Last season, when the Hawks won 60 games and were the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, much of their success was due to the hot shooting of Kyle Korver. He made an astounding 49.2% of his threes and this contributed greatly to the Hawks ranking fourth in Net Rating at +5.6 (offensive rating of 106.2 and defensive rating of 100.7).

However, the story changed once the playoffs began. While it is surprising to note that Korver shot a paltry (by his standards) 35.5% from three in the postseason, the fact that, as a result, the Hawks suffered is not. The Hawks went from being a powerhouse to being a neither here nor there collection of players – arguably, all because of Korver’s struggles. His shooting was crucial in their regular season success and he could not translate that to the postseason – to the Hawks’ detriment. It should be pointed out that the Hawks’ defense stayed pretty consistent from regular season to playoffs, and the drop-off came offensively – in line with Korver’s shooting slump. It is evident that the Hawks struggles in the 2015 playoffs are overstated and were the result of both injuries (Korver missed two games in the Conference Finals) and an unfortunate cold streak from Korver that hindered the team’s offensive output.

Unfortunately, Korver’s cold shooting in last season’s playoffs has continued into the 2015-16 season, as he has shot 39% from three. While this may be a great percentage for the average NBA shooter, the last time Korver shot a lower percentage from three was eight seasons ago! For a 43% career 3-point shooter, it is undeniable that Korver has been struggling.  Consequently, the Hawks’ have been struggling, as well, compared to last season (offensive rating: 102.7, defensive rating: 98.6 = net rating + 4.1). 

While it would be unfair to pin the Hawks success and failure entirely on Korver, there is nonetheless a very interesting correlation between his 3-point shooting accuracy and the overall success of the Hawks as a team. Korver has picked up his shooting in February and March (42% in February and 53% in March from three). More generally, before the All-star break his 3-point percentage was 38.7% (below his career average) and post-all-star break it has been 44.1% (above his career average, i.e. back to normal).

For the Hawks, from the beginning of the season until end of January (when Korver was in more of a cold streak), their net rating was only 2.2. However, from February onwards, when Korver has returned to shooting the ball similarly to last regular season, the Hawks’ net rating is +9.3 (second only to the Spurs). While the team’s offensive rating has remained relatively consistent throughout the year (102.5 thru January, 103.0 Feb-March), it is the team’s defense that has significantly improved (100.4 thru January – 6^th in the league; 93.7 from Feb-March – 1^st in the league). Perhaps Korver’s improved shooting has contributed to this improvement by enabling the defense to set up more effectively (fewer misses on long jumpers, leading to better ability to initiate their defensive schemes).

While the Hawks have evolved over the past two months into the NBA’s best defensive team, not to mention benefitting from the type of shooting Korver provided in their incredible offensive season of 2014-15, the Cavaliers (widely considered to be a shoo-in for the Finals) have trended in the opposite direction. While their net rating has improved from +5.8 thru January to +6.4 in February and March, their defensive rating has fallen from 100.8 to 103.5.

The Hawks’ offense is getting back on track with Korver’s shooting, and the team has greatly improved on defense compared to last season – and are now the best defensive team in the league, something that will greatly benefit the Hawks come playoff-time. While the Hawks did lose DeMarre Carroll to free agency, Kent Bazemore has fit in beautifully with this team. He is still capable of hitting the 3 (36% versus 39% from Carroll last season). And his defensive tenacity is certainly contributing to the team’s newfound defensive identity.

Ultimately, the Hawks should not be counted out as championship contenders this season. While the Cavs may have a better offense, the Hawks have the better defense. If Korver is hitting his threes, as he has been recently and the domino effect that would provide for the rest of their offense, they could end up in The Finals.