RealGM Analysis
The biggest European Championship in history is finally here. For the first time, the 24 strongest national teams of Europe will fight for medals and tickets to the London 2012 Olympics on the land where basketball is praised more than football in Texas - Lithuania.
The games will take place in six cities -- Panevezys, Siauliai, Alytus, Klaipeda, Vilnius, Kaunas -- from August 31st to September 18th. Only three of six teams from each group will advance to the second round.
RealGM, which will provide our readers latest news directly from Lithuania, presents the key elements of EuroBasket 2011, our predictions and names of players you should keep an eye on.
Group A
Having three possible Final Four participants in the same group, Spain, Lithuania and 2010 FIBA Worlds finalist Turke, it’s fair enough to say Group A is the strongest one in EuroBasket.
Undoubtedly, Spain, winner of EuroBasket 2009, is the main favorite to win the title once again. Sergio Scariolo has four NBA starters and a bunch of Euroleague stars on his roster. Well-balanced and experienced but at the same time fast, the Spainish national team back home is called “Dream Team” for a reason.
Despite the absence of Fran Vazquez, the Gasol brothers, Felipe Reyes and “the newest Spaniard” Serge Ibaka, who was awarded Spanish citizenship this summer, will form the strongest frontcourt of all teams. Don’t forget to add Euroleague MVP candidates Juan Carlos Navarro and Fernando San Emeterio, Toronto Raptors starting point guard Jose Calderon, Dallas Mavericks newcomer Rudy Fernandez and young star Ricky Rubio. It’s obvious with a team like this, anything but winning gold is a failure for Spaniards.
Another must-watch Group A team is Lithuania, which will likely be the hardest one to predict. The hosts faced serious roster changes this summer as they have manage to play without their injured leader Linas Kleiza, who was the key player of bronze-winning team in the 2010 FIBA Worlds. But experienced veterans like Sarunas Jasikevicius and Darius Songaila are back. More intriguingly, newcomer Jonas Valanciunas was the leading scorer and rebounder in friendly games, averaging 12.3 points and 7.3 rebounds per game in only 19 minutes.
The preparation period of EuroBasket was very tough for Lithuanians as they went 3-5 in their friendlies and usually grabbed wins against teams like Czech Republic or Latvia. However, Lithuania is the team that has defeated Spain this summer and that win in Kaunas shows they can beat anybody on their home soil.
Turkey and Great Britain are teams that didn’t show their potential in preparation, but have strong enough squads to surprise basketball fans. While it’s still a mystery how the 2010 FIBA Worlds finalist Turkish national team managed to lose to Greece in a game they scored only 38 points, Hedo Turkoglu, Ersan Ilyasova and Enes Kanter are enough talented to carry this team all the way to the final four.
Great Britain also have some big names like their biggest star Luol Deng of Chicago Bulls, who started to practice with the team with only 11 days left untill Eurobasket, or Euroleague star Joel Freeland. Even without Ben Gordon and Pops Mensah-Bonsu, who won’t help Great Britain in EuroBasket, and with worst-case scenario for Turkey and Lithuania, this team could mix up the things in group A.
Poland and last-minute qualifier Portugal will likely fight for the last positions. Poland would have some potention with all their best players on the roster but Marcin Gortat stayed in the U.S. due to insurance problems, while their other star, Maciej Lampe took some rest this summer.
Players to watch:
Jose Calderon (Spain) - Toronto Raptors
Rudy Fernandez (Spain) - Dallas Mavericks
Marc Gasol (Spain) - Mephis Grizzlies
Pau Gasol (Spain) - Los Angeles Lakers
Serge Ibaka (Spain) - Oklahoma City Thunder
Juan Carlos Navarro (Spain) - FC Barcelona Regal (Spain)
Ricky Rubio (Spain) - Minnesota Timberwolves
Jonas Valanciunas (Lithuania) - Lietuvos Rytas (Lithuania)
Ersan Ilyasova (Turkey) - Anadolu Efes (Turkey)
Enes Kanter (Turkey) - Utah Jazz
Hedo Turkoglu (Turkey) - Orlando Magic
Luol Deng (Great Britain) - Chicago Bulls
Projected standings
1. Spain
2. Lithuania
3. Turkey
4. Great Britain
5. Poland
6. Portugal
Group B
It has been six years since France national team won their last medal in international competition and now with four NBA starters on their roster, France will definitely have a shot at winning EuroBasket 2011. Tony Parker and Joakim Noah will be one of strongest point guard-center combinations on the championship, which was already tested in friendly games. Despite four NBA players that won't be available for various reasons (Mickael Pietrus, Ronny Turiaf, Ian Mahinmi and Rodrigue Beaubois), France won 90% of their friendly games (mostly 24 EuroBasket teams) and lost only once against Spain.
