•  More than an Upset

The game of the weekend was probably Nebraska’s victory over No. 2 Texas. Listening to various comments after the game, I am convinced there are three types of analysts.

Analyst #1: The realist. Call this the Joe Lunardi response. He looks at Nebraska’s win over Texas and warns us that while it certainly helps Nebraska’s at-large profile, the team still has a lot of work to do to make the NCAA tournament. The RPI wins and losses are still not great.

Analyst #2: The idealist. Call this the Ken Pomeroy response. He looks at Nebraska’s win over Texas and points out that it was far from a fluke. Nebraska’s margin-of-victory numbers have been solid all year long, and Nebraska entered the game with a top 20 defense. (Any time you play elite defense you have a chance to beat great teams, as Florida St. showed against Duke earlier this season.) Yes, this qualifies as a real upset – Nebraska had only a 23% chance of winning using the Pomeroy odds. But one-in-four is not a colossal upset.

Analyst #3: The non-numbers person. Call this the Digger Phelps response. Looking at Nebraska’s non-existent college basketball tradition, he declares this to be a colossal upset, and concludes Nebraska should be in the NCAA tournament.

The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. But when you add in the back-story of Nebraska’s last-second football loss to Texas in the 2009 Big 12 Championship game, and all the conflict between Nebraska and Texas when Nebraska jumped to the Big Ten, and it is clear that this game was about more than just NCAA tournament odds. This game was about revenge, emotion, and accomplishment.

It started as Nebraska built an 11-point lead, and the historic upset seemed moments away. But in less than a minute, Texas somehow went on a 12-1 run. First there were missed free throws by Nebraska, including that dreaded front end of the one-and-one. Then there was a foul on a three-point try that led to three made free throws for Texas. Then there was a Texas three pointer. Then there were the mindless turnovers under the basket. And somehow Texas tied the game. 

The guy in the third row said to his buddy, “We are Nebraska basketball. This is what we do.” 

But right when the negative energy flew into the arena, right as everyone said here-we-go-again, Nebraska flipped the script. Brandon Richardson drove into the lane and got fouled. And with a series of late free throws, Nebraska held on to beat a team in the top-three of the polls for the first time since 1994. They beat their Big 12 football rivals and stamped a signature moment on their Big 12 basketball legacy.

But there were so many more storylines in this game. Take Brazilian center Andre Almeida. If you were to pick players in a playground draw, he would not be the last player selected. But that is only because of his height. He would probably be second or third to last picked. The truth is the Nebraska backup big man falls much closer to “chubby” than “well-toned athlete”. Nothing about him screams elite basketball player. And yet there he was, on a day when Texas had a team full of McDonald’s All-Americans, almost single-handedly outworking Texas in the paint. Almeida was 5-for-5 from the floor. But more importantly, he was a huge contributor to the Cornhusker inside defense. Texas was held to just 14 points in the paint. And with Nebraska’s guards living in the paint thanks to great dribble penetration, Nebraska scored 38 points inside. A 38-14 advantage inside is more than just a fluke. It is a victory well-earned.

But there were other storylines. If Andre Almeida was not the last player selected in the playground draw, it might have been Drake Beranek. He grew up in a rural Nebraska town with only 1300 residents, went to a Division II Nebraska school, and finally managed to live his dream when he was allowed to join the Cornhuskers for his senior season. Yes, Beranek was responsible for a stupid late foul that gave Texas three free throws. But he’ll always have his moment. With Nebraska up two late in the game, he drew contact and watched Cory Joseph foul out of the game. And he made one of two free throws to help preserve the victory. He’s had bigger scoring days, and better performances. But nothing will match that moment. Nothing will match every eye in the state of Nebraska watching the kid who personifies the state of Nebraska in the biggest upset in over a decade. This is college basketball.

• Texas A&M – Oklahoma St.

One of the major puzzles in life is why the referee is responsible for counting a 10-second backcourt violation. Isn’t it a little hard, even with a well-trained arm-motion to hit that exactly? Well, late in the Texas A&M at Oklahoma St. game, A&M inbounded the ball with 32.6 seconds left. And at 22.7 seconds the officials whistled for a 10-second violation, just at the ball was passing halfcourt. Some may argue about the one tenth of a second, but I’m shocked the officials could get it that close. Phenomenal job.

After forcing that A&M turnover, Oklahoma St. took the ball inside to take a one-point lead. It looked like Oklahoma St. might be about to salvage their season.  But of course the players had a mind-freeze, not realizing that they were no longer trailing in the game. Instead of settling back and playing good defense, Oklahoma St. stayed up on Texas A&M’s BJ Holmes and fouled him near halfcourt. To foul near halfcourt when up one in the final seconds is an unpardonable error. And A&M’s BJ Holmes sunk both free throws to pull off the road victory. Where once Oklahoma St.’s late defense got them back in the game, moments later it cost them a chance at a win.

By the way, Texas A&M is one of those ranked teams who makes you scratch your head a little. After losing three in a row, Texas A&M has won four games in a row, but those four victories have come by 3, 3, 5, and now 1 points. And all four victories came against lower division Big 12 teams. A&M is still ranked, but they have not put together a dominant performance in several weeks.

