This 2016 draft class is not very impressive as far as point guards are concerned. None of these prospects have shown true superstar potential and only Vanderbilt’s Wade Baldwin IV can potentially be dreamed of as a second or third best guy on a contender in the distant future with the right breaks along the way.

Providence’s Kris Dunn is the best player at this point and probably the only one who could be tasked with creating shots for 35 minutes a night right now. His upside may be limited but his floor seems fairly safe, as it’s incredibly difficult to imagine he won’t at a minimum command a role as a 24-minute-per-game sixth man for most of his career.

Notre Dame’s Demetrius Jackson upside is as a 24-minute-per-game sixth man on a team with a more capable shot creator in front of him in the rotation, given his limitations as a passer, but considering how long guys like Ramon Sessions and DJ Augustin have been in the NBA, he’s also unlikely to become a substantial loss if drafted anywhere outside the lottery.

But Kentucky’s Tyler Ulis and Oregon State’s Gary Payton II round up the top five and, as such, clarify why this is such a weak class for this position. Barring some comprehensive changes in the way they play, both face substantial challenges to become meaningful contributors at the pro level.

Let’s dive into the specifics of each prospect.

Kris Dunn

Dunn was rated a late-lottery pick last year but opted to return for another season of college ball and that bet is likely to pay off, as he’s now expected to go in the top five of next week’s draft. That’s mostly thanks to the weakness of this specific class at the top, though. Dunn did not manage to fill the gaps in his game with the extra year in the junior ranks, as questions over his shooting, his decision making and his effort on defense remain.

Phil Jackson once pointed out that the issue with Iman Shumpert’s shooting is that every shot he takes looks different. That’s the same problem Dunn faces. He is capable of making jumpers both off the catch and off the dribble, converting 36% of his 269 mid-range shots and 36% of his 190 three-point shots over the last two season – according to hoop-math. But the lack of consistency in his mechanics leads to skepticism over his true ability to make shots.

That concern, combined with the fact he’s turnover-prone, can chip away some of the value Dunn adds on offense. He is a pretty good shot creator (more on that in a second) but one that is not particularly well developed in the margins, often misguided in his attempts to thread the needle in traffic and driving into a crowd more regularly than you’d expect for a 22-year-old with 3,000 minutes of NCAA experience under his belt. His handle is also not that tight for someone who likes doing his fair share of dribbling without purpose. As consequence of all these issues, Dunn turned the ball over on 21% of Providence’s possessions when he was on the floor over the last four years – according to our stats database.

Focus and discipline are also problems on the other end. Dunn does not stay in a stance when he is on the weak-side and can often be caught flat-footed defending on the ball as well when his man is not an immediate threat to pull-up from range.

But he has the length (six-foot-nine wingspan), the strength (205-pound frame in the context of his six-foot-four height) and the lateral quickness to potentially become an elite defender when the effort is present. His physical profile provides switch-ability - as he’s proven able to box out bigger players and pitch in on the defensive glass (collecting 15% of opponents’ misses over the last four years), aside from optionality - as it isn’t much of a stretch to envision him guarding wings with regularity. It also helps with his aggressiveness jumping passing lanes, as his long arms turn these plays into steals instead of deflections – averaging three takeaways per 40 minutes last season.

That size and potential on defense is really bice but Dunn’s biggest appeal to most teams picking at the top of the order is probably his ability to generate offense. After he forces those turnovers, Dunn has not only shown great speed in the open court but also the smarts passing ahead to increase pace and hitting shooters trailing or sprinting to the corners. According to research by Draft Express, almost a quarter of his assists came in transition last season.

In the halfcourt, Dunn’s speed translates into his ability to turn the corner out of the pick-and-roll, get into the lane running downhill and attack length at the basket with explosiveness. He has proven able to hang in the air and score around rim protection, exhibiting nice touch on such non-dunk finishes. Dunn shot 62% at the rim last season, with such attempts amounting to almost 40% of his shot profile. All that pressure attacking the middle also led to seven foul shots per 40 minutes, though he didn’t maximize his profits due to converting just 69.5% of them.

Dunn is not one of those passers who anticipate passing lanes a second before they come open but has proven able to pass on the move very well when he forces the defense to collapse against his dribble penetration, assisting on 42% of Providence’s scores when he was on the floor last season – which ranked him third in the country.

His age may cause some decision makers to ponder how much better he can still get but the flip-side of that coin is that Dunn is one of the prospects with the highest floors in this draft.

