RealGM Analysis
If you’ve never cared about a team, you might not understand, but sometimes writing is cathartic:
“Well, as I wrote over at SB Nation Pittsburgh, there's not much any point in breaking this game down. For one, words can't adequately describe this loss. For another, it simply doesn't matter. Look, if you feel bad for anyone, don't feel bad for yourself for the love of God. Don't feel like you've somehow been cheated out of a championship that you may have considered your given right. Feel bad for Wanamaker. For McGhee. For Gil. They put everything they had into this game and all played pretty well. And for that, they're still headed home. And please, if you're a Pitt fan blaming the refs for this one, you've got issues. There's nothing the ref can do when Nas practically ate Matt Howard's arm for lunch on that final foul.”
“This is one of the hardest articles I have ever had to write for this site. It is difficult because I honestly believed, until last night, that we were going to win the National Championship. When everything was perfect this looked like it was going to be the year. When Rob went down, I still believed. Then we have last night's loss, which was painful because we got beat because of an appalling lack of defense. It is also painful because we were exactly what our detractors thought we were. We were historical Purdue, an entity that always comes up short at a chance for greatness. Others mock us, but that only strengthens our resolve. We hear "Five Banners" "No banners" and the like, but we remain faithful. We remain faithful because of years with expectations like this one, where we believe that something good may finally happen. Then things like last night happen, where two of the greatest players in our history leave with a Big Ten Tournament title, a Big Ten regular season championship, and little else. They never even reached an Elite 8, much less a Final Four. All we can do is move on. JJ and E`Twaun are gone now.“
Syracuse’s Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician
“I always feared the day that Syracuse Basketball players would be featured prominently on truTV. Turns out my fears were for good reason, though under different circumstances than initially-thought. The season ends, ironically, with Syracuse fans and players feeling as though there is unfinished business left on the court. I suppose the good news is they can just re-use 2010-2011's posters and just put Rakeem Christmas' face on Rick Jackson's to keep it fresh.”
“The only thing I could think about once the "my God, that happened" haze wore off in the wake of Thursday's loss was the end of Unforgiven, the ultimate anti-Western film featuring the ultimate anti-hero. The movie, which won best picture in 1992, centers around Bill Munny, a former murderer of women and children who has attempted to change his ways, but ultimately finds himself killing again. The character who would be the "hero" in any "normal" narrative is Little Bill Daggett, a man of the law who speaks well and does right. In the film's climatic scene, Munny's gun misfires, providing Daggett the divine break he believes shines on those who do right. Still, Munny manages to gain the upper-hand and finds a wounded Daggett lying beneath his gun, leading to this exchange:
Little Bill Daggett: I don't deserve this... to die like this. I was building a house.
Will Munny: Deserve's got nothin' to do with it.
The most satisfying Louisville basketball season I've ever followed is over in the most unsatisfying fashion imaginable. That's the reality we're faced with, and, for lack of a better term, it sucks.”
“These last five halves of basketball were not the joyous ride we experienced most of the season. It was like a switch flipped at halftime of the Louisville game, and every possession after that was less enjoyable than all of those prior. It shouldn't ruin how much fun this season was until that point, from the Old Spice Classic victory up through the Cincinnati evisceration at Madison Square Garden, but it sort of does.“
Kansas St.’s Bring on the Cats
“It is said that before the young men of Sparta went to battle, they were told by their mothers, "Ḕ tā̀n ḕ epì tâs" which translates literally to "With it, or on it." In ancient Greece, a man could not leave the field of battle without tossing aside his heavy shield. Thus, losing your shield meant you had deserted your fellow soldiers, and a man was only supposed to return from battle either "with his shield" (meaning he and his men won the battle) or "on it", in which case he had died gloriously in the fight. I couldn't help but be reminded of this saying last night, as I watched a broken young man trudge wearily from his own field of battle. He had given every portion of himself to that battle, and in doing so, brought credit to both himself and his alma mater.”
“1) DENIAL. "This isn't happening. We can't possibly blow another double-digit lead. We can still make this happen. We're not going out like this again. I don't care what Obama picked. It's gonna be different this year."
2) ANGER. "HOW CAN THEY STOP THE GAME FOR FIVE MINUTES!?!" "HOW CAN HE MISS TWO DUNKS IN A ROW?!?!" "WHAT THE HELL FORMATION IS THAT FOR THE LAST PLAY!?!?!?"
“And like a broken window with glass strewn about the Hilltop, an ill wind blows into this off-season, as Thompson and his staff must pick up the pieces from a team losing a lot of leadership and returning a lot less than many would think. For as poorly as the senior class played Friday night in Chicago, they represented 54% of the offense for this team and the only institutional memory of a winning team in post-season play. With a bench as unproductive as what contributed in 2010-11 with the likes of Henry Sims, Jerrelle Benimon, Vee Sanford, Markel Starks and Moses Ayegba (who combined for just 32 points over their final seven games), a first round NCAA game may not seem so bad a year from now.”
