Margin-of-victory is the greatest predictor of victory in sports. Today I use the tempo free player statistics to predict how the margin-of-victory numbers will change between the 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 seasons. Then I use that information to predict the 2013 conference standings.

PW = Predicted Conference Wins

PL = Predicted Conference Losses

P% = Percentage of Possessions Returning – (Possessions are a more powerful predictor of future offense than minutes, although the model includes returning minutes as well.)

FrP% = Percentage of Freshmen Possessions – (Teams that give major minutes to freshmen are significantly more likely to improve the following season.)

T10Fr = Consensus Top 10 Freshmen Recruits

N100 = New Recruits Ranked 11-100 on the Roster – (This includes transfers like Iowa St.’s Korie Lucious and redshirt freshmen like Duke’s Alex Murphy.)

Total = Total RSCI Top 100 high school recruits on the roster

NC = New Coach

RV = Relative Value = Offensive Rating of Returning Players, Incoming Transfers, and Players Returning from Injury (like UNC’s Leslie McDonald) divided by the Offensive Rating of Last Year’s Roster

MOV12 = Opponent Adjusted Margin-of-Victory in 2012 (see Pythag. rating on Kenpom.com)

Team

PW

PL

P%

FrP%

T10Fr

N100

Total

NC

RV

MOV12

Arizona

12

6

60%

29%

2

2

9

N

0.953

0.791

California

12

6

65%

10%

0

1

2

N

1.001

0.856

UCLA

12

6

63%

7%

1

2

8

N

0.996

0.812

Stanford

12

6

70%

22%

0

2

5

N

0.998

0.841

Washington

11

7

73%

36%

0

0

2

N

0.980

0.791

Colorado

10

8

57%

27%

0

2

2

N

0.988

0.736

Oregon St.

10

8

97%

12%

0

0

1

N

1.004

0.706

Oregon

8

10

45%

3%

0

1

2

N

0.984

0.797

Washington St.

7

11

72%

15%

0

1

1

N

0.977

0.704

USC

7

11

76%

19%

0

1

1

N

1.030

0.317

Arizona St.

4

14

56%

11%

0

0

1

N

0.997

0.342

Utah

3

15

78%

18%

0

0

1

N

1.032

0.155

-Sports’ writers are going to love writing about Arizona this off-season because of the team’s fantastic recruiting class. But there is a reason the tempo free projections don’t have Arizona as the runaway winner in the Pac-12. This off-season the Wildcats lose their three most efficient players in Kyle Fogg, Brendon Lavender, and Jesse Perry. The Relative Value Column shows that in terms of efficiency, Arizona is returning the absolute wrong players. Arizona is loaded with potential and they will be a trendy pick, but it will take significant player development for a Pac-12 title.

-Right now I’m assuming Tony Wroten returns. Terrene Ross is leaving early, but the return of Scott Suggs will help mitigate the loss. Suggs was injured and ultimately red-shirted this year.

-Oregon is going to have a hard time replacing the production of Garrett Sim and Devoe Joseph.

-I don’t quite buy it, but here is why the model sees some improvement for USC.The team was devastated with injuries and roster problems this year, and the most efficient players are back. If the offense improves from terrible to bad, with Kevin O’Neil’s solid defense the Trojans can win a few games.

-On the flip side, Arizona St. has been devastated by transfers this off-season and the prognosis is not nearly as good.

Team

PW

PL

P%

FrP%

T10Fr

N100

Total

NC

RV

MOV12

Kentucky

15

3

54%

24%

1

3

8

N

0.955

0.967

Alabama

13

5

84%

39%

0

0

5

N

0.992

0.854

Florida

13

5

63%

1%

0

2

8

N

1.004

0.916

Tennessee

11

7

82%

17%

0

0

5

N

1.012

0.767

Vanderbilt

10

8

37%

12%

0

0

4

N

1.014

0.907

Mississippi

10

8

74%

32%

0

0

4

N

1.015

0.703

Missouri

10

8

33%

0%

0

1

2

N

0.937

0.923

LSU

9

9

80%

32%

0

0

2

N

1.005

0.671

Texas A&M

8

10

61%

10%

0

2

5

N

1.024

0.636

Georgia

7

11

64%

33%

0

0

1

N

0.968

0.631

Arkansas

6

12

70%

27%

0

0

3

N

0.989

0.581

S. Carolina

5

13

81%

25%

0

0

4

Y

0.988

0.515

Auburn

5

13

76%

0%

0

1

2

N

0.999

0.519

Mississippi St.

4

14

30%

13%

0

0

1

Y

1.008

0.697

-These projections have Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist declaring for the draft, but no one else. Assuming more players leave, John Calipari will just fill the slots with high school players who have not committed yet.

-Alabama made a significant investment in young players this season. Assuming a typical sophomore leap, those players should make a lot fewer mistakes and Alabama’s offensive efficiency should improve.

-This assumes John Jenkins returns for Vanderbilt.

-Frank Haith is getting some credit for his player development this last year, but this projection is based on the idea that his class of transfers will play well. Keion Bell, Earnest Ross, and Jabari Brown (who will be eligible mid-semester) will be key.

-Personally I would pick Arkansas to jump up this season under Mike Anderson, but Arkansas had the third worst margin-of-victory numbers in the league last year and BJ Young declared for the draft. Anderson will turn the Razorbacks into winners again, but it might not happen overnight.

-Mississippi St. is losing almost all its offensive production this off-season. There is still some talent on this team, but new head coaches from the assistant ranks are more likely to experience growing pains in their first season. 

Team

PW

PL

P%

FrP%

T10Fr

N100

Total

NC

RV

MOV12

Kansas

14

4

46%

3%

0

2

6

N

1.022

0.950

Baylor

13

5

63%

18%

1

2

7

N

0.990

0.905

Kansas St.

12

6

86%

29%

0

0

0

Y

1.000

0.865

Texas

10

8

59%

59%

0

3

7

N

0.974

0.849

Iowa St.

10

8

44%

4%

0

2

3

N

1.032

0.857

Oklahoma St.

9

9

76%

50%

1

0

4

N

0.962

0.691

West Virginia

8

10

55%

36%

0

3

4

N

0.934

0.790

Oklahoma

7

11

86%

0%

0

0

3

N

1.000

0.649

Texas Tech

4

14

88%

45%

0

1

1

N

1.010

0.294

TCU

3

15

56%

12%

0

0

0

Y

0.968

0.512

-I assume Thomas Robinson leaves for the draft, but you have to account for coach effects when predicting the season. If your model (or expert opinion) picks Baylor ahead of Kansas, you are bucking history. Bill Self will bring Justin Westley along nicely next year in the post.

-Kansas St. brings almost everyone back and the model likes them. Personally, I think they may struggle without Frank Martin, but Bruce Weber did well the last time he inherited someone else’s players.

-J’Covan Brown’s decision to leave hurts Texas in these projections, but all the minutes the Longhorns gave to freshmen last year should pay-off. This will be a sophomore led team, but not an inexperienced one.

Click Here for Page 2 of the Projections