Championship week has a little bit of everything. It has win-or-go-home games, the fight to stay on the bubble, and the battle for No. 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament. But most importantly, it has anticipation. There is the anticipation for next week’s NCAA tournament. And there is the anticipation for Sunday night when the bracket will finally be revealed.

Do not wait until next week to take time off work. The action starts this Tuesday afternoon from Madison Square Garden. Here are the printable tournament brackets for the top 10 Pomeroy conferences, as well as some key Nitty Gritty numbers. As always, I recommend you look at the numbers and draw your own conclusions about which teams are NCAA tournament bound.

CW = Conference Wins
CL = Conference Losses
RNW = Road Neutral Wins
RNL = Road Neutral Losses
T50W = Wins against RPI 1-50
T50L = Losses against RPI 1-50
N50W = Wins against RPI 51-100
N50L = Losses against RPI 51-100
BL = Bad Losses to RPI 101+

RPI ranking is primarily used as an organizational tool. It organizes the quality of wins and losses. Thus I do not include each team’s own RPI rank in the tables that follow. Keep in mind that the committee has deemphasized the importance of the last 10 or 12 games. But individual committee members are human and may still choose to emphasize recent play. 

Big East Tournament Printable Bracket (Tuesday-Saturday)

Marquette probably deserves to be in the NCAA field, but I would not be feeling that confident if I was a Golden Eagles fan. Marquette fans will point out that their best wins (Notre Dame, Syracuse, West Virginia, and Connecticut) are much more impressive than other bubble teams. But Marquette has also struggled away from home and that may hurt them. More than any other Big East team, Marquette could prove a lot by winning some games on a neutral floor.

Big Ten Tournament Printable Bracket (Thursday-Sunday)

Michigan, Illinois, Michigan St., and Penn St. are eerily similar at this point, but if you look a little closer you see some key differences.

First, the top 50 wins are a little misleading because Michigan and Penn St. fall just outside the top 50. This gives Penn St. credit for a top 50 win vs Illinois, but Illinois does not get credit for a top 50 win against Penn St. The committee will not miss this. Also, Illinois did well in the non-conference, beating North Carolina and Gonzaga. So when it comes to quality wins, Illinois is slightly ahead. On the other hand, Illinois has the most baffling bad losses of any team on this list.

Michigan also has some obvious points in their favor. First, even if the committee has deemphasized the last 10 or 12 games, you cannot look at the Wolverines and not be aware that they have played significantly better in the second half of the Big Ten schedule. Second, Michigan is the only one of the Big Ten bubble teams with a decent road/neutral record. Third, Michigan swept Michigan St. and Penn St. On the other hand, outside those wins, Michigan’s best win is Harvard. I am starting to believe both Illinois and Michigan might make it, but the loser of Friday’s quarterfinal will certainly be nervous on Sunday night.

Michigan St. obviously has a strong NCSOS. But in the unbalanced Big Ten schedule, Penn St. had the toughest conference schedule. Penn St. played Iowa and Indiana only once each. I honestly have no idea how this will play out. Losing the openers would be devastating, but if any of these teams can upset Ohio St., Purdue, or Wisconsin, it might completely change the pecking order.

Big 12 Tournament Printable Bracket (Wednesday-Saturday)

Baylor’s NCAA odds look slim to none at this point. With only two top 50 wins, they look similar to all the ACC bubble teams. And at 3-9 on the road, Baylor is not really in the discussion. Nebraska and Colorado were also terrible on the road, with far too many bad losses.

But Colorado beat Texas, swept Kansas St., beat Missouri, and beat MWC bubble team Colorado St. And that will certainly keep Colorado in the discussion. And if Colorado can beat Kansas St. for a third time on Thursday, it might be hard to argue to keep them out.

ACC Tournament Printable Bracket (Thursday-Sunday)

The three teams sitting at 9-7 in the ACC provide a real puzzle. Virginia Tech sounds the best because they beat Duke recently, and had an earlier win against Florida St. But Virginia Tech went 0-2 vs BC and is 0-1 against Clemson too. It is starting to look like Virginia Tech probably has to beat Florida St. in the ACC quarterfinals to have a legitimate shot at an at-large bid.

