in Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. These aren’t the perfect two-way stars one would necessarily choose to build a team around as franchise players, but they’re both offensive savants.
The Cavs’ payroll is indefinitely expensive with those three along with Tristan Thompson, Iman Shumpert and Matthew Dellavedova, and possibly even more so in 2016 with Timofey Mozgov.
1. Golden State Warriors: There are other teams who may have more talent in the aggregate, but the combination here of players who fit so uncommonly well together on reasonable contracts and so much of their prime remaining puts them first in the NBA.
In a vacuum, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson may not be franchise players on their own, but in this situation with Stephen Curry, their fit is perfect. That trio allows for an easier plug and play system of role players that maximizes the impact of the likes of Andre Iguodala, Harrison Barnes, Shaun Livingston and Andrew Bogut. On top of that, Festus Ezeli is a young and improving big that will be a restricted free agent with Barnes in the offseason.
The Warriors don’t have their own first round pick in 2017 and have no second round picks until 2019, but they have enough future picks available to trade if they need to add a major piece at some point to sustain their run.
- Also see RealGM's Year-End Team Portfolio Rankings for the NFL, MLB and Soccer.