So it's time for a new post.  Actually, it's past time for a new post, but we'll ignore that.

Today's topic is the Phoenix Suns.  

There is a great deal to say about what has passed before, so I'm going to ignore all of that for now.  Instead, I'm going to focus on a couple of more immediate things, mostly the Orlando game and what's coming up in Miami.  

It was clear that Steve Nash needed to rest more; Shaq looked a lot better when Nash wasn't messing around and turning the ball over; an assist/turnover ratio of nearly 1:1 is terrible for Nash, especially because the Suns can't afford those turnovers on account of their poor defense.  In any case, Nash had a decidedly unusual game, particularly in the second half; his ankle was still bothering him, it must have been, because he was so tentative.  There was one play where he drove, had a point-blank layup and elected to pass through traffic out to Jason Richardson, who fortunately hit the three.  

The Suns lost this game mainly because they did a terrible job of guarding Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu, both of whom torched the team (Rashard had 11 points in the fourth quarter alone and had a great night on the glass, too).  One might also point a finger at how Rafer was getting into the paint, drawing fouls and hitting the three-point shooters very well and criticize Nash, but it was his first game back from a mobility injury, so it would be fruitless.

But why did I bring up this game?  It's done and past, right?  Nash was busting chemistry because he came back too early and the game was winnable but for a few miscues and a really rough 3rd quarter.  There were a few notable aspects of the game that were problematic for the Suns.

The first of these was finishing on the break; this wasn't a critical failure on their part but Grant Hill missed a couple of what should have been gimme-layups coming from the right side (not his favorite side) and the Suns really didn't have anyone to work with on the break that could finish.  As a corollary to this, Nash didn't have his favorite play available to him, the high sidescreen.  

When Amare's in the game (or in Dallas, Dirk), Nash loves to catch a screen on the wing, and work from there.  It's a very effective play, but more importantly, while it creates a lot of options (ball-handler drives, pass to the roll, pass to the pop, pass to the wing, pass to a cutter), it's also a very fast-developing play.  And it's his bread-and-butter.  This is what has made Nash so effective.  He could run it with Amare, he could run it with Diaw...

He can't run it all that often with Shaq, nor can he do all that much with it if he's running it with whichever of Barnes or Hill happens to be running small at the 4.  Amundson isn't super-effective in this play either.  

The other major areas where the Suns were noticeably lacking are rebounding and help defense.  Now, in this particular game, the Suns were only -1 on the glass, largely because Shaq grabbed 6 offensive rebounds, but the point is they couldn't put down an advantage in the rebounding column.  In April 2007, The Painted Area published an interesting blog post that noted that only two teams had ever won a title with a negative rebounding margin (the Rockets title squads of the mid-90s) and in the last 20 years, every title squad had at least a rebounding margin of +1.0.  Only two other teams besides those Rockets squads even made the Finals with a negative rebounding margin.

Right now, the Suns are at about 0.99, so they've improved their rebounding from back in the D'Antoni days, thanks to Shaq's presence.  But now they're missing what they had then, which was roughly acceptable perimeter defense on account of Marion's versatility.  Kevin Pelton added to this in a comment to the follow-up post on The Painted Area in January of this year:

"The average champion over your original timespan (1987-2006) is 4.2 percent better than league average on the offensive glass and 1.7 percent better on the defensive glass."

The Suns, for the record, are currently 24th in the league in total team offensive rebounds.  They're tops in the league in team eFG% and they're 5th in FTM/FGA; their offense is generally pretty good, but they're a little below league average in offensive rebounding, which doesn't square with Pelton's comment about NBA champions in that specific timeframe. They're also 22nd in defensive rebounding percentage.  

So, getting to my long-winded point, while the Suns have improved on the glass, they're still not doing a good enough job.  

Beyond this, they also don't have a lot of help defense; Shaq's doing a pretty decent job down low preventing post scorers from having career nights every time they face the Suns, but he was never a dominant shot-blocker but for a year or two in his career, just a very good one.

Enter the Suns' newest addition; according to various sources, Stromile Swift has signed with the Suns and will play out the rest of the season with them... and by all accounts I've heard, is likely to become the starting PF for the team, which means he'll probably be seeing 25+ mpg for Phoenix within a games.  If these reports are true, he might even be in uniform for the Miami game.  

Swift is many things; worth his draft selection in the 2000 draft is not one of them but what he has always brought is strong offensive rebounding, shot-blocking and athleticism.  He's 6'9 or 6'10, and has a wingspan of about 7'3.  He's pretty strong and does a decent job of single coverage in the post. He's an outstanding transition finisher and even in the halfcourt, he moves pretty well without the ball to get dunks from teammates.  He's got a decent face-up game with a competent left hand, and some years he's got an acceptable mid-range jumper.  Usually, he's also not all that bad at the line, too.

So in one move, the Suns have signed a guy who should really help with a lot of the problems we've just been discussing.  It falls to Stro to perform, but you expect that he will because it's a limited role but one in which he can succeed, and it's a contract year.  

What does this do for Phoenix?

Well, it makes them a much more significant threat to make the postseason.  Even if Stro only matches the production he's managed over his career (about 9/5 and a block, or about 15/8 and 2+ blocks PER36), then you're talking about a guy who is still going to shore up their frontcourt rotation. He's a guy who can give Shaq a rest, who can work well with Nash...

This is probably the best situation into which Swift has ever walked.  He's as close to a really poor-man's Amare as you can get, which is exactly what Nash has been missing in Amare's absence this year.  This isn't an epic steal like Gasol to the Lakers, but it could prove to be an important transaction as the stretch run begins.  Swift has been an efficient player when he has shot over his career.  He's not an All-Star in hiding, nor is he going to really even approach replacing what Amare brought to the team offensively, but he'll give Nash that extra option and he'll be another efficient tool for a team that's already shooting a hair over 50% FG as a team, which is dangerous when you consider the defensive and rebounding advantages that he will also bring to the team.  

If he's given 25 mpg, I'd expect something like 10 and 6 out of Stro on good percentages, maybe even efficiency greater than usual on account of Nash and Phoenix's offensive system.  If he can do that while blocking shots, playing good D and hitting the glass hard, then he's going to do a lot for a team that's looking for a booster shot so they can push for that last playoff spot and take it from Dallas.