Depending on your point of view, the Milwaukee Bucks have either underachieved this season or they overachieved last season. Either way, the Bucks aren’t where many people thought they would when the 15-16 season began. The single biggest difference for Milwaukee has been the marked decline of their defense. A year ago the Bucks were fourth in the league in Defensive Rating. This season they were 23rd in Defensive Rating.

What seems to have caused the defense to drop off so much is swapping the combination of Zaza Pachulia, Larry Sanders and Jared Dudley, who had all defended well last season, for Greg Monroe, Miles Plumlee and Jabari Parker, who have all defended poorly this year. In addition, likely due to having lesser defenders around them, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton had worse defensive seasons this year. Last season, the perimeter defenders for the Bucks would create havoc outside, while the backline covered for them and finished possessions. 

Most of the blame has been placed on Greg Monroe for the defensive decline, but it really has been a team effort. Monroe’s lack of interior defense was largely to be expected, but the return on the offensive end hasn’t really been there. Monroe has been slightly more efficient than previous years, but the Bucks have played at a slower pace which largely offsets that efficiency. Essentially, what Milwaukee hoped to gain in Monroe offensively has been submarined by what they have lost defensively as a team. 

In addition to the defensive struggles, the Bucks had several injuries, especially in the backcourt. Michael Carter-Williams, O.J. Mayo and Jerryd Bayless, who were all projected to be in the rotation, have missed a significant amount of time. John Henson and Miles Plumlee, the main backup big men, both missed periods of time as well. Having to mix and match all year long has contributed to the inconsistency the team has experienced on both ends of the court.

One benefit of the guards missing so much time is that Milwaukee has discovered that Giannis Antetokounmpo can be utilized as a weapon at point guard. Late in the year, after force feeding minutes at PG to several players, the Bucks started putting the ball in the hands of Antetokounmpo and letting him go to work. The results have been mixed, with Antetokounmpo having great individual numbers and several triple-doubles, but the team has continued to fall short on the scoreboard more often than not. If nothing else, the Bucks should now have the confidence that they can give the ball to Antetokounmpo and let him create when the situation calls for it, even if it isn’t a full time move for them to play him at PG. 

Discovering Antetokounmpo’s ability to lead the offense has changed the outlook on one of Milwaukee’s top priorities in some respects. Prior to that discovery, getting a point guard who can run the show was seen as at least as big a concern as getting a defensive minded center. Now, the Bucks can place finding a point guard lower on their list or they can look at different styles of PGs. Instead of traditional lead guards like Mike Conley Jr., Rajon Rondo or Ty Lawson, the Bucks can look at players like Matthew Dellavedova, Jordan Clarkson or Langston Galloway. The latter three players are RFAs, so it would take crafting an offer that their current teams wouldn’t want to match in order to pull them over. Signing Dellavedova would have the added benefit of weakening a division rival as well. 

If the Bucks want to make finding a center that can focus on defense and rebounding, affordable targets could include Bismack Biyombo, Roy Hibbert, Ian Mahinmi, Timofey Mozgov or Joakim Noah. There were also rumors of interest in Dwight Howard at the Trade Deadline as well, but he would be a far more expensive option. 

Should the Bucks acquire a new player at center, they will need to decide what to do with Monroe. Milwaukee would certainly have options to explore both externally and internally. First, they could try and find a new home for Monroe through trade. New Orleans, Monroe’s hometown team, and New York, who showed interest last summer, have both been mentioned as possible trade partners. Both teams have PFs, in Anthony Davis and Kristaps Porzingis, who can stretch the floor and block shots. That type of player is seen as an obvious frontcourt pairing for Monroe, who lacks those abilities. 

If the Bucks wanted to keep Monroe, they can shift him to PF and go really big, with a new player at C, Monroe at PF, Parker at SF, Middleton at SG and Antetokounmpo at PG. A more realistic option would be for Monroe to slide to the bench. He came off the bench several times this year and played well in those games. Unfortunately, Monroe makes an awful lot of money to be sixth man and that option may not be palatable long-term. Making a decision related to what has been somewhat of a bust of a free agent signing isn’t what Milwaukee hoped for when they signed Monroe last offseason.

An advantage Milwaukee has cap-wise is having three core members of their team on team friendly contracts. Antetokounmpo has a year left on his Rookie Scale deal and is extension eligible this offseason and Parker still has two years left on his own Rookie Scale contract. In addition, Khris Middleton is on one of, if not the best, contracts in the league in terms of cost vs. production. Middleton’s deal spikes to its highest point of $15.2 million next season, but then declines to $14.1 million and then $13 million after that. Even at the $15.2 million mark, Middleton is a steal as a 6’8’’ SG who provides terrific offense and solid defense. His improvement as a passer has taken his game from someone who can get his own points to someone who can create for his teammates and fit in any offensive system. 

The Bucks should have enough cap space to add at least one major impact piece, or two to three solid role players. The Bucks draft pick is slotted at 10th. 

Milwaukee is a young team, with rotation pieces locked up, that was perhaps a year early in their development timeline. With smart offseason moves to fill their holes, combined with internal improvement of their core, the Bucks should be able to rebound back into postseason contention as soon as next year. A year later follows with another cap jump and the year after that brings a new arena. 

Offseason Details 

Guaranteed Contracts (8): Giannis Antetokounmpo, Michael Carter-Williams, Tyler Ennis, John Henson, Khris Middleton, Greg Monroe, Jabari Parker, Rashad Vaughn

Partial/Non-Guaranteed Contracts (2): Damien Inglis, Johnny O’Bryant

Potential Free Agents (5): Jerryd Bayless (UFA), O.J. Mayo (UFA), Steve Novak (UFA), Miles Plumlee (RFA), Greivis Vasquez (UFA)

“Dead” Money on Cap (1): $1,865,547 (Larry Sanders)

First Round Draft Picks (as of 4/11/16): # 10

Maximum Cap Space: $28,248,938

Projected Cap Space: $21,048,225