Every offseason an under the radar free agent unexpectedly gets a massive contract and everyone’s eyes get as wide as dinner plates as they read the contract terms. This past summer some players fitting that bill were Jon Leuer, E’Twaun Moore and Dwight Powell. In previous years, players like Al-Farouq Aminu, Paul Millsap and DeMarre Carroll have qualified. NBA General Managers are always searching for the next big thing. Sometimes that means going all in to get the services of a player that the average fans aren’t as familiar with.
Below is a list of 11 players who might see bigger contracts than you are expecting this summer. Why 11? Lists of 10 are so blasé, and it is the holiday season. Consider the 11th my gift to you! (All Stats as of games played through 12/14/16)
11. Justin Holiday – Knicks – Shooting Guard – Unrestricted Free Agent
Holiday is the definition of NBA journeyman. He’s played for five teams over the course of his four-year NBA career. He was a throw-in from Chicago to New York in the Derrick Rose trade. However, since joining the Knicks, Holiday has found himself with his first full time role in the NBA. He’s functioned as the Knicks' primary backup shooting guard and he’s delivered 6.3 PPG and over 36% from behind the arc. Holiday is also a solid rebounder at 3.2 RPG in just under 19 MPG. He won’t be a star, but he’s proven he can be a rotation player in the NBA as a 3 and D-lite option.
10. Alan Williams – Suns – Forward/Center – Restricted Free Agent
Williams might the deepest sleeper of all players on this list. He’s only played in 19 NBA games over the course of two seasons and only 158 total minutes. But what Williams has shown in that limited time is one elite skill: rebounding. Per 36 Minutes stats can be somewhat misleading, but rebounding generally translates fairly well. For his limited career, Williams has grabbed 17.5 rebounds per 36 minutes. That rate puts him in elite company around the league. He’s also a rugged defender at 6’8’’, 260 pounds. He’s athletic enough to block some shots and loves to bang inside. For a rebound needy team, they would do well to sign Williams and let him do his thing. And given the Suns' plethora of power forwards, they won’t extend far to match on Williams.
9. Joffrey Lauvergne – Thunder – Forward/Center – Restricted Free Agent
Lauvergne struggled to carve out a role with the Nuggets and they shipped him to Oklahoma City this summer for the paltry price of two second round picks. Since joining the Thunder, Lauvergne has carved out a role as a fourth big and could handle even more responsibility. He’s not a great scorer inside, but he’s athletic enough to get up for lobs and to finish over bigger player. He has a nice shooting touch all the way to the arc and shows a good basketball IQ as well. His defense is surprisingly good and he can hedge and recover better than most players his size. He’s not a shot blocker, but understands verticality enough to be effective at defending the rim. Finally, he’s shown a good nose for the ball in rebounding action. Considering bigs always get paid, Lauvergne is looking at a nice pay day this summer. And with the Thunder just having paid Victor Oladipo and Steven Adams, and Andre Roberson pending, their dollars might not stretch far enough for Lauvergne.
8. Ian Clark – Warriors – Guard – Unrestricted Free Agent
Clark has gone from end of the bench backup with the Jazz to trusted, playoff rotation player with the Warriors. With a bigger role than ever after the departures of Leandro Barbosa and Brandon Rush, Clark has stepped up at exactly the right time. He’s averaging 6.6 PPG and has been one of Golden State’s most reliable contributors off what has been an unremarkable bench to this point. Beyond just the scoring, Clark is shooting right at 40% from three and just under 50% overall. He can play both guard spots and holds his own defensively at either spot, using his 6’3’’ frame well. With combo guards who can play both PG and SG always in demand, Clark is looking at a big deal this summer. He’s never made more than minimum in his career either, so Golden State might be hard pressed to match what Clark can get on the open market.
7. Jonathon Simmons – Spurs - Shooting Guard – Restricted Free Agent
If you are an athletic wing that is looking for a chance in the NBA, you can’t do any better than landing on the Spurs and Simmons has taken full advantage of his opportunity. His play hasn’t been as strong this season, despite some highlight reel dunks, but he still has a lot of fans around the NBA. At 6’6’’, Simmons has the profile that many teams want from a 3-and-D wing. He shot 38% from deep last season and isn’t afraid to challenge anyone he guards on the perimeter. He uses his speed and length to get out and run on the break as well as any other player in the league, and we all know he can finish at the rim. With another full season playing for Gregg Popovich under his belt, Simmons will have offers to choose from this summer. But don’t bet against the Spurs’ culture and system as favorites to retain Simmons.