But the other two 9-7 teams are not great at-large candidates either. BC has just one top 50 win. And Clemson lost to fellow bubble teams Michigan and Old Dominion, which could block them from getting one of the last at-large bids. The loser of a Clemson vs Boston College quarterfinal is almost certainly eliminated from the discussion, but I’m not even sure if the winner will have done enough.

Finally, Maryland’s Pomeroy ranking is still solid, but their odds of getting an at-large bid are basically zero at this point.

SEC Tournament Printable Bracket (Thursday-Sunday)

I think Alabama will be a nice test case for the idea the committee is conference color blind. 12-4 in the SEC sounds great, and this team has clearly rebounded from a terrible start to the season. But four quality wins (Kentucky, Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss) against ten losses is usually a recipe for the NIT. (Consider that a team like Nebraska has seven quality wins on the year has just eleven losses.)

I am starting to think an SEC quarterfinal game between Georgia and Alabama might be an elimination game. Georgia’s overall profile (5 top 100 wins) is not quite the profile of an NCAA tournament lock either.

Pac-10 Tournament Printable Bracket (Wednesday-Saturday)

Arizona’s profile may not look that impressive (two top 50 wins), but that is being deflated by the fact that teams like USC, Cal, and Washington St. are not in the top 50. But Arizona is definitely a step above the rest, as are UCLA and Washington.  The Pac-10 is a true round robin, and the top teams get full credit for that. But what do we make of USC? The team beat Arizona, UCLA, Washington, Tennessee, and Texas this year. And that makes them a much more interesting case than you might think. What about all those head-scratching losses to Bradley, TCU, and the Oregon schools? Well, Tennessee had those head-scratching losses too, and USC beat Tennessee. I’m not even sure USC will beat California in the Pac-10 quarters, but if they can win that game, I won’t be surprised to see them on a lot of “last four out” lists.

MWC Tournament Printable Bracket (Wednesday-Saturday)

UNLV beat Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, and Colorado St., so I think they are in the field. But Colorado St.’s only elite win is UNLV and that probably is not enough.

A10 Tournament Printable Bracket (Tuesday, Friday-Sunday)

I have seen Richmond in a lot of projected fields. But this seems to be putting a lot of weight on the win over Purdue if you ask me. Doesn’t Nebraska have a great win over Texas? Doesn’t USC have a great win over Texas? Doesn’t Virginia Tech have a great win over Duke? One win is not everything.

Yes, winning 13 games in the A10 is impressive. But the A10 did not have a dominant non-conference performance year this year. If VCU upends Old Dominion on Monday, I actually think the CAA has a slightly better chance to get three bids, based on ODU’s dominance over the A10, and ODU’s victory over Richmond earlier this year.

CUSA Tournament Printable Bracket (Wednesday-Saturday)

No conference confuses me more than CUSA. UAB has a solid at-large profile, but with so many top 100 teams, this league screams “multi-bid” league. But who gets the other bid? Memphis has the highest volume of top 100 wins. But Memphis also has a worse conference record than UTEP and Tulsa. But the conference schedule was not balanced, so maybe that was not a fair metric. This is definitely a case where getting to the conference tournament final could mean a lot.

WAC Tournament Printable Bracket (Wednesday-Saturday)

There is only one reason to watch the WAC tournament, to see if Utah St. will lose. And I am not even convinced that if Utah St. loses that they are guaranteed an NCAA spot. (Somehow the two RPI top 100 wins do not sway me.) But the three total losses mean something. And thanks to a head-to-head win at St. Mary’s, at least one bubble team will be nervous.

Utah St. has been slotted into the WAC semifinals, so there is no need to pay attention until Friday.

Utah St. joins the short list of teams I mentioned last week from smaller conferences that have a shot to make the NCAA field as an at-large. As I discussed last week, I think George Mason, Old Dominion, Butler, Gonzaga, and St. Mary’s have a plausible shot at an at-large bid. But as some at-large candidates in the major conferences improved their standing this weekend, I am starting to doubt that the WCC loser will make it.

VCU faces Old Dominion in the CAA final on Monday, Gonzaga faces St. Mary’s in the WCC final on Monday, and Butler faces Milwaukee in the Horizon league final on Tuesday.

