My numeric projections will be available near the start of the season, but today I want to write a few words about each WCC team’s outlook.

Earlier Previews: ACC Preview, MWC Preview, SEC Preview

WCC Favorite

Gonzaga: Jeff Goodman publishes an incredibly valuable transfer list every spring. (I’m honestly awed by how he talks to so many coaches and collects so much information in such a short amount of time.) Some people have seen the increase in his count of players transferring out and used it to argue that we have a transfer epidemic in college basketball. I’ve always been skeptical. I prefer to think of Goodman’s list as the “departure” list, not the transfer list. Many of the players on Goodman’s list will never play D1 basketball again. And since the dawn of the scholarship limit for basketball, coaches have quietly been asking their least productive players to leave.

Luke Winn has tried to answer the question of whether transfers between D1 programs have ticked up by using the NCAA’s fact book on transfers, and by looking through the VerbalCommits.com database. He has concluded that the raw number of D1 transfers has increased slightly, but that the big change is that more players are transferring up to quality programs. And most experts agree that the number of “quality” transfers in D1 basketball is on the uptick. Coaches are now recruiting away good players from mid-majors and opposing squads in a way they never have before.

I recently ran some numbers on the RealGM.com database, and found even more evidence of the quality transfer trend. The Points Produced by D1 transfers, in their debut season with their new team, has basically doubled since 2009. (Points Produced is a measure that includes points produced through assists and offensive rebounds. It is the numerator of the ORtg formula.)

And the number of players to produce positive points for their new team has also been ticking up. While just over 200 players did this a few years ago, over 360 players debuted with new teams and produced positive points last year. Of course, if a player only produces a handful of points, that probably is not meaningful. But if you raise the cutoff to 100 or 300 points, the number of productive transfers debuting has also been increasing.

Maybe I’m just the final person to admit that Goodman was right. But this table convinces me that something has changed. Quality players are changing teams like never before.

Gonzaga head coach Mark Few is not behind the curve when it comes to transfers. Last summer Few added Kentucky transfer Kyle Wiltjer and this spring he added USC graduate transfer Byron Wesley. Wiltjer is not a perfect player. He is a relatively poor defender who lacks the strength and quickness to be an elite defender. But Wiltjer is a dynamic offensive player. He’s a former Top 20 recruit and efficient scorer. He’s a stretch-4 with an outstanding outside shot. And even if he wasn’t good enough to be a starter for Kentucky, Wiltjer would be good enough to start for over half the teams in the Top 25. Meanwhile, despite playing on one of the worst teams in the Pac-12 last year, Wesley somehow made huge personal strides. Wesley became one of the most efficient high volume shooters in the Pac-12. Gonzaga already had three super-efficient double-digit scorers in Kevin Pangos, Gary Bell, and Przemek Karnowski, and now they have five super-efficient double-digit scorers.

Gonzaga has one of the scariest starling lineups in the nation, but Gonzaga has depth too. Domantas Sabonis, son of the NBA legend, and Josh Perkins are elite recruits who will be super-subs. And Kyle Dranginis is a very efficient reserve guard. Vanderbilt transfer Eric McClellan, whose eligibility hinges on when he finishes three classes, is another high-scoring addition from the SEC. But McClellan’s low efficiency suggests he isn’t even one of Gonzaga’s eight best players.

When I shared my way-too-early Top 25 in April, I had Gonzaga in the Top 25. But after Wesley joined the team, a strong argument could be made that Gonzaga is a Top 10 squad.  Realistically, it depends on how good you think the defense will be next year. I see the defense slipping slightly because Wiltjer and Wesley were not great defensive players, but whether you put Gonzaga in the Top 10 or not, they are going to win a ton of games.

