I recently provided the usual frustrated view of college basketball fans, that the NBA is drafting on potential and not performance. That view is based on the fact that players like Kyrie Irving are rated much higher than players like Kemba Walker. But is it true? Does the NBA ignore college performance? Let’s look at the college numbers of the first round picks from the 2010 NBA Draft:

With his size, quickness, and ability to distribute, Turner was the perfect college basketball player. And he maintained a high ORtg despite using a ridiculous 35% of Ohio St.’s possessions. John Wall splashed onto the college basketball scene with some breakout performances, but he was not quite the all-around player Turner was in college.

Scouts – Wall
College Stats – Turner
College Opinion – Mixed

In the NBA, Wall has a much higher assist rate. And while Turner rarely shoots, Wall continues to dominate with the ball in his hand. Wall posted a similar true shooting percentage numbers despite using substantially more possessions.

Early Winner – Scouts

In college, DeMarcus Cousins was a man among boys, posting ridiculous offensive rebounding numbers, taking the most shots on a team with five first round picks, and scoring at an amazingly efficient rate. Greg Monroe was a key passer in the Georgetown offense, but many fans questioning why the high school scouts had given him a top-five talent rating. Then the draft interviews hit and all the scouts said Cousins was not a hard worker.

Scouts – Monroe
College Stats – Cousins
College Opinion – Cousins

In the NBA, Monroe has been the better player so far, and Cousins' offensive rebounding numbers have fallen off substantially.

Early Winner – Scouts

As a sophomore, Patrick Patterson was one of the most feared players in the country. But Patterson gave up some shots as a junior in order to allow Kentucky to become a better team. NBA scouts said Patterson had reached his potential and was not going to get any better. Meanwhile Al-Farouq Aminu was an aggressive, but inconsistent shooter on a disappointing Wake Forest team.

Scouts – Aminu
College Stats – Mixed (Patterson had a high ORtg, but low % of possessions)
College Opinion – Patterson

In the NBA, Aminu’s inability to shoot, and lack of strength inside have made him into a long-term project. Meanwhile Patterson has been a polished role player for the Houston Rockets. Maybe someday Aminu will be the better player, but not yet.

Early Winner – College Opinion

Eric Bledsoe was a gutty team player who gave up his opportunity to play point guard for Kentucky for the good of the team. Avery Bradley was a lead guard on a Texas team that had a ton of talent, but seemed to quit on the season. Because of his size, Bradley projected as an NBA point guard, but what most scouts loved was his athleticism and ability to defend. Bledsoe was seen as a fine college player, but not an elite athlete like John Wall.

Scouts – Bradley
College Stats – Neither (nearly the worst efficiency ratings in the draft)
College Opinion – Bledsoe

College fans were infatuated with this Kentucky team, and NBA teams fell for it, drafting five Kentucky players in the first round. But while Bledsoe’s college numbers suggest he was a reach, he’s been much better in the NBA because he finally gets to be the point guard. He’s actually posted a similar assist rate to John Wall in the NBA, but with a substantially higher turnover rate. Bradley, on the other hand, could not find a role on a veteran Celtics team.

Early Winner – College Opinion

With the exception of Daniel Orton, you know what you see at the end of the first round? A large number of high volume shooters from lower profile college teams. Virtually all of these guys were college fan favorites, but the scouts were not big on any of them because of their size, or overall athleticism. 

Scouts – None of the above
College Stats – Everyone listed (but Orton)
College Fans – Everyone listed

Only Trevor Booker and Jordan Crawford did much of anything in the NBA this year, and both of those players lucked into playing time on very bad teams.

Early Winner – Scouts

It is probably way too early to be evaluating the 2010 draft, but the main point of this article should be clear. Just because the NBA scouts ignore the vast majority of what happens in the college season, that does not mean they are wrong. Like Kansas center Cole Aldrich making a third trip to the NBA Developmental league, sometimes it does not matter how many games you won, or how efficiently you played in college. Sometimes only the scouts can tell if a player has the strength and quickness to make it at the next level.