For all of the issues discussed from tanking, the more specific issue that hurts the NBA stems from the way teams will approach parts of their seasons when they have traded picks that can be protected. These very strong and sometimes narrow incentives can have a greater impact on competitive balance, especially towards the end of a season once the final picture becomes more clear.

As an example, I covered the Golden State Warriors in 11-12 when they only retained their pick if it fell in the top-7. Once their unreasonable playoff dream died, the team did what they could to keep their selection including shelving their top players (like now-MVP Stephen Curry) ahead of time.

I wanted to go through RealGM’s excellent pick protection page and detail the potential first round pick protection issues that could rear their head this season, ranked in order of overall impact (likelihood and significance, basically). While pick swaps can change the way teams play since it eliminates the benefit of excessive losing, I chose not to include them on the primary list since playing with an indifference to losing works very differently than the incentives for teams like the 2011-12 Warriors.

LA Lakers – Retain their first rounder if 1-3 (otherwise it goes to Philadelphia): Another offseason starts with this being the most important pick protection in the league. Considering the Lakers finished last season with the fourth-worst record, it may be unlikely at first that they will retain this choice but the strong incentive to keep it could alter their behavior if the season goes more poorly than desired.

Miami – Retain their first rounder if 1-10 (otherwise it goes to Philadelphia): While Miami has high hopes for the 2015-16 season, this protection could loom large if the Heat end up on the playoff fringe again. With some strong teams in the West inevitably missing the playoffs, the No. 9 seed in the East could end up picking in this range.

Sacramento- Retain their first rounder if 1-10 (otherwise it goes to Chicago): It feels like this pick has been around for a while and it likely will continue for at least one more year. With top-10 protection, the Kings could be right in range to make sure they retain their choice after even a modest improvement from their 2014-15 campaign.

Dallas – Retain their first rounder if 1-7 (otherwise it goes to the Celtics): Dallas may not want to think about the worst-case scenario but they could be facing a situation somewhat similar to Miami this past year where the sting of missing out on the playoffs gets compounded by losing a lottery pick. The Heat retained their selection by virtue of stronger protection than the Mavericks have- it could be hard for a moderately healthy Dallas team to make it down to No. 7.

Minnesota- Retain their first rounder if 1-12 (otherwise it goes to the Celtics): This will be the final year of this obligation, as it converts to two second round picks (2016 and 2017) if Minnesota’s selection falls in the top twelve. Considering their wealth of young talent and a stacked Western Conference, it looks likely the Timberwolves would retain the pick anyway but it could provide a strong, specific incentive in certain circumstances.

Memphis – Retain their first rounder if 1-5 or 15-30 (otherwise it goes to Denver): This kind of double-sided protection would make missing the playoffs even more painful for the Grizzlies. If Memphis retains their 2016 first rounder, the protection shifts to a more traditional 1-5 single-sided for 2017 and 2018 before becoming unprotected in 2019.

Cleveland- Retain their first rounder if 1-10 (otherwise it goes to Phoenix): It appears awfully unlikely this protection will matter but it could serve as a silver lining in some worst-case scenarios.

Portland – Retain their first rounder if 1-14 (otherwise it goes to Denver): I am sure the Blazers would rather keep the pick and make the playoffs but a potential LaMarcus Aldridge departure makes this a much more likely proposition. If Portland retains their first this year, it has one more season of 1-14 protection before converting to two second round choices.

Oklahoma City – Retain their first rounder if 1-15 (otherwise it goes to Philadelphia): While this selection has unusual protection (1-15 rather than 1-14, which represents the lottery vs. the playoffs), a stacked West means that the No. 15 pick will go to an Eastern Conference team. Like with Portland, this becomes a silver lining rather than something that actually affects how the Thunder approach this season.

This season’s swaps and unprotected picks:

Brooklyn – Their first round selection will go to Boston as a part of the Garnett/Pierce trade made in 2013.

New York – Denver has the right to swap picks with the Knicks and whatever selection New York ends up with will go to Toronto as a part of the Andrea Bargnani trade.