Wade Baldwin IV

Baldwin is, in many ways, a very similar player to Dunn but since he is two years younger, lots of people consider him a more appealing prospect.

The 20-year-old also has incredible size for the position, even playing some of his freshman year as an off guard. Much like Dunn, Baldwin has the length (six-foot-11 wingspan), the strength (202-pound frame in the context of his six-foot-four height) and the lateral quickness to become an elite defender if the effort is present. That wasn’t the case at all times last season but when he was engaged, Baldwin impressed with his ability to navigate ball-screens and recover in time to contest mid-range jumpers or kick-out passes. That’s how his long arms make an impact on defense, as he didn’t post particularly impressive steal rates for someone with his length.

His combination of size and athleticism suggests Baldwin could become the sort of chess piece that provides optionality for his coach to have him guard wings around the perimeter but that isn’t the case yet since whenever he was asked to defend off the ball, Baldwin had lapses in focus that cost Vanderbilt in a few occasions. He does offer switch-ability, though, picking up Perry Ellis a couple of times in the game against Kansas and proving able to hold his ground in the post perfectly fine.

Offensively, Baldwin is also similar to Dunn in the matter of passing out of dribble penetration. Vanderbilt played a motion offense that often exhausted most of the shot clock through the high post without cracking an opening in the defense but Baldwin did have opportunities to create out of pick-and-roll and proved able to play with nice pace, keep his dribble alive, make the pocket pass and hit weak-side spot-up shooters – assisting on a third of Vanderbilt’s scores when he was on the floor last season.

Baldwin also has the exact same weakness as Dunn when he attempts to create for others; possessing a loose handle that makes him vulnerable to getting the ball stripped in traffic and misguidedly trying to thread the needle on some long-shot assist attempts – turning it over on almost a fifth of his team’s possessions when he ran offense.

But in terms of scoring areas, they are almost complete opposites.

Baldwin’s best method of putting points on the board is from the outside. His mechanics are a bit unorthodox, with the release point almost at forehead level, but he has proven able to nail catch-and-shoot jump-shots at an excellent rate – converting 42.2% of his 199 three-point shots over the last couple of seasons.

Baldwin is not as prolific making shots off the bounce, though, and there is concern that won’t be any sort of asset for him at the pro level, as he is not expected to generate the sort of separation he needs to get these mid-range jumpers off comfortably with his approach to shooting.

That’s the case because his athletic ability is a bit of a mixed bag. Baldwin can be pretty explosive in a straight line, attacking downhill in space, even flashing the ability to score at the basket with power. But he struggles to turn the corner out of the pick-and-roll at this point of his development, has not shown to be dynamic enough to go side-to-side to get by his man and even failed to burn opposing big men on switches.

At the rim, Baldwin has had trouble scoring against length, despite the fact he has flashed the ability to hang in the air and finish through contact at times – converting just 53% of his 188 shots at the basket over the last couple of seasons, per hoop-math. His safe heaven attacking the middle is that his frame invites contact, awarding him with 7.7 foul shots per 40 minutes last season, which he converted at an 80% clip.

A potential red flag for Baldwin regards his lack of production against high level competition. According to our database, in eight appearances against teams ranked in the Associated Press’ top 25, he averaged 16 points per 40 minutes on 37% shooting and posted a 1.7-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Demetrius Jackson

Jackson is almost a contrast of the top two players on the board: quicker and possessing a more polished skill-set on offense but without the same upside on defense.

The 21 year-old (he’ll be 22 by the time the season starts) played in a pretty good offense at Notre Dame - one that spaced the court adequately, functioned with nice pace, made him give up the ball to move the defense from side-to-side before he got it back and put him in the pick-and-roll constantly (although, except for when the opponent went zone).

Jackson showed some excellence working his way around ball-screens - exhibiting an explosive first step to turn the corner, great quickness to stop-and-start in a pinch, the ability to go side-to-side to snake the pick-and-roll and a nifty hesitation move to split the double. He can attack length at the rim with power and the strength (194-pound frame in the context of six-foot-two height) to absorb contact and still finish – converting 61.7% of his 149 shots at the rim last season, via hoop-math.

Complementing his interior scoring, Jackson is also a threat to score from range. He’s a very good shooter, both off the dribble and off the catch – showcasing compact mechanics, a quick release and great elevation off the ground (which he needs for a comfortable shot against a contest due to his six-foot-two height). Jackson nailed 38.1% of his 349 three-point shots in his three years at Notre Dame – at a pace of 4.3 three-point attempts per 40 minutes, and converted 40.5% of his 116 mid-range jumpers last season.