6. Langston Galloway – Pelicans – Guard – Unrestricted Free Agent (PO)
Galloway burst on the scene in 2015 as a starter in the second half of the year for the injury ravaged Knicks. With New York bringing in a host of new players this summer, Galloway was squeezed out and landed with New Orleans. He’s been one of the Pelicans' key guards off the bench and he’s averaging 10 PPG in less than 22 MPG. Like Clark, Galloway is a combo guard who can play either guard spot, and that makes him increasingly valuable. His slight advantage over Clark is that Galloway has a slightly longer track record of success. With New Orleans having so many guard options already in E’Twaun Moore, Buddy Hield and Tim Frazier, not to mention veteran free agents Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans, Galloway could leave for another team with more playing time this coming summer.
5. Dewayne Dedmon – Spurs – Center – Unrestricted Free Agent (PO)
Dedmon has gone from D-League call-up to intriguing bench player to key backup big for a contender in surprisingly short fashion. He’s a little older than some of the others on this list, but no less qualified. Let’s start with the easy part: Dedmon isn’t any sort of offensive threat outside of dunks, layups and putbacks. He has no offensive moves at all, but he stays in his lane. He runs the floor, sets solid screens, and gets in position for offensive rebounds. He’s more athletic than you might think, with the ability to get up for alley-oops on a regular basis and has good timing on his screen and roll actions. On the defensive end is where Dedmon contributes. Considering his somewhat limited role, it is appropriate to look at his per 36 stats and they are great. He grabs 14.3 rebounds, blocks 2.9 shots and nabs 1.3 steals per 36 minutes. Bigs always get paid. If Dedmon chooses to opt out, someone will pay him big money to be their defensive anchor.
4. Bojan Bogdanovic – Nets – Forward/Guard – Restricted Free Agent
Bogdanovic has steadily improved over the course of each of his three NBA seasons. He was a reserve for most of his first two years, becoming a full time starter midway through last season. By the end of that year, he was Brooklyn’s best offensive player. The progression continued in the Olympics, where he carried Croatia by scoring 25.3 PPG. Back in the NBA this year, he’s up to 15.2 PPG and impacting games far more than he ever has. With NBA teams always looking for consistent scorers, Bogdanovic has put himself in a prime position to get paid. As a RFA on a team that projects to have plenty of cap space and needs talent, it might take a huge offer to pry Bogdanovic from Brooklyn.
3. Nerlens Noel – 76ers – Center/Forward – Restricted Free Agent
Ok, Noel isn’t at all under the radar. But, because he hasn’t played regularly this year and with all of the Joel Embiid hype, he’s become a bit of a forgotten man for the 76ers. We all know what Noel can do. He’s a difference maker defensively with his ability to hedge on screens and to get back to protect the rim and rebound. His offensive game will probably never be great, but he’ll likely thrive when surrounded by other good offensive players. How much Noel gets paid this summer and from who is probably a question mark of where he finishes this season. If he’s traded, the team that acquires him is likely looking at him as a building block for the future and will go to great lengths to retain him. If he finishes the year with Philadelphia, they’ll likely let him walk to focus on their other talented young big men.
2. Patty Mills – Spurs – Guard – Unrestricted Free Agent
Mills started his career in Portland after being a late second round pick and was largely an afterthought until landing with the Spurs. The Spurs quickly turned Mills into one of the best bench scorers in the NBA. He’s averaged in double figures twice, and is on course to do so for a third time this year, despite starting only 14 career games. Mills has also carried the Australian National Team for years on the international level as their primary scorer. He’s a better defender than you think, and his ability to have an impact as a PG off the ball is tremendous. As more players like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Ben Simmons emerge and teams hand the playmaking to wings, Mills becomes a commodity on the open market. Of course, San Antonio has an aging point guard of their own in Tony Parker and their own playmaking wing in Kawhi Leonard, so Mills might stay right where he is too.
1. JaMychal Green – Grizzlies – Power Forward – Restricted Free Agent
After living life as a D-League call-up on league minimum contracts, Green is about to break the bank this summer. After being one of the Grizzlies’ most consistent players during last season’s injury plagued campaign, Green has become a fulltime starter at power forward this year. Memphis wanted to add a layer of athleticism to their largely ground-bound frontcourt and Green has filled that role well. He’s averaging 9 PPG and 7.9 RPG. David Fizdale has encouraged Green to take open looks from behind the arc when they come to him and the results are mixed, but encouraging. Green possesses a high basketball IQ and is a better passer than you might expect. And his defense has gotten better with each year he’s been in the NBA. With the frontcourt in Memphis aging, it might take a monster offer to get Green away from the Grizzlies. And that offer just might come this summer from a team that is looking to hand their starting power forward role to scrapper who has fought for everything he’s gotten thus far in his NBA career.