But even if your team is done, remember the good times. I particularly enjoyed that Luke Winn highlighted the George Mason band this week. (Scroll to the end.) I heard them perform Kanye West’s Power in Charleston in November and I’ll always remember those wistful days in November when the season was fresh.
All these teams had good moments, but let’s be honest. The Sweet Sixteen is a lot more fun if your team is playing. Here are some quick previews:
- I was nervous about Kentucky losing in the first round, but I think they match up very well with Ohio St. Ohio St.’s strength is their ability to knock down open threes and Kentucky has plenty of length on the perimeter. And if William Buford and David Lighty try to drive, Kentucky has plenty of quickness on the perimeter as well. Plus Kentucky’s weaknesses are not things that Ohio St. can really expose. Kentucky struggles with forcing turnovers, but Ohio St. never turns the ball over regardless of opponent. Terrence Jones struggles with FT shooting at times, but Ohio St. almost never fouls. And neither team has a deep bench. No matter what the number say, this game seems like a coin flip to me.
- Arizona’s biggest strength is defending the three-point shot. This may seem a little counter-intuitive. Isn’t Derrick Williams a great shot-blocker inside? The answer is actually no. Despite having won multiple games this year with late blocks, Williams’ block rate is actually pretty pedestrian. And Arizona simply does not have a lot of other size inside. The key for Duke will be to not settle for guarded threes. Assuming the Blue Devils can pass the ball to the Plumlees in good scoring position, and assuming Nolan Smith and Kyrie Irving can drive to the basket, that should be how Duke wins the game.
- I’ve mentioned before that people tend to only like one piece of trivia about lower seeds in the tournament. The piece of trivia about Richmond seems to be that point guard Kevin Anderson is very good. But what about forward Justin Harper? He has the highest efficiency rating on the team, and he is the only quality rebounder on Richmond. And that is going to be the key to staying in the game with Kansas. Can Harper hold his own against the Morris twins? Somehow I fear he picks up his second foul 10 minutes into the first half and the blowout begins.
- Can Butler beat Wisconsin? Of course they can. Wisconsin is going to shorten the game, and all Butler needs to do is put together a string of nice possessions and they can pull off the victory. But over the long-haul, I am not convinced this is a good match-up for Butler. Butler is phenomenal at defensive rebounding, but offensive rebounding is not crucial to Wisconsin’s offense. Furthermore, Butler tends to commit a number of stupid fouls. And Wisconsin is the best free throw shooting team in the nation. If Wisconsin can get Butler to reach unnecessarily, that could be the difference in the game.
- As I pointed out on Selection Sunday, Connecticut has to get to the free throw line to be a dominant team. And on paper, San Diego St. is a bad match-up for them. San Diego St. plays the second best defense in the field, and they do it without fouling. But I’m not sure San Diego St. has played many guards that can drive to the basket the way UConn’s guards can. San Diego St. did play Jimmer Fredette, but he had three solid games against them. The other key is obviously offensive rebounding. Defensive rebounding has been a weakness for UConn all year, and offensive rebounding is how San Diego St. scores. If UConn’s Alex Oriakhi grabs 20 boards in this game, UConn probably wins easily. But Oriakhi is UConn’s only quality defensive rebounder (other than oddly enough Kemba Walker). So if Oriakhi gets in foul trouble, San Diego St. might be able to win this one on the glass.
- Earlier this year, I heard this line about Florida guards Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker. “Their shots keep both teams in the game.” They make a lot of big shots, but they also take enough tough shots, that their opponent can stay within striking distance. And Boynton and Walker absolutely cannot get caught up in making this a shooting contest with Jimmer Fredette and Jackson Emery. The Gators need to be patient, find their big men inside, and win the offensive rebounding battle. If they do those things, Florida is probably the better team right now. On the other hand, BYU has solved its defensive swoon in the NCAA tournament, and there seems to be a lot of emotion behind this team. I will be shocked if BYU does not have a significant home court advantage, even in New Orleans. And it has been shown that home court advantage can swing referees decisions. I could very well see BYU riding that wave of emotion to the Elite Eight.
- If you look at the ten or so elite teams left in the NCAA field, they all have one offensive weakness. They don’t get to the free throw line all that often. But maybe this is not a weakness at all. Maybe this means that teams that depend on drawing fouls (like Xavier, Texas A&M, and Notre Dame) have all gone home. In other words, in order to have a consistently elite offense, you have to depend on making shots, not on drawing fouls. And while Marquette has two very impressive wins in this tournament, they have to get to the line to have a chance. I’m not sure that will happen against an athletic North Carolina team that almost never fouls.
- With the exception of Ohio St., none of the elite teams left in the tournament are particularly adept at forcing turnovers. I think the message here is that elite teams play strong, straight-up defense. They do not gamble very often. But VCU is a completely different story. They use an up-tempo pressing defense that can rattle teams. And on paper, Florida St. is the perfect opponent. That’s because Florida St.’s offense is one of the worst in the country at hanging onto the ball. The numbers suggest that VCU should have a field day harassing the Florida St. guards. And they probably have to do that to have a chance. Because Florida St.’s half-court defense is so good, VCU is going to need some fast-break opportunities to have any chance to win this game.
