A few weeks ago, I had a chance to interview David Thorpe (of Scouts Inc. and ESPN fame,) and we spent most of our time talking about scouting, specifically through the lens of Kevin Durant.

In that time, I've engaged myself in some lively and entertaining debates on the merits of Kevin Durant's rookie season in the NBA and his potential versus that of upcoming top-2 pick Michael Beasley from Kansas State.  In this latest edition of Showtime, I'll cover some of what David Thorpe had to say about scouting (and Kevin Durant, in particular) and then compare the two players as prospects.  

We'll open up with Mr. Thorpe's comments.  

We had a brief discussion about the nature of scouting when he talked about how he does his scouting; in short, he emphasizes mainly on what a player has achieved, rather than projecting out.  

He also talked about how age had little to do with a player's potential to develop and that rather than age, it was where the player played, for whom he played, and more personal traits such as work ethic and what kind of barriers to improvement exist in a player's path to reaching his goals.  

He also affirmed the value of statistics, in particular the more advanced statistics, in the evaluation of a player, since the statistics tend to support the qualitative observations a scout makes of a player.  

In short, that means when he looks at Durant's rookie season and his freshman year at college, he's looking objectively at what actually happened.  He sees that he scored 20 ppg and somewhat ignores the 43% FG, which is actually higher than that posted by superior physical specimens Lebron James (41.7%) and Carmelo Anthony (42.6%).  

He sees that Durant shot 28.8% from downtown but also that he shot over 36% during the last 8 games of the season and 34% or so over more than a dozen games in December.  He sees that Durant's shooting mechanics are quite good despite a little fade and that the range issue is more of an adjustment period and a matter of cresting the learning curve on when and how to take a shot from NBA 3-point range.  

Above all, he sees that Durant was 19-years-old and that he's still developing physically, adjusting to the NBA game.  

The important aspects that Thorpe sees in Durant are actually quite promising.  For one, he looks at Durant and sees an instinctual scorer, someone with a very good grasp on what to do in order to put the ball in the hole.  Durant looks good in isolation scenarios, seemingly possessing a comfortable grasp on how to use angles and changing speeds to get a look at the basket and also evidencing good body control.  He also shows that he knows how to use his height.  Thorpe compared playing basketball to playing the piano; you can teach pretty well anyone to play the piano, and they'll be able to do it but they aren't naturals; they aren't gifted at it.  Durant, according to Mr. Thorpe, is a gifted scorer, and his understanding will improve with time and training.  This is borne out some by his rookie season, which saw continuously diminishing volumes of three-pointers after the All-Star break as he focused more on getting to the rim and on getting better looks at the basket for his mid-range jumper.  

Durant's big problem, aside from shot selection and team-related issues, has been his ignorance of the second defender.  A good NBA scorer, Thorpe says, can assume he'll get past the first defender, and Durant seems to do this but he keeps running into the help.  As he grows in understanding, he'll mesh his inherent confidence and scoring talent with an understanding of where players are on the floor and how to move in order to make it harder for the help to come get him.  

One of the most eye-opening portions of the interview was Thorpe's description of Durant's potential as a passer.  While not discussing him as a point forward, he had complimentary words to say about Durant's ability to not only 'make the right play' but to create out of broken sets, to see passes outside of the offense, and to make plays under pressure.  

So, in the eyes of at least one NBA scout (and obviously many more), Kevin Durant has a wealth of potential and has begun to realize it as early as his rookie season.  His second season, which will be spent in Oklahoma City instead of Seattle, should be quite interesting.  Lacking the addition of a significant player through free agency or the draft, the Sonics/Thunder figure to be a very poor team again, but with a year of NBA experience under his belt as the main man on a team with little help, one hopes to see a measurable improvement in Durant's game in at least one facet.  

Separate from Thorpe's comments, I can't myself help but wonder what barriers there are to Durant's improvement as a player.  Certainly, his primary marketable attribute is his scoring and, therein, primarily his shooting.  He's a shooter, which is why he's been capable of playing the off-guard position at 6'10.  As he fills out, everyone notes that he'll eventually move to the three, and it's of little concern where he plays at this point because he'll have a height mismatch at either position, and a quickness mismatch against power forwards should he play minutes at the four.  

Of some note, however, is that as a rookie, DrawF rate was a somewhat anemic 12.1%. He drew fouls at a mere 0.328 FTA/FGA rate, which is mediocre (although not terrible).  

