Fresh off their sixth straight playoff appearance, the Los Angeles Clippers are in the midst of the most successful run in franchise history. The previous best run for the Clippers was three straight postseasons and that was when the franchise was the Buffalo Braves. Despite the success, each season ends feeling a little unfulfilled. The Clippers have only made it out of the first round in half of those years and each of those years they have bowed out in the second round. For one of the most expensive rosters in the league, that simply isn’t going to cut it.

With a pricey core of Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan locked in, the Clippers hit last summer with the goal of filling out their rotation. Wesley Johnson and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute quickly re-signed at the start of free agency to help fill out the forward rotation. Mbah a Moute, who has been a starter for the last two years, signed a two-year deal with a player option for 17-18. Johnson reached agreement on a three-year deal that has a player option in the final year of 18-19.

Los Angeles then turned to the backcourt and re-signed Jamal Crawford and Austin Rivers. Both have been valuable depth pieces and each signed three-year deals. Crawford’s deal is partially guaranteed for 18-19, while Rivers’ contract has a player option for the same year.

Following those re-signings, the Clippers were limited to minimum contracts to fill out the rest of the roster and did so with veterans Marreese Speights, Raymond Felton, Brandon Bass, and Alan Anderson. Speights received a two-year deal and the others all got one-year contracts. Speights and Felton ended up as members of the rotation, while Bass and Anderson were mostly deep bench options that didn’t receive regular playing time.

Los Angeles also added rookies Brice Johnson and Diamond Stone from the draft. With a deep, veteran roster, they combined to play 10 NBA games. Johnson spent most of the year recovering from injury while Stone logged extensive time in the NBA D-League.

Flipping it forward to the summer of 2017, Los Angeles appears to be at a crossroads. The consistent playoff appearances are nice and all, but to never even make a Conference Finals is frustrating. In addition, outside of Jordan, who is an ironman, the Clippers other stars have all been nicked up over the past few seasons. Paul, Griffin and J.J. Redick have all missed time in recent years with various maladies. This has contributed to the Clippers not advancing further than the second round of the playoffs.

Further complicating things is that Paul, Griffin and Redick are free agents this summer. Los Angeles has indicated they would like to retain all three players, but to do so would lock the Clippers into a historically expensive roster. Paul and Griffin will command max deals starting north of $35 and $30 million respectively. As the president of the National Basketball Players Association, Paul pushed for a change in rules to allow a player of his age to sign a longer term deal than previously possible. If the Clippers are to retain him, it will have to be on a full five-year maximum contract. Redick is going to ask for, and likely get, a contract starting around $20 million from someone. Steve Ballmer is the richest owner in the NBA and one of the most willing to spend, but even he has a breaking point. It isn’t only the salary that would be laid out, but the Clippers would face a luxury tax bill like no team has ever seen.

And that is the most complicating factor of all. Is Ballmer ready to lay out more money than any owner in history for a roster that may have limited upside? Even if Griffin and Paul return, the Clippers are still behind Golden State, San Antonio and Houston in the Western Conference while several other teams are pushing hard behind them. To lock in for the next four to five years with this group is a questionable strategy, both short and long term.

It has been reported that Paul will at least explore the option of playing elsewhere with the Spurs mentioned most prominently. Other teams have expressed interest in trading for Griffin in the past and will pursue him as a free agent. Every NBA team can use a shooter like Redick, so he won’t have a shortage of interested teams. The most likely scenario is that the Clippers aggressively try to re-sign Paul and Griffin, while letting Redick walk to save at least some money.

If Los Angeles does re-sign Paul and Griffin, they would probably want to retain Mbah a Moute, who they value for this defense and versatility at the forward position. They’ll then either re-sign the bench veterans they have on minimum deals or at slight raises. Or they’ll move on and replace them with similar-type players on minimum contracts.

If Paul or Griffin leave, Redick is likely gone as well. He’s not going to sign up for a rebuilding process at this point in his career. At that point, the Clippers should move forward with a complete rebuild. Jordan could be traded and return a nice package of assets to aid in the rebuilding efforts. Crawford and Wesley Johnson could also interest teams who need bench depth, as both are paid fairly for the role they play.

Los Angeles could then focus on short term deals with veterans and overpay slightly for younger players, not dissimilar to the strategy recently employed by the Brooklyn Nets. While it would be a massive step back in the short term, it could be what is best for the franchise’s long term health.

Despite the Clippers' success in recent years, which has coincided with the Lakers on a downswing, Los Angeles remains a Lakers town. It would take a decade or more of the Clippers contending for championships, while the Lakers miss the playoffs, for that to begin to change. Many suspect that wouldn’t even be enough. It is a unique situation in the NBA and the Clippers have to be careful because of it. It took them years to step out of being the laughingstock of the NBA and to a relevant franchise. Falling back to irrelevancy isn’t that big of a drop. It is up to Doc Rivers and newly hired Jerry West to navigate those dangerous waters and keep things moving forward for LA’s second franchise. 

Offseason Details

Guaranteed Contracts (6): Jamal Crawford, Brice Johnson, Wesley Johnson, DeAndre Jordan, Austin Rivers, Diamond Stone

Partial/Non-Guaranteed Contracts (1): Paul Pierce

Potential Free Agents (8): Alan Anderson (UFA), Brandon Bass (UFA), Raymond Felton (UFA), Blake Griffin (UFA – Player Option), Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (UFA – Player Option), Chris Paul (UFA – Player Option), J.J. Redick (UFA), Marreese Speights (UFA – Player Option)

“Dead” Money on Cap (3): $650,000 (Carlos Delfino), $510,921 (Jordan Farmar), $252,043 (Miroslav Raduljica)

First Round Draft Pick(s): None

Maximum Cap Space: $36,357,897

Projected Cap Space: None. $43,078,591 over