Defensive Four Factors

As I have done in previous years, I am going to average the four factors for various coaches in their tenures with their teams.  Today I focus on the defensive four factors for the Big East, SEC, and new-look Big 12.  Because new coaches have had less time to implement their system, I break out veterans and recent hires.  For this year’s hires, I list the coach’s performance with the previous team.  For comparison purposes, I also rank all 73 BCS coaches in each of the four factors.  (There will eventually be 74 BCS coaches, but Miami has yet to hire a new head coach.)

I find several interesting trends in the tables.  First, Luke Winn recently broke down the extreme level of defense that UConn played in the championship game.  It is tempting to look at the championship game numbers and say this was a fluke, a statistical anomaly.  And certainly, when Butler sets a record for the worst shooting percentage in the championship game, that is an outlier.

But the reason it is tempting to call that defensive performance a fluke is that UConn was not an elite defensive team last year.  The Huskies were 14^th nationally in adjusted defense, and that was boosted by two great performances in the Final Four.  But it is only a fluke if you look within the one-season view.  In the long-term, no BCS coach has seen his team force more missed shots than Jim Calhoun.  The best coach at getting his team to forced misses is not Mike Krzyzewki, not Bill Self, and not John Calpari.  It is the coach from Storrs, CT who has held his opponents to a 43% eFG% over the last 9 years.

A lot of people have criticized the UConn defense at various times.  They say the Huskies take too many risks to get blocked shots.  They say UConn is looking for the flashy play instead of the smart play.  But more often than not, that interior intimidation does force teams out of their comfort zones.  And in many ways, that may be why UConn’s struggles this year were mostly in Big East games.  Big East opponents have learned that the only way teams succeed against UConn is by not giving up on getting the ball inside.  Even if shots are swatted away early, teams that stay aggressive against UConn can still score around the basket.  And in Big East games, UConn’s opponents did score more often on twos and free throws.  But it takes a lot of discipline and effort to keep taking the ball inside when a 7 foot player or 6’9” shot blocker keeps swatting the ball back in your face.  And in the long haul, no one has been better at forcing those misses than Jim Calhoun.

Interestingly, Calhoun is not the most efficient defensive coach in the Big East.  Though I will post the overall numbers at a later date, I have ordered veteran coaches by their adjusted defensive efficiency in the tables that follow.  And what you see is that because Rick Pitino’s teams force more turnovers than Jim Calhoun’s teams, Pitino’s teams are actually better defensively overall.

Moving on to the Big 12, we see Texas Tech's new coach Billy Gillispie.  Billy Gillispie’s problem at Kentucky was not that he could not coach defense.  As a Bill Self disciple, he knows how to teach fantastic man-to-man principles.  Both Self and Gillispie rank in the top 5 in eFG% against.  Gillispie’s failures at Kentucky were more on the offensive side of the ball.

Also notable in the Big 12, no winning program fouls more than Frank Martin’s Kansas St. teams.  And Scott Drew’s teams have had a lot of defensive problems.  Drew has done an amazing job bringing elite talent to a program that was in shambles 8 years ago, but his teams have struggled at forcing misses and grabbing defensive rebounds.  That is not a good combination. 

Missouri’s decision to hire Mike Anderson has been roundly praised as the best hire of the off-season.  And whether the team wins or not, Anderson’s hire should result in entertaining basketball.  No BCS coach forces turnovers at a higher clip than the former Missouri coach.

But as seen in the Big East table, Providence hire Ed Cooley has also been pretty adept at forcing turnovers.  And that should be critical given that Providence is a guard-oriented team.  Cooley needs to teach Providence to play defense without a lot of size, and forcing more turnovers should be a critical first step.  In his first year at St. John’s, that was exactly how Steve Lavin got a veteran team to take a large step forward.

New Tennessee coach Cuonzo Martin has had defensive success by getting his teams to grab every possible defensive board.  I suspect there is something in the water in the MVC which makes defensive rebounding and “no fast-breaks” a religion, so I am not sure he will keep up that high defensive rebounding rate at Tennessee.  But rebounding has clearly been one of his team’s strengths.