Rumors have been flying involving Raptors' center Jermaine O?Neal and Heat forward Shawn Marion. They?ve both been in difficult situations, with Marion never having been particularly happy on a team that plays outside of his style and O?Neal discovering what every player dreads: returning from an injury only to lose a starting spot. They have among the highest salaries in the league, making them tough to trade, and each team has a hole where the other has an apparently quite tradable player.

Permutations of the trade are numerous, most involving the Raptors taking back the contract of backup point guard Marcus Banks. Banks? salary runs until 2011, past the glorious free-agent summer of 2010, making this an obstacle. The Raptors would likely prefer to take back someone with a shorter contract to make salaries work, but no names have surfaced in any widespread rumors.

Now there are rumblings that the Heat have demanded the Heat perspective, considering they?d be out a small forward without Marion. It could also be argued that Marion?s a vastly superior version of Moon, thus making the latter expendable to the Raptors. This doesn?t necessarily tell the whole story.

The Heat have been playing good ball this year, probably better than most expected. They?re 24-19, sixth in the east, and will have considerable cap flexibility this summer without Marion?s hulking contract (approximately $17 million this year) on the books. They have a young team, with Dwyane Wade and Michael Beasley looking like a solid tandem for the future. Marion could also fetch someone in a sign-and-trade this summer based on his new salary, which would likely be reduced drastically. If the Heat trade now, they have to trade for $17 million worth of salary rather than a smaller amount later.

Taking back O?Neal would be the zenith of that problem; he makes approximately $21 million this year and $23 million next year. He?s also a good fit for the Heat at first glance, providing the starting center the team needs (unless 6?8? forward Udonis Haslem, one-dimensional shot-blocker Joel Anthony, or washed-up Mark Blount are considered enough). Following Alonzo Mourning?s long-awaited retirement, the team?s need for a center seems as urgent as ever.

Although falling in importance since his Suns' days, Marion?s still an important cog in an offense that works at least well enough. If the Heat were to trade Marion for O?Neal, the latter would become their second option on offense, which would normally be fine, except that he?s been injury-riddled for a large portion of the season. If he were healthy, the Raptors wouldn?t be willing to hear overtures about him at all. If O?Neal hits the pine in Miami, either Beasley has to step up in a massive way or Haslem would have to play second option. Such a scenario would seriously endanger Miami?s playoff hopes, all so the team can get older and pay more salary next season. Even if Banks can be dumped and Moon can be acquired, it still doesn?t quite work.

Again, for the Raptors, this is a trade that works better at first glance than after anything nearing close inspection. Marion fits well with Andrea Bargnani, with the former?s greatest strength (rebounding) being the latter?s greatest weakness. Marion?s expiring status presents problems for the Raptors, though. If the Raptors trade O?Neal and Moon for Marion and Banks and then Marion leaves for more verdant fields this summer, they?ve traded TJ Ford, Rasho Nesterovic, a first-round pick, and Jamario Moon all for the privilege of paying Banks nearly $5 million in the 2010/2011 season. O?Neal could fetch more as an expiring contract next season, or the team could let him expire in 2010 en route to a hopeful free agent haul.

Moon isone of the best deals in the league. He?s making a minimum salary to start. Alongside Anthony Parker, who?s making under $5 million to begin at shooting guard, the Raptors have clearly not invested very much in wing players. Even Jason Kapono?s $6 million per year deal is nothing compared to the considerable cash being paid to O?Neal and Chris Bosh up front. Even if Moon is somewhat like an inferior Marion, he?s still a valuable player,both in the pocketbooks and on the court. There?s also an argument, based on the success or faiure of Moon's inconsistent play, that the Raptors would be best served keeping him as a starter and hunting for a shooting guard.

From what little the mainstream media can offer us, the trade appears to be based around a Marion/O?Neal swap, with Banks likely required for salary purposes and Moon as a potential sweetener. Marion could leave the Raptors empty-handed, in what would be a blatant cost-cutting move; O?Neal?s injuries could destroy whatever team chemistry the Heat have and then shackle the team for $23 million next year; Banks?s contract is just plain undesirable; and Moon is a player the Raptors can?t afford to lose in this kind of trade, and that wouldn?t revive the Heat in the event of another O?Neal injury.

Were Marion more productive and O?Neal healthy, this trade wouldn?t be good for either team because each would want to keep its high-salaried player. The way things are, it might be even worse, as the team not needing to take huge risks (Miami) could get burned for $23 million of bench-warming (remember the end of Mourning?s huge contract in 2003?), and the team needing to hold onto assets (Toronto) could end up watching Marion flutter away while Banks occupies his own share of the pine for almost $5 million. It?s an interesting concept, but it?s too uncertain for either side.

Oddly enough, it?s one of Pat Riley?s famous sayings that works best here. When asked about the notion of trading Brian Grant for expiring contracts back in 2003, he answered, ?assets for assets?. While both Marion and O?Neal certainly fall into that category now, they might not qualify six months from now for each receiving team in this trade. That, even more than Moon?s status as potential deal-breaker, could be what scuppers these negotiations. (If the trade happens and something goes wrong with either team, you?ve been warned.)