Opening Bullets

• I was shocked that Wisconsin’s win over Ohio St. was their first victory over the nation’s #1 ranked team since 1962. How could it have been that long? Wisconsin has a tremendous homecourt advantage, and I think this shows that the Big Ten has not had very many teams ranked #1 during Bo Ryan’s tenure.

• I was not shocked that Villanova’s 46-game winning streak at the Pavilion was snapped Saturday by Pittsburgh. Don’t think for a second that the Pavilion is a tougher place to play than the Wells Fargo Center. The 46-game winning streak was at least partly a function of who they scheduled in that building.  Villanova typically plays its high profile games against ranked teams at Wells Fargo, while playing the weaker teams on its schedule at the Pavilion.  With Pittsburgh undefeated on the road this season, it was not a huge surprise to see Jamie Dixon’s squad finally end the streak.

• Add Florida State to the list of teams that will want new injury splits in a few weeks as Chris Singleton broke his foot. It is hard to see how a player of his caliber will not be missed given that he leads the team in minutes, dominates most of the defensive statistical categories (block rate, steal rate, rebound percentage), and also leads the team in percentage of shots taken while converting at a nice rate. It is just a depressing story. I have had negative things to say about Leonard Hamilton because his once great recruiting classes never panned out. But it is hard not to respect a coach who teaches such great defense, and he deserves a break one of these years.

• Louisville’s Terrence Jennings has consistently been an enigma to me. His efficiency numbers have always been solid, but he often looks tentative out on the court. But all the injuries to Louisville post players this season have finally forced him to take a larger role. And in the last five games, he is averaging 14.2 points and 7.8 rebounds per game while maintaining his high level of efficiency. Obviously the guards, particularly Preston Knowles, were key to Louisville’s victory Saturday, but when Syracuse went up seven in the first half, Jennings went on a personal 6-0 run that started the big Louisville rally. You should not overlook Jennings' contribution to the win.

• The story this week for Illinois was Bruce Weber benching of Demtri McCamey and Mike Tisdale for the start of the Minnesota game.  And at least in that game, McCamey came out with more fire and energy defensively. He had multiple big steals and was diving on the floor for loose balls. The story for McCamey used to be that he was so valuable offensively that he needed to conserve his energy on defense, but now that his offensive game has gone in the tank, he needs to find a new way to contribute. But how often can a coach use gimmicks with a senior? If a player cannot find internal motivation in his final season, it just is not going to happen. And against Purdue, McCamey once again contributed very little after an early steal.

• I’ve said it before, but I continue to be amazed that more teams cannot take advantage of Purdue’s limited size and depth in the paint.  When JaJuan Johnson is the only big man on the floor above 6’6”, it seems like he should get in foul trouble at some point. Is it a case of the “Jordan rules” for a star player? I don’t think so because you very rarely see a play where Johnson should have been whistled for a foul. He just has incredible body control on the defensive end. And the key to all of Purdue’s great interior defense is fantastic ball pressure. If you cannot find a passing lane, it does not matter if your post players have a two or three-inch height advantage.

• By now you’ve probably heard about Cleveland State's Norris Cole posting 41 points, 20 rebounds, and 9 assists. (Why couldn’t his teammates get him one more assist?) What can I say about his performance that has not already been said? Perhaps I should let you know that he played in high school with former Ohio State Buckeye and current NBA guard Daequan Cook.

• I am as excited as anyone about having all four NCAA games in every session available on free TV. But there is one big loser in the new format: Sports Bars.

Dateline Fantastic: 11:05 PM EST on Saturday

This weekend the drama peaked at about 11:05 PM ET on Saturday. At that moment, game-deciding three-pointers were simultaneously waived off in the Pittsburgh - Villanova game and Kansas State - Colorado. At the Pavilion in Philadelphia, with Corey Stokes injured and Corey Fisher fouled out, Villanova needed a new hero. Maalik Wayns caught the ball at the top of the key and swished in a three-pointer, but it was immediately waved off as after the buzzer.

