Final PASE numbers

Heading into the tournament, I calculated the expected wins for each conference based on the historical performance of the various seeds. Here are the final numbers, for those of you scoring at home: 

Expected Wins after First Four

Random Thoughts on the Championship Game

• Andrew Smith had a huge block early in the game. I wondered if this might change UConn’s willingness to take the ball inside, but it did not. Connecticut remained aggressive at taking the ball to the basket. The Huskies held a 14-0 edge on points in the paint early. And this was obviously Jim Calhoun’s game plan. The first time Tyler Olander was in the game, he took a contested jumper, and he was immediately yanked.

• I practically fell off my couch when Niels Giffey started at the three point line and drove uncontested for a lay-up. I think that surprised Andrew Smith too.

• Wow, Charles Okwandu has hands of stone sometimes. Giffey found him wide open under the basket, and he just dropped it.

• Lots of garbage baskets, where someone picks up a loose ball and then scores. That’s the only way to get an open look. Only three assists in the first 16 minutes.

• Butler does have amazing coverage on those out-of-bounds plays. Why doesn’t UConn just throw it in the backcourt? How many times does Butler have to steal it before they change strategies?

• When Alex Oriakhi went out with his second foul, UConn was up 13-9. With Oriakhi on the bench, Butler went on a 13-6 run to lead by three at halftime.

• Everyone keeps praising Butler’s intelligent decisions, but that was a horrible pass by Shelvin Mack which led to a Jeremy Lamb steal and dunk and gave UConn a 31-26 lead.

• But then the game became a big joke. The teams had started a combined 18-for-72 from the floor, but with Jeremy Lamb getting hot, UConn was able to build a reasonable lead. And Butler kept on missing. I certainly enjoyed the fake applause the audience gave when Butler broke a six minute second half drought to finally reach 30 points. Actually, a lot of it seemed to be coming from the Butler section. I give those fans credit for not giving up.

• “Lowest ever FG% in championsip game.” But hey, they made a bunch of three-pointers, so the eFG% wasn’t nearly as bad.

• Probably the highlight for me, after a brutal game was simply watching the players celebrate at the end. The game might have been rough, but a championship is a championship. Watching Shabazz Napier jump on Jeremy Lamb’s back in the final seconds, you could just see the raw joy on the player’s faces.
• I could come up with a bunch of ways to describe how terrible the game was, but do you really need to read more about that? Let’s move on and start thinking about next year. 

Sleeper Teams for Next Year? 

Teams that give freshman a lot of minutes tend to improve significantly the next season. The biggest jump is usually from freshman to sophomore year. Here are the top-10 teams that gave the most possessions to freshmen this year:

Kentucky gave over half their possessions to their younger players. That’s usually a strong indicator that the team will play better next year. Of course it only works if those players come back. NC State, Michigan, and Stanford could all be real sleepers.

Way Too Early Projections 

Over the course of the summer I will be projecting the standings for 2011-12. This involves several steps. First, I estimate the value of lost seniors, based on the minute and possession weighted tempo free stats. Then, I estimate the value of players lost to early entry, based on the minute and possession weighted tempo free numbers. Finally, I estimate the impact of new recruits and player development. 

Today, I will leave you with just the first step in the process, and no formal numbers. I will simply be projecting how the loss of various seniors should hurt teams. In May, after we know the players in the draft, I will update these standings, removing the early entrants and various transfers. Then in the middle of the summer, I will add in the impact of the recruits. I plan to spend a significant amount of time documenting how various coaches use their new recruits, and how likely players are to develop. As I discussed in this North Carolina and Wisconsin article, the impact of recruits is not the same for all coaches. While some coaches will give freshman ample time, other coaches never let freshman get off the bench. Here is only the first step in the process:

Big East

No team in the country loses more players than St. John’s. And while Steve Lavin worked wonders this year, he is going to need some time to bring St. John’s back around. Don’t forget that three of Notre Dame’s seniors still have eligibility left. Connecticut and Louisville lose almost no players to graduation. But will players leave early for the draft and cause their ranking to fall? Stop back in May for the latest projections.

Big Ten

Ohio St.
Michigan
Wisconsin
Michigan St.
Purdue
Northwestern
Minnesota
Indiana
Illinois
Nebraska
Iowa
Penn St.

Ohio St. still has a slew of talent, and Michigan is surging towards the top of the Big Ten. Penn St. and Illinois lose a ton of rotation players and will need to see some significant player development to play well next year.  Welcome to the Big Ten, Nebraska, I expect a lower division finish. Indiana finally gets out of the cellar, and these projections do not include the impact of recruit Cody Zeller yet.

Pac-12

Arizona
UCLA
Washington St.
Washington
USC
California
Colorado
Stanford
Oregon
Utah
Arizona St.
Oregon St.

Arizona and UCLA were very young, so both were expected to stay near the top of the league. But already several UCLA players have declared for the draft. I will update these standings in May once we know which of the UCLA players are returning. (At least one has signed with an agent and that is not reflected here.) Washington St. also brings back most of its rotation, but given all the recent marijuana citations, I would not be surprised to see some sort of shake-up in the off-season. Colorado and Utah join the Pac-12 and the expectations are that neither will dominate right away. 

Big 12

Texas
Kansas
Missouri
Kansas St.
Texas A&M
Baylor
Oklahoma St.
Iowa St.
Oklahoma
Texas Tech

Isn’t everyone looking forward to Texas and Kansas finally playing twice a year? Billy Gillispie is going to have a long-road back as Texas Tech loses a bunch of seniors from a team that was not very good. Missouri had a young team this year and was expected to compete for the top of the league next year. But I may have to lower Missouri’s expectation once I document Frank Haith’s impact on player development. 

ACC

North Carolina
Duke
Miami
Florida St.
Maryland
Clemson
Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech
NC State
Virginia
Boston College
Wake Forest

There were a ton of seniors in the Boston College rotation this year. They could be in for a hard fall unless the new players play well right away. Frank Haith stepped away from a nice young Miami team. Miami might be good next year, but only if the new coach is a good fit. We’ll see how that projection changes during the off-season.

SEC

Kentucky
Vanderbilt
Florida
Georgia
Alabama
Tennessee
Ole Miss
Arkansas
Mississippi St.
South Carolina
Auburn
LSU

There were no seniors in the Vanderbilt rotation this year, but will everyone come back?  Florida still returns a ton of talent, and picking them third here is basically saying that the SEC should be back next season.