Again, who says Joe Lunardi is right? Look at the above list of teams and choose 50 to make the field. (13 as automatic bids and 37 at-large qualifiers.) Make your own bracket picks.

Dance Card 

Four teams punched their NCAA tickets this weekend and every outcome was at least somewhat predictable:

Belmont – In the A-Sun title game, the Margin-of-Victory darlings won by 41 points.

Morehead St. – In the OVC title game, the team with the NCAA career rebounding leader, Kenneth Faried, watched Faried score 24 points and grab 15 boards.

UNC Asheville – In the Big South title game, the team that upset 28-5 Coastal Carolina earlier this year on a steal and shot at the buzzer, upset Coastal Carolina again.

Indiana St. – And in the MVC, where the top teams struggled to win key non-conference games this year, both Wichita St. and Missouri St. failed to win the key games again.  Both fell to Indiana St. sending Larry Bird’s alma mater back to the field of 68 for the first time in a decade.

That leaves 27 automatic bids to dole out in the next week, 26 in conference tournaments.

The one exception is the Ivy league which does not hold a conference tournament. The Ivy league automatic bid will be determined by the regular season title. If Princeton loses to Penn on Tuesday, Harvard will win the regular season title and automatic bid. But if Princeton beats Penn on Tuesday, it will force a one game playoff between Harvard and Princeton on Friday or Saturday at a neutral site.

Ending with a win

One team that will not have a chance to make the NCAA tournament field is Fordham in the A10. Because the A10 tournament only invites 12 teams, 14^th place Fordham’s season is over. But in odd fashion, Fordham won its first A10 game of the year in the season finale. This gives Fordham an odd distinction. While almost every team in the country will end its season with a tournament loss in the next few weeks, Fordham gets to end their season with a victory.

A Note on Tiebreakers

I am not going to mention every tiebreaker that led to the printable conference tournament brackets listed above, but I do want to spend a moment on how convoluted some of these procedures can be. I spent about 15 minutes on Friday trying to figure out what would happen if 10-7 West Virginia, 10-7 Georgetown, 9-8 Villanova, 9-8 Marquette, and 9-8 Connecticut ended up in a 5-way tie at 10-8 in the Big East standings. Where would the teams be seeded in the Big East tournament? Who would get the first day bye? I consulted the Big East tiebreakers and determined that in the hypothetical situation, the five teams would make up a “mini-conference.” 

In the mini-conference, Connecticut was 3-2, Marquette 2-3, and everyone else 2-2. That meant I needed to create another mini-conference with West Virginia, Georgetown, and Villanova. But these teams were all 1-1 against each other. Thus it came down to how these three teams did against Pittsburgh. In the hypothetical, the teams would be 1-1 and 0-1 and 0-2 against Pittsburgh. But under the complex rules, this could not be the tiebreaker. That was because 1-1 was considered to be dominant over 0-2, but 1-1 was not dominant over 0-1. And 0-1 was not dominant over 0-2, so 0-2 was not eliminated. So we would have to move to the team’s records against Notre Dame. At that point, I decided the Big East tiebreakers were way too complicated.

Part of the joy of Saturday was trying to see if this tiebreaker or other crazy tiebreakers would come to fruition. Starting Saturday at noon, a West Virginia loss would potentially put West Virginia in that multi-way tie. And late in the game against Louisville, West Virginia trailed. But West Virginia’s Casey Mitchell hit a pair of three pointers to tie the game at 70. Then with Louisville holding the ball in a no-lose situation (take the final shot or go to OT), Preston Knowles missed the shot and then proceeded to foul West Virginia’s Truck Bryant. Bryant calmly sank a pair of free throws in the miracle come from behind win.

Shortly thereafter, Connecticut knew that a win could put them in a multi-way tie and likely earn a first round Big East tournament bye. But in the second half, UConn trailed Notre Dame by eight with 8 minutes left. That’s when Notre Dame’s Ben Hansbrough threw his shoulder into a Connecticut defender and fouled out of the game. Connecticut proceeded to go on a 13-0 run and take the lead. But after a few empty possessions, Notre Dame took the lead back. And then Connecticut missed several chances to win or tie the game. First Kemba Walker missed a jumper. Then Charles Okwandu missed the put back. Then, after a pair of missed Notre Dame free throws, Kemba Walker missed another three pointer. Then with time running down, Kemba Walker passed the ball to Donnell Beverly who was wide open in the corner. Beverly dropped the ball and missed a chance at a game-tying three pointer.