The scene in Boulder was even more dramatic. Leading by three, Colorado elected to foul with 3.9 seconds left, sending Kansas State's Jacob Pullen to the line. Pullen made the first free throw and missed the second free throw intentionally. But it was a brilliant miss. The ball had a high arch and took a long bounce of the rim. Colorado attempted to corral it and the ball kicked out of bounds with 1.1 seconds left. Kansas State now had the ball with a chance to win. Rodney McGruder caught the inbounds while being closely guarded and hit a ridiculous turn-around three pointer. It was a spectacular shot. But after a video review it was determined that McGruder had the ball in his hands for half a second after the light on the backboard went on. Colorado’s victory was preserved.

A situation like this, where Kansas State had a chance to win, makes it seem like fouling in the final seconds is a bad strategy. But do not be fooled. Neither the strategy of fouling when up three, or playing defense when up three, wins the game 100% of the time. Either way, the team in the lead always has a chance to lose. And Colorado came within half a second of having that happen.

Making Adjustments

Players can jump out as surprises for a period of time, but eventually their opponents will respond. Rivals will watch tape and game plan to take away a player’s favorite move. The key to becoming a star is to find a second and third scoring technique when the first option is not available. Case in point, Syracuse’s Rick Jackson has emerged as a dominant scorer this year, but this week he scored only 11 points in two games. Fran Fraschilla claimed it was because teams have learned that he likes to use his right shoulder to get position, and his opponents have adjusted defensively. Maybe that’s true, or maybe the last two games are a fluke. But it clearly seems like teams have found some weaknesses in the Syracuse game plan.

The flip side of the coin is when you see a player expand his game and take his performance to a new level. John Jenkins is going to go down as one of the best three-point shooters in Vanderbilt history. He already has 136 made three pointers in two seasons. And everyone is going to see his performance, 6-of-10 from three point range on Saturday, and continue to praise his spot up shooting. But it was Jenkins' ability to drive the basketball and score around the rim late in the game that had me falling out of my chair. His late interior baskets sealed the victory over Kentucky. Any time a spot-up shooter can diversify his game that is a thing of beauty. And Jenkins' development has been a season-long phenomenon. Jenkins has almost doubled his free throw rate from last season. A great three-point shooter and a driver is a lethal combination.

Random Look Back

Last Monday, I pointed out recent coaching hires who were having a positive impact on their teams. In a stroke of coincidence, three of the coaches on my list had great Wednesday nights. First, Mike Rice kept Rutgers resurgence going when Jonathan Mitchell converted a four point play (three pointer and one) to upset Villanova at the buzzer. Then Iowa’s Fran McCaffery took Wisconsin to overtime. But perhaps the best timing came in that I described Idaho’s Don Verlin as having a positive impact in his first three years with the Vandals. No sooner had I mentioned his name when Verlin’s Idaho team handed Utah State their first WAC conference loss of the season.

One of the questions I also asked last Monday was whether Buzz Williams was an equal or better coach than Tom Crean. The argument in favor of Buzz Williams was that Marquette’s adjusted efficiency margin has been very high in his three years as head coach. But looking a little more closely, I am not sure Williams’ performance is more impressive. Here are the Pomeroy Rankings for the two coaches:

Pomeroy National Rank

Tom Crean
2003 – 16th (the Dwyane Wade team)
2004 – 80th
2005 – 93rd
2006 – 28th
2007 – 38th
2008 – 11th

Buzz Williams
2009 – 19th
2010 – 33rd
2011 – 27th (through Saturday)

Crean looks worse because of his team’s efficiency in 2004 and 2005. But in those years, Marquette was still playing in C-USA. If you compare Crean’s three Big East seasons to Williams’ three Big East seasons, the two coaches look very similar.  Also, Buzz Williams' best year was his first year when he inherited Crean’s three-guard trio of Jerel McNeal, Dominic James, and Wesley Mathews. Thus, Crean probably gets a lot of credit for Williams best season.

Williams’ early efficiency numbers have been fantastic, but I’ll stick by my comment from last week. Williams needs a deep NCAA tournament run before I will call him better than the man he replaced.