Early Games

The early games were both blowouts so I have only two comments.

- Greg Anthony called Marquette’s first half play vs North Carolina “as bad as a team can play. Six of 31 from the field, 12 turnovers, 0 assists. It was that ugly and it did not get any better to start the second half.

- During the other game, the announcers were reflecting on when Al McGuire’s Marquette team defeated North Carolina. Marv Albert, “I remember working with Al McGuire during his broadcasting days. He hated the telestrator because he did not like technology. So he would always kick it and break it and tell the production crew it wasn’t working.”

Luckily, the late games provided a little more substance:

VCU vs FSU

Near halftime, VCU was shooting twice the percentage of Florida St., but had only a four-point lead. That seemed unsustainable. Florida St. had 14 offensive rebounds in the first half, and was also forcing a good number of turnovers. It seemed like at some point those extra possessions would allow Florida St. to pull ahead. But VCU keeps doing the unexpected. Despite playing against the best defensive team in the nation, and a Florida St. team that completely shut down Notre Dame at the three point line, VCU was somehow finding open looks on the perimeter. VCU hit 12 threes against Florida St, the most three point shots allowed by FSU all year.

But with Florida St. down three in the final seconds, Chris Singleton hit a huge three to tie the game and send it into overtime. Singleton was injured late in the season, and some questioned whether he would return for the NCAA tournament. But after playing limited minutes in the first two tournament games, Singleton hit one of the biggest shots of Florida St.’s season.

And then in OT, we had an ending that seemed like de-ja-vu, all over again. The ending was almost a complete replay of the Florida St. vs Virginia Tech game in the ACC tournament. In the ACC tournament game, Florida St. led by one in the final seconds, but Virginia Tech scored with just five seconds left to take the lead. Then Florida St.’s Derwin Kitchen took the ball the length of the floor, drove into the right corner, and hit a jumper. But his shot was waived off as after the buzzer. In Friday Night’s game, again Florida St. held a one point lead in the final seconds, and again VCU scored with just 7 seconds left. Derwin Kitchen again took the ball the length of the floor and into the right corner, but this time instead of shooting, he made a foolish pass as time expired. For the second time, Florida St.’s hopes were dashed in the final seconds by a team from the state of Virginia.

Tom Izzo said it well. “I think these might have been the two hardest working teams in the whole tournament.” But rather than watch FSU and VCU, most of the country was watching the main event:

Kentucky vs Ohio St.

The analysis from this game was pretty simple and you can find it everywhere. Kentucky decided to deny the three-point shot, and hoped Josh Harrelson could contain Jared Sullinger in the post. The plan wasn’t to shut down Sullinger, but Kentucky hoped that by shutting down the other players, Sullinger could not win the game single-handedly.

But things started off poorly for Kentucky. Ohio St. had Dallas Lauderdale in to start the game (as always) and that meant Harrelson was guarding Lauderdale. And in less than right minutes, Terrence Jones had picked up two fouls. And even when Lauderdale exited the game and Harrelson switched over to cover Sullinger, Sullinger seemed to be on a mission to foul out Kentucky’s whole team. At halftime, five of the seven players in Kentucky’s rotation had two fouls.

But the denial on the perimeter was working. In the first half Ohio St. attempted just six shots from three point range. A team that had been crushing teams all season by knocking down threes, could not even find an open look. And Harrelson was not only holding his own by forcing Sullinger to take some tough shots, he was also scoring. Harrelson started the game 6-for-6 from the field.

Then in the second half, Kentucky started taking over with blocked shots. On numerous occasions Aaron Craft tried to take the ball inside, only to see it swatted back out. And because the perimeter threes were not there, Ohio St. had two long scoring droughts from the field.  With 1 minute left in the game, Ohio St. had a classic bad possession. They tried to force the ball to Sullinger in the low block, and his shot hit the side of the backboard.

Only when down three points in the final seconds did Thad Matta draw up a play that got his team a three point try. And John Diebler calmly sank the game-tying shot. But Brandon Knight took the ball down to the other end and hit the game-winner.

Much like with Kansas last year, this early tournament loss does not mean that Ohio St. did not have a great season. But the one-and-done tournament is fickle. Kentucky barely beat Princeton last Thursday, but they had enough to beat the #1 ranked team in the nation. And on Thursday an Arizona team that barely won its first two tournament games crushed Duke. As long as you advance, you always have a chance to win the next game. 

Here are the updated expectations:

Expected Wins in Field of 64

If you are wondering what the various columns mean click here. Kentucky substantially improved their expectations with their “own” win. But “other games” were not favorable for Kentucky because Marquette did not upset North Carolina. Kansas and North Carolina both had very impressive “performances” on Friday, which makes the rest of the field look relatively weaker