Hoping for the NCAA Tournament

BYU: The formula for BYU is very simple. Basketball teams only need five players on the floor at once, and when you have one of the best scorers in the nation, in Tyler Haws, your odds of winning are very good. Matt Carlino’s transfer hurts, but it helps that Kyle Collinsworth became a tremendous facilitator last season, and that Skyler Halford was an aggressive efficient scorer in the limited minutes he played. The team also adds Wake Forest transfer Chase Fischer and elite recruit TJ Haws, the younger brother of Tyler. Those four players should be able to replace Carlino’s production.

Eric Mika also left on an LDS mission, and UNLV transfer Jamal Aytes will try to help fill in for his size and athleticism. But the reality is that it doesn’t really matter who plays in the post for BYU. Players like Nate Austin and Josh Sharp aren’t stars. They barely ever touch the ball. But because they are only needed to put-back lay-ups, they are incredibly efficient. The story of BYU is really about how Tyler Haws impressive scoring makes everyone on BYU an efficient player.

Saint Mary’s: Brad Waldow is one of the best returning big men in the WCC. And Kerry Carter is a solid guard. But they needed help, and having mentioned the importance of transfers at the start of this piece, head coach Randy Bennett noticed the trend as well. Bennett added three key transfers in Stanford point-guard Aaron Bright, Minnesota guard Joe Coleman, and Washington forward Desmond Simmons.  Not only were these three players former starters in major conferences, they were very efficient at their former schools as well.

But even if the Gaels starting lineup is formidable, there are some questions about the team. First, the bench is unproven. USC transfer Garrett Jackson was inconsistent last year. Big man Dane Pineau showed some promise on the offensive glass, but didn’t really play enough to know how good he will be.

And while the three transfers all have skills, they all had flaws as well. Joe Coleman was a fabulous penetrator at Minnesota, but he struggled with his jump shot, and that one-dimensional play made him easy to scout. Meanwhile, Bright and Simmons were very passive offensive players at their former schools. When Waldow is on the bench, it is not clear who St. Mary’s can rely on if they need to get a bucket.

Hoping for the NIT

San Francisco: In May, PG Avry Holmes announced he was transferring to Clemson. It was a bit of a disaster for the Dons. While Matt Glover had shown some nice complimentary passing as an off-guard, it would be a struggle if Glover had to become the full-time PG. But last year Rex Walter’s team hit new heights at 13-5 in the conference, and recruits notice that kind of success.

Despite the late transfer news, Walters was able to secure a commitment from one of the better remaining PGs on the board, former Oregon St. commit Devin Watson in June. Watson is still a freshman, and he will make some mistakes. But as a three-star recruit, he should be able to hold his own in year one. Moreover, his recruitment shows that the program is on the rise. Because of the team’s recent success, even when USF had to recruit at the last minute, they didn’t have to settle.

San Francisco also welcomes three transfers from major conference schools. Derrell Robertson and Montray Clemons both used to play for DePaul. And while they put up fairly weak numbers two years ago for a bad DePaul team, they will have the advantage of playing next to one of the best post-players in the WCC in Kruize Pinkins. Their main role will simply be to grad rebounds and play physical defense. The team also adds Uche Ofoegbu, who struggled as a freshmen wing at SMU. But with one of the best wing players in the country in Mark Tollefsen on the squad, the team won’t need to rely on Ofoegbu until he is ready.

Realistically, it will probably take a little more roster stability for USF to become a true NCAA bubble team. But if Rex Walters keeps developing players at such a high rate, and if the success continues to improve the team’s recruiting, the sky is the limit.

Portland: Scouting a team like Portland can be very difficult. The Pilots bring in five freshmen, but they are all two star recruits, and in my model, players like that all receive essentially the same prediction. But if you want to learn more about the recruiting classes at some of these smaller schools, I highly recommend Kellon Hassenstab’s “2014 College Basketball Newcomers Guide”. This year Portland brings back all its key players except elite rebounding forward Ryan Nicholas. And the Newcomer’s Guide at least provides a few more details about the team’s two big men recruits Gabe Taylor and Philipp Hartwich. The guide points out that freshman Taylor played high school basketball for a coach connected to the team (suggesting he may have an edge for playing time.) The guide also notes that Taylor was a good outside shooter for his size. Finally, the guide points out that Hartwich is thin, but that based on his experience in Germany, he may be more experienced playing against older players. If you are an information junkie, you may want to give Hassenstab’s guide a look.