Somewhat reassuringly, LeBron's rookie DrawF was 11.3%, although this was the year before the no-handchecking rule began to be heavily enforced, and his DrawF jumped to 13.3% in his second season and 16.3% by his third season.  

Carmelo Anthony drew at 13% as a rookie, 14.2% as a sophomore, and 15.2% in his third season, so all eyes will be peeled to see if Durant manages to increase the rate at which he draws fouls, perhaps garnering some respect from the refs as he pays his dues and perhaps works to take fewer jumpers (which were 74% of his shot attempts last season) and more slashing action moving towards the rim.  

The other barrier is, of course, the lack of elite physical traits.  Neither as physically imposing nor as staggeringly athletic as LeBron, Durant is slower, less explosive, and considerably thinner than either LeBron or Anthony, limiting his options in terms of what he can do as a scorer (at least in principle).  This isn't really a terrible barrier; in reality, what this does is limit the scope of his potential for drawing fouls at an especially high rate and so it would seem to limit Durant to high-volume shooting if he wants to reach the pinnacles of NBA scoring prowess, requiring 20+ FGA/g to get to 27-30 ppg.  

Of course, that's a relative barrier; if Durant "only" reaches 25 ppg or so, that's still an absolutely spectacular achievement, near the top in the league on a perennial basis.  

Durant's potential?  25-27 ppg sounds like a comfortable estimate to me because I do not believe he'll get the shot volume or the DrawF necessary to exceed that level, impressive as is such achievement.  Three to five assists per game is starting to seem very possible, as well, particularly if his passing acumen is as sharp as Thorpe believes.  His rebounding will be positionally based, anywhere from 3-6 per game at the 2 and upwards of 7 if he gets a little more muscle and bulk so he can more effectively play the forward positions.  

To whom does he compare?  The early comparisons have been to players like Rashard Lewis but that misses the passing ability of which Thorpe speaks so highly and certainly does not speak to Durant's ability to play the 2 in an entire season.  Durant strikes more as Dirk Nowitzki, a little shorter, more athletic and perhaps a better passer, but in principle, a tall face-up forward who can attack from the deep outside zones as a shooter, a slasher and, at times, a post player to work mismatches against smaller opponents (which Durant already does more readily than does Dirk).  

So if that's Durant's theoretical potential, what is that of Michael Beasley?

An entirely different physical type: Beasley's 6'8, 240 pounds, a 7' wingspan, and an 8'11 standing reach.  He doesn't have the raw height of a true power forward, but he has the arms for it, similar to Elton Brand.  He's also fairly athletic although not quite in the elite tier of players such as Josh Smith.  He's got a pretty nice perimeter jumper, a strong face-up game, and some back-to-the-basket skills.  He, like Durant, had a dominant freshman season, showcasing all manners of rebounding and scoring ability.  

Like Durant, he is unimpressive defensively but has potential to improve, yet his primary contributions will be volume scoring and rebounding.  Unlike Durant, he has all the physical tools to draw fouls at a very high rate and projects very much like Carmelo Anthony with better rebounding.  He has the potential to be a very prolific scorer on greater efficiency than Durant although not nearly as dangerous as a shooter beyond the arc.  Beasley has experienced difficulties going against taller, more athletic forwards at times but has been difficult to evaluate from a college perspective because he did not have a terrifically talented team at Kansas State, and that was a problem exacerbated by the college rule set.  

Beasley has an especially dangerous face-up game that should translate well to the NBA; he possesses strong leaping ability, a decent handle, and a good jumper from right at the rim on out to 22 feet or so, leaving him the prospects of being a terrifying high post scoring threat.  

Does he project as superior to Durant?  Beasley figures to look more like a 27-30 ppg, 8-12 rpg (depending on his forward position), and 2-4 apg guy.  His ranges are broader because he doesn't have an NBA season under his belt to give added scouting material at the higher level of competition.  Ultimately, who is better will be determined more by team success than any individual production, for while Beasley will be the gaudier offensive weapon in terms of scoring efficiency and fouls drawn, I suspect that Durant's passing may prove to be a valuable trait to parlay, since it is considerably better than what we have seen from Beasley, thus far.  

So which is better?  It come down to style, and at that point, team success is the only real separation.  So until the end of Beasley's rookie season, he can really only be compared stylistically to others and projected.  He projects as a guy who'll fall into something like an amalgamation between Elton Brand (sans defensive impact) and Carmelo Anthony.  

Both of these guys are elite prospects with huge potential; both of them should have their names at the top of the NBA scoring race for years to come.  Who will be better?  The journey to that answer will be extremely entertaining.