While the end of the regular season resolved many of the league’s most interesting pick protection questions, Tuesday’s draft lottery still holds major importance both in the immediate and long-term. Here are a few significant traded pick scenarios the lottery will resolve: 

Los Angeles Lakers (second-best lottery odds): While the Lakers’ pick having top-three protection has garnered plenty of attention over the last few years (they have a 55.8% chance of retaining their pick, 44.2% chance of losing it), the 2016 lottery has larger effects than that. As part of the 2012 Dwight Howard trade, the Lakers have a commitment to trade a future pick to Orlando that has been pushed back due to the one originally sent to Phoenix in the Steve Nash trade still not conveying. If the Lakers retain their pick this year and next year, they send two second round choices to the Magic instead of a future first. If the Lakers send their pick in 2016 or 2017, they will send a first round choice to Orlando eventually.

Additionally, some would argue that Philadelphia would be better off getting the Lakers’ selection in a stronger draft but the future holds a great deal of variance for the Lakers. They could hit on some prominent free agents and be on the periphery of the playoff chase at the absolute minimum and it would be hard to expect them to be struggling in 2017-18 when the choice is unprotected. The Sixers have a somewhat remarkably high 13.9% chance at their dream scenario: the No. 1 and No. 4 selections in this draft- about one in seven. 

Sacramento Kings (eighth-best lottery odds): The trade Sacramento made to clear cap space last summer included pick swaps with the Sixers in both 2016 and 2017. While Philadelphia has the best lottery odds, the Kings have a 6.8% chance of picking in the top three which would be somewhat embarrassing for Sacramento considering they made the trade to pick up pieces to help them in the immediate. Interestingly, that would actually be great for them because moving up assures them a top-four pick even with the swap since the team with the worst record (Philadelphia) can finish no worse than fourth. There is about a 5% chance a Kings/Sixers swap occurs.

Due to winning the coin toss of the teams tied at 33-49, the Kings would need an incredible series of events to send their pick to Chicago by falling to 11th. Since only three teams can move up in the lottery, it would require all three of those teams coming from the 9-14 slots which is technically possible but more than unlikely- less than 0.1%. That also means it is prohibitively likely Sacramento will send their 2019 pick to Philadelphia unprotected.

The Knicks/Nuggets/Raptors (seventh and ninth-best odds): New York finished the season with the seventh-worst record in the NBA but will not get the benefit of another lottery pick. Instead, Denver gets the better of their choice and the Nuggets’ own selection which is in the “tie” that also includes the Kings and Bucks for the 8-10 slots. Summing up the two gives Denver about a 22% chance of a top-three pick. Toronto gets the worse of the two picks to complete the Andrea Bargnani trade.

Washington Wizards (thirteenth-best odds): After what must have been a substantial amount of negotiation, Washington and Phoenix eventually settled on top-nine protection for the pick that serves as compensation for enigmatic power forward Markieff Morris. Since the Wizards have the thirteenth-best lottery odds, they must jump into the top three in order to keep their first round selection. That has only a 2.2% chance of happening but would be a massive development for the franchise.