Regardless, the margin-of-victory numbers suggest Portland was a better team than their 7-11 conference record would indicate, and with 78% of the minutes back from last year, they are likely to move into the upper half of the league.

San Diego: These are the kind of seasons that make or break head coaches. Bill Grier took San Diego to the NCAA tournament in his first season, but now he is entering year eight, and he has not been able to duplicate that success. This year he has a veteran team. The rotation will likely include eight juniors and seniors and 86% of the rotation is back from last year.

Cal St. Northridge transfer Brandon Perry will provide a key boost at one of the forward spots. Johnny Dee and Christopher Anderson are star players, efficient and effective, the kind of players that a winning team can rely on. But this team still has the lowest average star rating (least potential evaluated based on high school talent) in the WCC. And it is very hard to win when your team has less athleticism than its opponents. The pressure is on Grier to win now, but he still doesn’t have the horses to really go head-to-head with the top of the league.

Building for the Future

Santa Clara: Santa Clara is a bit like BYU above. Because Jared Brownridge and Brandon Clark are so dominant, it should allow the complimentary Santa Clara players to improve their efficiency. Moreover, the team may benefit from the departure of senior Evan Roquemore. Roquemore was once a good player, but thanks to a preseason back injury, he had a horrific slump as a senior. Roquemore’s eFG%, assist rate, and turnover rate plummeted last year. Santa Clara would have missed the younger Roquemore, but they will not miss the inefficient senior he became last season.

Pepperdine: A lot of people love this team because of Stacy Davis and Jeremy Major. Lamond Murray Jr. also looks like a likely breakout candidate as a sophomore. He was efficient and aggressive as a freshman in limited minutes. But Pepperdine’s defense fell off a cliff last year, and now the WCC defensive-player-of-the-year, Brendan Lane, has graduated. Lane was the team’s best defensive rebounder and shot-blocker. It is hard to see how the defense will get better without its best player. And if the defense is worse or comparable to last year, that will make it very hard to win games.

Loyola Marymount: Mike Dunlap is returning to college basketball from the NBA, and he is returning to the school where he began his career as an assistant. He inherits a last place team that has one real asset, high volume scorer Evan Payne. If everyone on the roster lives up to their potential, Dunlap might be able to craft a competitive lineup. But it is a long-shot. The entire roster is filled with risky players that might produce very little this season.

Chase Flint and Marin Mornar were efficient, but they never shot last year. They don’t project as anything other than role players. Godwin Okonji is the highest ranked high school prospect on the team, but he was injured in a preseason car accident last year, and there are no guarantees he will come back strong after sitting out a year. Patson Siame was supposed to be a quality recruit last year, but he was a partial qualifier and the model wonders how he will play after sitting out for a year. Ayodeji Egbeyemi was injured last year and is another risky lineup option. JUCOs David Humphries and Matt Hayes seem like key pickups, but JUCO players are almost always lottery tickets, and Humphries and Hayes are not ranked high enough by most JUCO services to expect them to dominate. Worse yet, none of the freshmen have been ranked above two stars. If the JUCOs and the players coming off injuries play to their capacity, new head coach Mike Dunlap might be able to work some magic. But with that kind of roster, odds are strong LMU will spend another year at the bottom of the conference.

Pacific: Pacific returns only 16% of its minutes from last season. With that much roster turnover, the only way to plausibly have a chance to be competitive is to go the JUCO route. And the Tigers add four JUCO prospects in Dulani Robinson, Sami Elarky, Eric Thompson, and Alec Kobre. If all those players click, Pacific may be competitive in the WCC. If not, this will be a long season.