RealGM Analysis
Teams that don’t make many offseason moves slip below the radar in a world where the rumor mill always churns and the news cycle never stops. It’s what have you done for me lately and how many big names have you added and the publicity goes to the flashiest acquisitions. NBA teams are either getting better or getting worse so the assumption is that standing still means falling behind.
There are advantages to continuity, though, especially early in the season. Teams where everyone has a defined role have an advantage over those integrating new pieces into the rotation or adjusting to a new coach or trying to figure out a new style of play. When a team with an established identity goes up against one still figuring out who they are, it’s not a fair fight. When that team is coming off one of the greatest seasons in NBA history, it’s going to be a serious problem for the rest of the league.
The Golden State Warriors went 67-15 in the regular season with a +10.1 point differential. They went 16-5 in the postseason and they weren’t seriously challenged past Game 4 in any series. They brought back their entire starting line-up and their five top reserves. The only significant guy they lost (David Lee) was benched before the start of the season. In retrospect, it’s crazy they weren’t considered the odds on favorite to win it all again.
The New Orleans Pelicans and the Houston Rockets didn’t know what hit them. Both seem to be in crisis but a large part of that is the way they were systematically undressed by the defending champs. The Warriors won their home opener against the Pelicans by 16, a road game in Houston by 30 and the second night of a back-to-back in New Orleans by 14. They are playing like a team with something to prove or one where results naturally come from a process that generates a lot of open shots. The scary part is maybe it’s both.
Everything starts with Stephen Curry, who has started the season on an unbelievable hot streak. No one should be able to shoot like Curry and no one really has in the history of the game. He can stroke 3’s off the dribble from 30+ feet and he has the green light to shoot anywhere on the floor at any point in the shot clock. The other team literally has to pick him up at halfcourt, which dramatically impacts the geometry of the floor and stresses defenses in way they were never designed to.
Where he takes things to another level is combining a lightning-quick release and unlimited range with lethal ball-handling and the vision to see the entire floor. The numbers so far don’t even make sense - 39.3 points, 5.7 rebounds and 7.7 assists a game on 58.8% shooting and 48.8% from 3. He can stretch the defense past the breaking point, dribble through traffic and make every pass in the book. There’s never been a player quite like him and the league is still figuring out how to guard him.
One solution is to throw as much length on him as possible. The problem is there’s no way to cross-switch against their roster. They start three 6’6+ wings who can shoot 3’s, put the ball on the floor and create shots for everyone else. They are the prototype 4-out basketball team who went from good to great when they switched Lee for Draymond Green. They only play only traditional big man at a time, whether it’s Bogut, Ezeli or Marreese Speights, and those guys play in maximum space around the rim.
Golden State gets everyone on an island and they ruthlessly attack the weakest link in the chain. That’s how a beta version that won 47 games knocked off a 57-win Denver Nuggets team in 2013. There was nowhere to hide Ty Lawson - he didn’t have the size to defend Steph or Klay Thompson or Harrison Barnes. They shot over him like he was a chair and they operated in enough space that doubling created open shots all over the court. Everyone has to defend against Golden State and not just 1-on-1. They have to understand the scheme and know the rotations like the back of their hand because the Warriors are constantly in motion and they move the ball as well as any team in the league.
There’s no right answer for Curry in a ball-screen. Going under is off the table. Fighting over still leaves too much room to shoot. Switch and he dribbles into an open 3. Double and he swings the ball to the open man. Something is always open. Golden State has a nearly indefensible player and they surround him with a team almost perfectly designed to maximize his strengths and minimize his weaknesses.
You want to get into Curry on the other end of the floor and wear him out on defense as much as possible. The problem is he can always be be hidden if necessary, although he has improved on that side of the ball. Thompson, Barnes and Green are long, athletic and tough defenders who can match-up with multiple positions. They can all switch pick-and-rolls and they play in front of a rim protector, whether it’s Bogut or Ezeli, who can clear the glass and erase any mistakes.
No team in the NBA does a better job of going defense to offense than Golden State, who were No. 1 in the league last season in defensive rating and pace. They play four perimeter players at a time and they can all start the break, freeing up the other three to run the lanes and spot up for open 3’s in transition, the true backbreaking plays in the modern NBA. They don’t need to run a lot of plays - they can read and react and flow into the offense.
It doesn’t get any easier when they bring guys off the bench. Their top-3 perimeter reserves are the reigning Finals MVP (Andre Iguodala), a 6’7 point forward who can defend four positions (Shaun Livingston) and a former Sixth Man of the Year (Leandro Barbosa). Iguodala and Livingston handle the ball-handling, the play-making and the defending while Barbosa is free to hunt shots. The Warriors are constantly putting pressure on the other team for 48 minutes and when the dam breaks it breaks fast.
The coaching staff has so many options with their line-ups. They have the reigning MVP and five wings between 6’6’-6’8 who are interchangeable on both sides of the ball. Green, Iguodala, Barnes, Thompson and Livingston can all defend at least 3 positions and they can all have offense run through them. The best bet to defend them is to force the supporting cast to shoot but Green (career 32.6% from 3), Iguodala (career 33.3%) and Barnes (career 36.9%) can all beat you if left open.
At a certain point when a team has been together long enough, things start to grow stale. Guys get older, they start wanting bigger roles and complacency kicks in. The league changes and starts to figure them out and bringing in fresh faces becomes essential. That point will come in Golden State but it hasn’t yet. The only guys on the wrong side of 30 are Iguodala (32), Bogut (31) and Livingston (30) and all three know exactly who they are at this point in their careers. The young guys are still improving and the only ones who haven’t been paid yet are Barnes and Ezeli. For now, the Warriors are in the sweet spot.
Everyone knows their role and what is being asked of them on both sides of the ball. They can play free without looking over their shoulders or wondering what the guy next to them is going to do. They are greater than the sum of their parts and their parts are pretty good. When Steve Kerr said they would be better in Year 2 of his system, it seemed impossible. Three games into the new season, it’s starting to look like a threat.