Serbia, Germany and Italy will also be in the mix for winning the group.
The Serbian national team, which was one of the youngest teams in EuroBasket 2009 and still managed to go all the way to the final back, will be more mature this year. As almost every other team in the European championship, Serbia didn’t avoid injury bug, but their biggest stars, teammates in CSKA Moscow -- Milos Teodosic and Nenad Krstic -- will be in Lithuania and it will be really interesting to see Teodosic-Krstic playing against Parker-Noah on the last day of group matches.
Germany and Italy, which don’t have such a strong basketball schools system as Serbia does, are in different situation and basically pin hopes on their NBA stars. With Dirk Nowitzki and Chris Kaman, Germany already demonstrated in 2005 that a one-man team can make it all the to finals. Now the Germans have two world-class players on their rosters so getting ticket to London Olympics isn't beyond the realm of possibilities.
I will not say anything new in declaring Italian basketball in trouble. They missed EuroBasket 2009 and the 2010 FIBA Worlds, and they shouldn’t participate in this year’s European Championships, but thanks to a FIBA decision regarding the enlargement of number of tournament teams, the team coached by Simone Pianigiani will be in Lithuania. Moreover, it seems that Italy wants to end this nightmare, shake things in EuroBasket and finally get back on basketball map. Andrea Bargnani, Danilo Gallinari and Marco Belinelli led Italy to a 9-2 record in preparation and they won twice against favorite of Group C, Greece. No doubt, EuroBasket will be a new story, but differently from previous years, Italy at least has a shot.
Israel and Latvia won’t have their respective stars -- Omri Casspi and Andrea Bargnani -- and both national teams aren’t strong enough to compete with top class teams like France. Surprisingly, Israel and Latvia ended their preparation with wins against Russia and Great Britain respectively, but that probably will be their brightest memories of this summer.
Players to watch:
Tony Parker (France) - San Antonio Spurs
Nicolas Batum (France) - Portland Trail Blazers
Joakim Noah (France) - Chicago Bulls
Milos Teodosic (Serbia) - CSKA Moscow (Russia)
Nenad Krstic (Serbia) - CSKA Moscow (Russia)
Dirk Nowitzki (Germany) - Dallas Mavericks
Chris Kaman (Germany) - Los Angeles Clippers
Andrea Bargnani (Italy) - Toronto Raptors
Danilo Gallinari (Italy) - Denver Nuggets
Projected standings
1. France
2. Serbia
3. Germany
4. Italy
5. Israel
6. Latvia
Group C and D
The last two groups of EuroBasket will receive as much attention as Group A or B, as none of those 12 teams are expected to make it to Final Four. However, that doesn’t mean there aren’t teams in Group C and D that could surprise Europe by eliminating one of favorite in quarterfinals.
Even though Greece could form a new starting five from the names who won’t play in EuroBasket 2011, they remain the strongest team in Group C. Thanks to the EuroBasket draw, the Greeks are in an easy group and posibly only the Croatians, even without Roko Ukic, are strong enough to compete for first place there.
In Group D, all spotlight should be on Russia and Slovenia. Both national teams demonstrated great basketball during the preparation period and the other four teams talent wise are far away from these two.
Talking about two more teams that could make it to the secound round, there are six posible candidates to do that. Montenegro, which will have Nikola Pekovic, Nikola Vucevic and Milko Bjelica in their frontcourt, Bosnia and Herzegovia with scoring machine Mirza Teletovic and F.Y.R. of Macedonia with naturalized American and Italian MVP Bo McCalebb will likely fight for the third place in Group C, while last-minute qualified Finland will likely stay out of second round margin. In Group D, national teams from Ukraine, Georgia and Belgium, which could be called “developing basketball countries” have a chance not only be a part of EuroBasket, but also fight for a place in the second round.
Players to watch:
Kostas Koufos (Greece) - Utah Jazz
Ioannis Bourousis (Greece) - Emporio Armani Milan (Italy)
Bo McCalebb (FYR of Macedonia) - Montepaschi Siena (Italy)
Nikola Pekovic (Montenegro) - Minnesota Timberwolves
Nikola Vucevic (Montenegro) - Philadelphia 76ers
Zaza Pachulia (Georgia) - Atlanta Hawks
Goran Dragic (Slovenia) - Houston Rockets
Erazem Lorbek (Slovenia) - FC Barcelona Regal (Spain)
Andrei Kirilenko (Russia) - Utah Jazz
Kyrylo Fesenko (Ukraine) - Utah Jazz
Projected standings
Group C:
1. Greece
2. Croatia
3. Montenegro
4. Bosnia and Herzegovina
5. F.Y.R. of Macedonia
6. Finland
Group D:
1. Russia
2. Slovenia
3. Ukraine
4. Georgia
5. Belgium
6. Bulgaria
