The Houston Rockets reached the playoffs on the last day of the season after a disappointing, dysfunctional year that saw Kevin McHale lose his job in November and foreshadowed an anticipated partial breakup of the roster. After a run to the Western Conference Finals in 2015, McHale seemed to lose the team almost immediately. At the very least, the Rockets lost interest on the defensive end of the court. After finishing in the top third of the league the prior year, Houston dropped back to their previous norms and played terrible defense all season long. It showed in the Win/Loss column, with a 15 game drop off.

James Harden once again led the way with his terrific all-around offensive game. Harden averaged 29 PPG, 7.5 APG, and 6.1 RPG, while retaining one of the highest usage rates in the entire league. Unfortunately, after a MVP caliber season where he was active and engaged defensively, his effort on that end once again dropped off. The Rockets took the cue from their leader and the entire team’s effort lacked all season. For all his talent, Houston needs Harden to lead the way on both ends for the team to get to where they ultimately hope to be. 

Houston’s second star, Dwight Howard, had one of his more efficient offensive seasons. He shot a career high 62% despite rarely being featured as Harden carried a heavier load than previous years. Howard continued to be a dominant rebounder and his individual defense was fine, as the foundation crumbled around him.

The other players on the roster performed more or less in line with their career averages. Trevor Ariza offered his typical 3-and-D game, Patrick Beverley was his regular pesky self, and Corey Brewer continued to be an inefficient ball of energy on both ends. Ty Lawson didn’t work out as either a starter or reserve, but the trade was a logical gamble. It cost Houston a first round pick, but for a team that was looking to move past the Warriors and Spurs, they had to take that chance buying low on Lawson. 

Clint Capela was one player who took a step forward in his development. He was an efficient offensive and defensive player and made the most of minutes. He is now seen as the heir apparent at the center position, possibly even as soon as this coming season.

Unfortunately, Capela’s development was offset by the lack of growth in Terrence Jones and injuries suffered by Donatas Motiejunas. Jones struggled throughout the year and seemed to lose confidence, eventually resulting in him being removed from the rotation. Motiejunas missed the majority of the first half of the year. He returned and played well down the stretch next to Howard. Both players are likely get their Qualifying Offer as they still have value and Houston will try to negotiate smart extensions with each of them.

Getting development from Sam Dekker, K.J. McDaniels or Montrezl Harrell would be big for Houston to get some cheaper production off their bench. Dekker was out almost the entire season, so he'll essentially be a rookie in 16-17. McDaniels and Harrell were up and down and in and out of the rotation all year long. Having conveyed their pick to Denver to close out the Lawson trade, the Rockets need one of their young players to step up.

The lack of progress from Jones and Motiejunas, and lack of consistency from Josh Smith, caused the Rockets to bring Michael Beasley back to the NBA after his season in China completed. Beasley played well offensively and gave the Rockets some scoring off the bench. He is likely to return next season, as his salary is small and his contract doesn’t guarantee until after the first wave of free agency is over, giving the Rockets time to make a decision.

Other decision points are whether or not the Rockets want to keep Andrew Goudelock, and keep FA rights on Josh Smith and Jason Terry. Houston will likely keep Goudelock given his small salary and retaining rights on Smith and Terry won’t be harmful either. None of those players are irreplaceable, so the Rockets won’t hesitate to move on if necessary.

All of this brings Houston to the two biggest decisions of their offseason: their next head coach and the future of Dwight Howard.

After a protracted search, the Rockets finally hired D'Antoni. The Rockets are intrigued by how D'Antoni will build a fast paced offense around Harden. More importantly, Houston needs to improve defensively and they hope a strong assistant coaching staff will offset D'Antoni's known deficiencies in that area.

Howard was productive as the Rockets managed his games played and minutes, which is the best strategy for maximum production from Howard moving forward. Despite a good season, however, Howard’s time with Houston is probably done. He never quite meshed with Harden and the rest of the franchise seems tired of dealing with Howard’s unique quirks. Howard will likely find a good offer elsewhere and the Rockets will move forward with Capela or another player manning the pivot.

In free agency, the Rockets should have enough space (after Howard moves on or is renounced) to make an impact move or two. They’ll try to get meetings with Kevin Durant and Al Horford to start. They’ve at least gotten in the room with a lot of major FAs in the past, so the team will want to continue that trend. Having a pitch centered on playing with one of the better players in the league certainly helps get other players interested.

Assuming Durant and Horford aren’t interested in joining the Rockets, the team will turn towards other targets. With Harden functioning as the primary ball handler, having shooting all around him is key. A PG like Brandon Jennings or Jerryd Bayless makes sense to back up Patrick Beverley.

At the PF position Ryan Anderson could be a target or Mirza Teletovic if Houston wanted a cheaper option. Marvin Williams and Jeff Green could be veteran options that can play both SF and PF. Derrick Williams and Marreese Speights are outside the box options that can pair nicely with Harden. If the Rockets want an offensive minded big to pair with Capela, Al Jefferson could be a nice addition. 

The Rockets aren’t far from contention, but they could fall out of relevance without making the right moves. Supplementing Capela and the young PFs with proven big man talent and a new backup PG are priorities. But they both pale in comparison to hiring the right coach that can motivate Harden to play his best all-around basketball. Locking in on that could have the Rockets right back to challenging the Warriors, Thunder and Spurs in the Western Conference.

Offseason Details

Guaranteed Contracts (8): Trevor Ariza, Patrick Beverly, Corey Brewer, Clint Capela, Sam Dekker, James Harden, Montrezl Harrell, K.J. McDaniels

Partial/Non-Guaranteed Contracts (2): Michael Beasley, Andrew Goudelock

Potential Free Agents (5): Dwight Howard (PO – UFA), Terrence Jones (RFA), Donatas Motiejunas (RFA), Josh Smith (UFA), Jason Terry (UFA)

“Dead” Money on Cap (0): None

First Round Draft Picks: None

Maximum Cap Space: $44,227,808

Projected Cap Space: None. $7,034,814 over