And with Villanova and Marquette also losing, the truly crazy scenarios were averted. West Virginia avoided an 8^th loss, Georgetown was the only team with an 8^th loss, and Connecticut won a mini-conference with Villanova and Marquette by virtue of a better head-to-head record, 2-1 to 1-1 to 1-2.

Senior Day

Every team has senior day stories.

- I appreciate that a team like North Carolina can play their biggest rivals on the biggest stage and still be willing to start three senior walk-ons.

- I appreciate the Big Ten network giving us extended coverage of senior day, including the entire post-game ceremony for Illinois. (This is why conference only TV networks are great.)

- I appreciate Chris Meriwether, the Vanderbilt senior whose Mom passed away not too long ago, entering the loss to Florida in the final minute and scoring his first basket of the season.

- And I love watching a player like Pittsbugh senior Nick Rivers hope for his 20 seconds in the sun. While Jamie Dixon worriedly tried to ensure that Pittsburgh won the Big East regular season title, who could not feel for the former team assistant turned walk-on, told to sit back down by a nervous Dixon? And who could not cheer when the senior finally took the court?

Every one of these moments is special. But the highlight for me was Seton Hall’s senior day. Leading by a comfortable margin with 20 seconds left, Seton Hall coach Kevin Willard realized he could not call time out. But he needed to get Jeremy Hazell out of the game to a standing ovation. So he yelled at one of his players to intentionally throw the ball out of bounds. And so the Seton Hall player did just that. But he threw the ball out of bounds and hit a 10-year-old kid in the head! You just cannot make this stuff up.

The moment he let the ball go, the Seton Hall player knew it was going to hit the kid, and he immediately ran over and apologized. And after the kid shrugged and smiled and waived it off, the fans gave Jeremy Hazell his standing ovation.

The True Meaning of Rivalry

Star players can create rivalries. (See Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.) And border states can create rivalries. (See the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears.) But a rivalry really only gets pushed to that next level when something gets taken away.

Illinois and Indiana was a solid basketball rivalry with plenty of tradition. But when Eric Gordon changed his commitment from Illinois to Indiana, the rivalry stepped up to another level. Indiana took something from Illinois, and the intensity was magnified.

Saturday night’s Duke versus North Carolina game was not an epic down-to-the-wire masterpiece. Mason Plumlee was a non-factor and fouled out. Kyle Singler repeated this year’s formula of being quiet for long stretches. Kendall Marshall reminded us why he should have been starting in November. And North Carolina won easily. The analysis can go on and on. Duke was so concerned with Tyler Zeller inside that they gave up open perimeter looks. Then Duke tried to take away the perimeter shots and gave up far too many uncontested drives to the basket. But this game was not about who executed and who failed. This game was about enhancing the rivalry.

All season long, Duke fans assumed the ACC regular season title was theirs for the taking. Duke was the defending national champ. Duke was the consensus preseason favorite to win the ACC. North Carolina struggled in the non-conference schedule. North Carolina lost to Georgia Tech. For the last three to four months, it has been increasingly evident that this year’s regular season title belonged to Duke.

But something happened in the last month. Duke fell to Virginia Tech. Harrison Barnes hit a late three pointer to beat Florida St. And suddenly, without much warning or anticipation, North Carolina ripped the ACC regular season title away from their bitter rivals.

And in the process, North Carolina may have ripped a No. 1 seed away from Duke too. The ACC is down this year, but for months Duke fans have been counting on the fact that an ACC regular season and ACC tournament title would still ensure a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. But now Duke does not hold the regular season title. And even with BYU’s injury to forward Brandon Davies, and the recent collapse by Texas, there is no guarantee that Duke will get a No. 1 seed.

Duke had something in the palm of their hand, and North Carolina just took it away. The game may not have been great, but the intensity of the rivalry is always renewed.