During many of Indiana games this season the announcers have mentioned how Christian Watford has to play well for the Hoosiers to win. Then the announcers point out how inconsistent Watford has been on the season. Based on my own viewing of the team, I sort of buy it. Watford isn’t always hot from three-point range, but Indiana is nearly unstoppable when Watford is knocking down outside shots.

Still, when I look at the numbers, it is hard to see why Watford is labeled as the inconsistent Hoosier. He has scored in double figures in every game since mid-December. And his game-by-game ORtg has only dipped below 100 twice on the season, against North Carolina and at Illinois.

If anyone deserves to be labeled as inconsistent, I would have to label Cody Zeller. Zeller seems to dominate the game for stretches and then completely disappear for 10 minutes at a time. Still, if Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller are the stars this season, Christian Watford is gaining a reputation as a player who steps up in big moments. After Michigan St. went up by four on Tuesday night, it looked like Michigan St. might be about to put the Hoosiers away. And then Watford’s driving bucket and one flipped the momentum. After Watford’s bucket, it was the Hoosiers that went on the run to seal the road victory. Counting his three against Kentucky last season, it may be fair to say that Watford rises to the occasion in the biggest moments.

Speaking of rising to the occasion, I thought I would look at which teams have played better this season against quality competition. The next table compares various teams Pythagorean Winning Percentage against Teams in the Pomeroy Top 100 vs Teams outside the Pomeroy Top 100. (For those of you unfamiliar with this process, I am replicating Ken Pomeroy’s formula that controls for the quality of opponent and venue. Pythagorean Winning Percentage lists the expected winning percentage against the average D1 team on a neutral floor.) The teams in this first table have risen to the occasion.

Indiana St. has wins against Miami (FL), Creighton, and Wichita St., but the Sycamores have not been dominant throughout their schedule. Similarly Xavier and Illinois have each had some puzzlingly strong wins given that their season-long performance has not been completely dominant. And don’t let Iowa’s poor record against the Top 100 deceive you. The Hawkeyes have been very competitive against the elite teams in the Big Ten. Iowa just hasn’t won those games.

Of course another way to look at this list is to say these teams have played down to the level of their competition. I am not surprised to see Texas A&M on this list. Texas A&M seem to do fine against good teams, but no one seems to play down to their level of competition quite like the Aggies. And Kansas is only on this list because the loss to TCU was absolutely unfathomable. 

On the flip side we have teams that have folded against quality competition this year. Ultimately, the NCAA tournament only includes quality teams, so the lack of success against quality competition is a huge red mark on these teams: 

St. Joseph’s was a preseason A-10 favorite, but they have stunk in their big games this year. Ohio made have been an NCAA tournament darling last year, and they may have a nice record in the MAC this season, but the Bobcats really haven’t performed well in their big games. Similarly, Denver has a gaudy record in the WAC, and their strong performance against low-level WAC teams might make them an attractive bracket pick. But the Pioneers haven’t done much of anything in their 8 games against quality competition this season.

Most disturbingly, Kentucky is front and center on this list. Kentucky has played 12 games against the Top 100. And in those games, Kentucky has played like the 81st best team in the country. Against low-level teams, Kentucky has played like the 4^th best team in the country. But all those blowout wins against South Carolina, Samford, and Lipscomb will not mean anything in the tournament. You don’t get to face low-level competition come tournament time. If Kentucky can even make the tournament, picking them to beat a quality team seems like a dubious proposition at this point. 

Finally, in the next table I re-rank the Top 100, counting only games against the Pomeroy Top 100. Again, win-loss records are not the whole story, so I am adjusting for opponent and venue as on kenpom.com. The teams listed above are the big movers, but even teams like Butler are higher here than they are in the Pomeroy Ratings or Sagarin Predictor. The Bulldogs have played better against quality competition.