The Knicks return to the postseason for the first time in 2004 and draw a historical rival in the Celtics, who have become one of the more enigmatic legitimate contenders of the 2011 NBA Playoffs.

The Vitals for the Boston Celtics 

•  Efficiency Differential: +6.7 (4th)

•  FIC Differential: +13.3 (3^rd)

• Offensive Four Factors: eFG%: .519 (7th), TOV%: .144 (27th), ORB%: .211 (30^th), FT/FGA: .235 (9^th)

•  Defensive Four Factors: eFG%: .470 (2^nd), TOV%: .148 (3^rd), DRB%: .746 (11^th), FT/FGA: .234 (18^th)

Offensive Areas of Strength: The Celtics like to score early in the shot clock in transition, or in the interior. Both are elements triggered from Rajon Rondo. When Rondo is right, he is easily a top-10 player in terms of overall impact on the game, but we aren’t sure what to expect from him due to injury and his reluctance to get to the line. Rondo racks up assists in a hurry and those assists come on easy opportunities. As Rondo goes, so do the Celtics.

In more of a traditional halfcourt set, the Celtics have several reliable options in the post. Kevin Garnett gets the majority of the opportunities, but Paul Pierce will exploit matchups here and Glen Davis gives the bench squad this option. And of course there’s Shaquille O’Neal, who still commands attention and double-teams in the post even if he is limited physically.

The pick and roll has become non-consequential to a large degree due to how much space Rondo is given by opposing defenses, but I like to see Pierce handle the ball in those situations, especially if he needs a boost to get going.

From the perimeter, Rondo, Pierce and Ray Allen are all capable of creating their own shot off the dribble in isolation, though Boston’s offense is typically far more efficient when they stick to their core strengths and use ISOs as a last resort.

Defensive Areas of Strength: The Celtics are probably the most well balanced defensive team in the NBA, particularly in the halfcourt. Their system is well-established and is based on excellent communication and help, with Garnett being the spiritual focal point.

Boston undoubtedly lost much of their interior defense strength with the trade of Kendrick Perkins, but the defensive versatility of Jeff Green will be of value against any team other than the Lakers and Magic, even though he is decidedly mediocre on that end of the floor.

Offensive Areas of Weakness: The presence of Allen makes it difficult to believe, but the Celtics were not a very good jump shooting team this season. Even though he must be contested and followed at all times, smart teams will shrink the space in the paint as much as possible and concede jumpers from nearly everyone else on the roster.

The struggles of Rondo’s jumper are as well-documented as anything there is in the game, but I also would prefer to see Garnett shooting 18-foot jumpers than working in the post. Seeing Pierce stationary on the perimeter is a better gamble than when he goes to work off the dribble around the elbow. 

Boston also can be forced into an inordinate number of turnovers, which clearly allows teams to exploit their biggest hole defensively.

Defensive Areas of Weakness: If there is a weakness in Boston’s defense, it is quite easily their vulnerability in transition. The Celtics like to hedge against this by not crashing the offensive glass, but there are still opportunities to beat them down the floor for easier looks rather than let them setup their stingy halfcourt defense.

The Vitals for the New York Knicks

• Efficiency Differential: +1.1 (15th)

• FIC Differential: +2.1 (15^th)

• Offensive Four Factors: eFG%: .514 (8^th), TOV%: .126 (6^th), ORB%: .244 (24^th), FT/FGA: .247 (4^th)

• Defensive Four Factors: eFG%: .510 (23^rd), TOV%: .138 (10^th), DRB% .718 (26^th), FT/FGA: .241 (23^rd)

Offensive Areas of Strength: If the NBA Playoffs are all about having superstar individual scorers, the Knicks now have two of them in Carmelo Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire. After a few initial growing pains, Anthony appears to have found his New York stride during a furious finish to the season.

Anthony is a high volume isolation scorer and while there are many debates about how frequently a team wants these lower percentage shots, this is unquestionably where we see teams rely upon in the playoffs and late in games. To have one of the best two or three ISO scorers in the entire NBA will give the Knicks an advantage here they really haven’t had since the Bernard King.

Stoudemire will also score off the dribble, though he is much better when he is moving into space on a cut or rolling after a screen.

Both Stoudemire and Anthony also will have effective spurts scoring out of the post.

New York’s supplemental offensive pieces are almost exclusively spot-up shooters and on cuts coming from the defense helping and rotating on the Big Two. The Knicks attempt a ton of three-pointers and rank seventh in percentage. Anthony has shot it extremely well from distance since coming to the Knicks and will probably regress to the mean during the playoffs. Landry Fields, Toney Douglas and Shawne Williams have all shot it well this season, while we can expect Chauncey Billups to hit his open looks in the playoffs after being inconsistent since the trade.

Defensive Areas of Strength: It isn’t much of a stretch to insist that the Knicks are the worst defensive team to qualify for the playoffs. Therefore, finding areas of strength are difficult.

The Knicks are much better defending against teams in transition than they are in the halfcourt, so that’s a relative strength.

They also defend the interior surprisingly well, at least in comparison to the ease given to shooters.

Ronny Turiaf and Toney Douglas play good individual defense when they are on the floor. Stoudemire has become a more engaged and effective shotblocker this season than he has in the past.

Fields will overachieve defensively as much as he is capable and is more effective once his man puts the ball on the floor.

Offensive Areas of Weakness: For a team that plays at a fast pace, the Knicks haven’t been very efficient in their transition scoring this season. The personnel of the Knicks is better suited for the halfcourt, yet Mike D’Antoni’s system isn’t built that way. Playoff basketball slows down, so the Knicks should reset the offense if something easy isn’t there as a default.

Billups hasn’t run the pick and roll as well as Raymond Felton had, or even as well as Douglas. That is a basic tenet of what New York attempts to accomplish and also creates some havoc for the defense beyond what the Big Two does naturally.

Closing out hard on the supplemental scorers is crucial because they will hit open shots, but forcing them to put the ball on the floor and make a basketball decision lowers their efficiency dramatically.

Defensive Areas of Weakness: Help defense and rotating on shooters is a humongous liability for the New York defense. Wide open shots against the Knicks are plentiful and it become merely a matter of making those.

Defending ISO scorers is a weakness, though it at least covers up their poor rotations and lack of a cohesive game plan on this end of the floor since the game devolves into a playground edition.

Matchup Advantages

PG: Rondo over Billups
SG: Allen over Fields
SF: Anthony over Pierce
PF: Even
C: Krstic/Shaq over
Bench: Celtics over Knicks 

The Rundown: The Celtics have the better depth of talent and a system with a long track record of success, even if they have serious concerns about the center position. Perkins wouldn't be a big factor in this series and if for some reason the Knicks upset Boston in this series, you would have to blame reasons other than the bold trade.

I don't foresee an upset here, however. Anthony and Stoudemire are too good and the Celtics don't have enough stamina to hold their foot to someone's throat for four consecutive games for this series to end in less than six games. Unlike upcoming seasons when expectations increase, the Knicks are playing with house money this year and winning a one, two or three playoff games against a title contender is a good first step heading into their first offseason where they can begin to build around Anthony and Stoudemire.

I haven't wavered from my Lakers/Celtics prediction for the Finals and this will be a good first test for Doc Rivers and company to get things going again.

Series Prediction: Celtics in Six Games