• Villanova - DePaul

Every team has a best player, even if the team is terrible. There has to be someone to mention in the “star watch”. So I have taken DePaul freshman Cleveland Melvin with a grain of salt. Sure, he is the only DePaul non-role-player with an ORtg over 100. But I’ve certainly never considered him to be a star. But after watching the undersized forward score over Villanova’s tall center, Mouphtaou Yarou, I am starting to become a believer.  I have seen a lot of quality Big East post players struggle to score over Yarou this year, and Melvin was not one of them. With 20 in Thursday’s win over Providence and 16 in the near-win over Villanova, Melvin may be Oliver Purnell’s first true building block.

On the flip side, I am starting to have a little bit less faith in Villanova’s Antonio Pena. Pena is a fine college player. And last year he was the only consistent Villanova post player. But in the last several weeks, Villanova has played in a number of close games. And in every game it seems as if Pena misses a key shot that could win or tie the game. Maybe it is just a fluke, but for whatever reason, Pena has not been a clutch performer this year.

Corey Fisher, on the other hand, is a clutch performer. I’ve loved Fisher from the moment he walked on the floor for Villanova because of his ability to make his teammates better. But on Saturday, with Villanova struggling against DePaul, Fisher decided to put the team on his back and win the game by himself.

Fisher seemingly made the deciding play at the end of regulation with his team trailing by one. Fisher pump faked, caused the DePaul defender to jump into the air, and Fisher jumped up to draw the contact while shooting a three. But the referees mysteriously called it a clean block. That play never gets called as a clean block, but it did not matter. Fisher got the ball again with his team down three and calmly sunk a long range basket to send the game to OT. Then in OT, Fisher had his hand on a few late deflections and key baskets, to seal the road victory.

• The Should-Win Game

Derrick Williams block to preserve Arizona’s victory over Washington was clearly the most important play in the Pac-10 on Saturday. It puts Arizona in position to win the Pac-10 title if they can hold off UCLA.

But an equally critical play was Washington’s St.’s Abe Lodwick’s missing a three pointer that rimmed out as time expired in a two point loss at last place Arizona St. After the non-conference schedule, Washington St. looked like they might be the second best team in the Pac-10. Then, after an upset of Washington, they at least looked like an NCAA team. But at 7-8 in the Pac-10, with games against Washington and UCLA upcoming, Washington St. suddenly looks like one of the more disappointing teams out west. Often the road victory over a bad team is the toughest win to get.

Clemson may still be on the wrong side of the bubble, but they got one of those wins on Sunday at Miami. Jerai Grant blocked a Durand Scott layup with 24 seconds left to preserve the victory.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati nearly gave its fans a heart attack at Providence. But after blowing a late 16-point lead, Cincinnati pulled off the overtime victory. Even if they were not easy, those wins will be huge on selection Sunday.

Random Bullets

• Maryland shot 58% in the home victory over NC State, but did not make a three pointer.

• Two years ago, St. John’s was such a terrible shooting team that the only way they could stay competitive was to depend on offensive rebounding. St. John’s ranked 27^th in the nation in that category in 2009. Luckily, under Steve Lavin, the St. John’s offense is more dynamic, and offensive rebounds are no longer the only way to score. But in the final two minutes against Pittsburgh, St. John’s players recalled the importance of extra shots. DJ Kennedy and Paris Horne’s late offensive boards helped key the one point victory.

• Technically, the ACC’s pace is not slowing down as much as I predicted earlier this year. But when North Carolina scores only 48 points against a Boston College team that plays poor defense, you know at least two of the ACC coaches (Steve Donahue and Tony Bennett) have slow-play in their DNA.

• I continue to praise what Mike Rice is doing at Rutgers. His Rutgers team may not have won at Syracuse on Saturday, but for a team that has never won at the Carrier Dome, an OT loss counts as progress. The best part is, Mike Rice will not settle for the moral victory.

• Purdue’s E’Twaun Moore announced that he is back in the team’s win over Ohio St. It is hard to believe this is the same player that went 2-for-14 in a loss at Minnesota a month ago.

• If you did not see Kemba Walker’s insane pass from the three-point line, off the backboard, to himself, for an effective alley-oop in the Georgetown-UConn game, go look for it on YouTube. It was one of the most remarkable plays of the year.

The Broken Record Bracket Busters Rant

Friday Night’s VCU – Wichita St. game was a great opener for the Bracket Busters event.  And it even had a little controversy.  Wichita St. was sent to the line, down one, with less than 10 seconds left, and took the lead at the free throw line.  But then the same thing happened on the other end.  VCU’s Joey Rodriguez drew a foul and went to the line with less than one second left, and calmly sunk two free throws to earn the road upset. For once the officials refused to swallow their whistle late in the game.

It was a highly entertaining game, but equally matched mid-major teams do not always make for good TV. I think we would all prefer if the BCS leagues were forced to participate in this late season event. That would truly make it into bracket-busters television. What if Butler went to Indiana in mid-February? What if Georgetown had to go to George Mason?

When I watch a game like George Mason at Northern Iowa, I hope it makes a difference for George Mason’s at-large chances. But there are always an equal number of losers as winners. And I cannot help but feel sorry for the losers. Despite losing a ton of key players from last year’s Sweet Sixteen team, Northern Iowa has been playing spirited ball, and Kwadzo Ahelegbe had a huge game with the national TV lights shining. But when he threw the ball away late, ensuring the loss, it meant the MVC’s top-six teams lost in the Bracket-Busters. That has to hurt the leagues chances of getting an at-large bid.

I am a big believer that because the BCS schools have higher attendance and higher revenue, they should get more home games.  But requiring them to schedule a few road games at quality mid-major schools would be nice. And scheduling a few of those late in the season would be even sweeter.