Jackson isn’t as prolific generating offense for others, though. He is not particularly averse to passing but his height limits his court vision in traffic. He can make pocket passes adequately and has some feel for lobbying the ball to his center diving to the basket but isn’t as good at hitting weak-side shooters spot up at the opposite corner or wing as Baldwin and Dunn. His 25% assist-rate last season is sort of unimpressive when you consider Jerian Grant was no longer on the team and Jackson was Notre Dame’s go-to option to create something late in the shot clock when the offense stagnated. Though at least he doesn’t turn the ball over at the problematic rate Baldwin and Dunn do.

Jackson has strength (194-pound frame), length (six-foot-five wingspan) and lateral quickness to be expected to develop into an average defender of opposing point guards. He is unlikely to provide optionality, though, lacking the length needed to spend time guarding wings with regularity and shouldn’t be any sort of option to pick up big men on switches either. Jackson also hasn’t displayed any special knack for generating turnovers or contributing on the defensive glass.

Tyler Ulis

Ulis is a favorite of many draftniks because of his intelligence and because he is an underdog facing very long odds of becoming an impact player at the next level due to his five-foot-nine, 149-pound frame.

Ulis’ intelligence materializes on the court in his awareness not to drive into a crowd - rarely putting himself in position to turn the ball over, and his passing on the move. His 3.5-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio over his three seasons at Kentucky are quite impressive when you consider how much dribbling with purpose Ulis was tasked with making, especially over the last couple of years.

But there is skepticism regarding how much of his ability to create for others will translate in the pros because Ulis is a below average threat to score at best. He has a tight handle, nifty hesitation moves to get by his man and the quickness to go side-to-side to snake the pick-and-roll. But that can only get Ulis separation to launch mid-range jump-shots, since he can’t attack length at the basket with any sort of burst or explosiveness.

Ulis is a decent shot maker off the bounce, even from three-point range, but does not play with the sort of aggressiveness someone his size needs in order to be deemed a credible threat for the defense to be thrown out of balance. Jonathan Tjarks made a good point about JJ Barea once, that also applies to others like him such as Nate Robinson and Isaiah Thomas; people often complain about how these guys tend to dribble the air out of the ball and hunt for their own shots constantly but that’s really the only way they can survive in that league. And Ulis has never shown the propensity to do that.

On top of that, he projects to be a massive liability on defense. He’s aware of where he is supposed to be, which rotations he is supposed to make and the proper time to gamble. He tries to fight, front and get physical whenever he finds himself switched on a big man. Ulis has the lateral quickness and puts in the effort to stay in front but, simply put, he lacks the length and the strength to contribute in any sort of meaningful way.

Gary Payton II

Payton is one of the most impressive athletes in this draft and he looks terrific in occasions where he’s able to overwhelm the competition with his athleticism; in transition, attacking the basket with a head of steam, cutting to the rim off the weak-side, engaged defending in space and pursuing the ball off the glass. Payton shot 65% on 374 attempts at the rim and collected 19% of opponents’ misses over his two seasons at Oregon State. Those are two appealing pieces of data.

The problems regard Payton’s ability to perform in a structured environment. His decision making running offense in the half-court was questionable. He is a lousy jump-shooter as of now, both off the catch and off the dribble, which allows the opponent to consistently shell against his dribble penetration. As a result, Payton is often in a difficult position to create good looks for himself or others against a set defense.

He assisted on a third of Oregon State’s scores when he was on the floor last season but that piece of data is misleading. Watching him play, you realize not many of those assists happened with him drawing help and showcasing some special ability to pass on the move. Oregon State ran a motion offense with emphasis on getting the ball to people coming off side screens and many of Payton’s assists came on him simply passing the ball to these shooters out of a standstill position. The offense created those shots, not him.

He was not given much opportunity to run middle high pick-and-roll. Payton flashed the ability to make basic reads whenever he did have the chance to operate around a ball-screen but nothing particularly impressive.

Payton has the length, the strength and the lateral quickness to become an elite defender if the effort is present, and he can absolutely make magic happen in the open court. But he has too many gaps in his skill-set at this point of his development to be a credible presence in a half-court offense in the Era of three-point shooting, which is discouraging when you consider he’s already 23 years old.

More Draft Breakdowns

Shooting Guards

Small Forwards

Power Forwards