Before the season, I went through RealGM’s excellent pick protection page and laid out the potential first round pick protection issues that could rear their head this season. The first half of the NBA season has changed some of these dynamics while also producing a few other trades involving 2015 pick protection so it made sense to do an update before the trade deadline.

Protected Picks:

Philadelphia- Retain their first rounder if 1-14 (otherwise it goes to Boston): Pretty sure we know the Sixers are keeping this one and instead sending two second round selections to the Celtics.

Minnesota- Retain their first rounder if 1-12 (otherwise it goes to Boston): While the Wolves would not need to make the playoffs to send the pick to Boston, finishing with one of the two best records of a non-playoff team could actually be pretty close in the stacked Western Conference. Even with their recent success, this is prohibitively unlikely.

Memphis- Retain their first rounder if 1-5 or 15-30 (otherwise it goes to Denver via Cleveland): With an 11-game lead on the nine seed in the Western Conference, the dual-sided protection on this pick means we are likely to see this continue to next season and probably to 2016-17 when it moves to 1-5 protection only.

Dallas- Retain their first rounder if 1-3 or 15-30 (otherwise it goes to Boston): Like the Memphis selection above, the dual-sided protection actually helps the team holding the rights assuming they would rather have a better pick later than an inferior one now. That can be an open question but it would take some doing for Dallas to fall out even though the West has so many great teams this season. Interestingly, Boston and Dallas negotiated for the playoff protection for this pick to only last this year so the Celtics will get the choice next season unless the Mavs end up with a top-seven choice in 2016.

Cleveland- Do not swap their pick with Chicago if 1-14 (otherwise Chicago can choose to swap): In order for this pick swap to happen, the Bulls must finish with a better record than the Cavs and both teams must make the playoffs. Given those restrictions it proves hard to argue that the protection would be a bigger motivator than playoff success. That said, it would be a nice sweetener to keep the picks if the wheels fell off for the Cavs, but those odds drop with each game they play at the moment.

Houston – Retain their first rounder if 1-14 (otherwise it goes to the Lakers): Unlike the earlier selections, the Rockets have a more traditional setup where they keep the pick if they miss the playoffs and send it along if they make the post-season. At this point, Houston looks pretty firmly in the playoffs so the Lakers can expect to get a late first. They sure need it.

Sacramento – Retain their first rounder if 1-10 (otherwise it goes to Chicago): At one point this season it looked like the Kings could make this situation substantially more interesting but they have flailed without DeMarcus Cousins for stretches and since firing Mike Malone. This pick still has two more seasons of top-ten protection before reverting to a single second rounder in 2017.

Oklahoma City- Retain their first rounder if 1-18 (otherwise it goes to Denver via Cleveland): The 1-18 nuance of this pick makes it incredibly interesting because it could be conceptually possible for the Thunder to make the playoffs and still retain the pick. Cleveland’s run has changed this game because now OKC would have to jump one or more of Atlanta, Cleveland, Chicago, Toronto and Washington and make the playoffs to lose the pick. While my instinct was that the bottom of the West would outpace the fifth team in the East, OKC has a reasonable chance now of getting their best-case scenario under these circumstances.

New Orleans- Retain their first rounder if 1-3 or 20-30 (otherwise it goes to Houston): Unfortunately for the Pelicans, the narrow bottom protection and tight top protection means they are incredibly likely to send this pick to Houston to complete the Omer Asik trade. That has the benefit of removing any reason to tank but adds some sting as it appears New Orleans will be sending yet another lottery pick away.

Miami – Retain their first rounder if 1-10 (otherwise it goes to Philadelphia): If we only look forward, Miami’s pick protection may yield the most compelling scenarios because the die has not been cast for them. Right now the Heat sit just three losses over the 10th pick but are still in the East playoff hunt. Teams like Detroit and Utah could elect to make runs in the second half to make this easier but a team with Miami’s talent that appears unlikely to outright tank may be giving away something nice.

LA Lakers – Retain their first rounder if 1-5 (otherwise it goes to Phoenix): It may feel like a death march now for those who do not love Swaggy P as much as I do but the Lakers will still have a stressful lottery day because unlike Miami’s top ten protection, there are many ways for a team to fall out of the top five without one of the two worst records. The Lakers will likely keep the pick for at least one more year (some protection runs until 2018) but it could be quite the grind until May 19^th. 

Unprotected Pick Bonus:

Atlanta- Can swap their pick with Brooklyn: Considering how far apart these teams are, this swap only serves to remove the tanking incentive from the Nets. That can matter in a draft that could feature more than a few teams racing to the bottom as the season closes.

Boston- Have the Clippers’ pick unprotected: Astonishingly, the Celtics possess the only free and clear traded first rounder in the 2015 NBA Draft (at this point) through the Doc Rivers transaction. A nice asset that would become substantial if the Clippers had a surprising collapse in the second half of the season.