Let’s invent a new term called “Relative Value.” Relative Value is the possession-weighted ORtg of returning players divided by the possession-weighted ORtg for last year’s entire roster.

As an example of a team with a good Relative Value, we have the Oregon Ducks. Oregon returns only 46% of its possession from last season, but the Ducks just happen to return the exact right players. E.J. Singler and Garrett Sim (a pair of three point gunners) were Oregon’s two most efficient players last year, and both are back. If you were going to pick two starters to return, Singler and Sim would have been great choices. (Joevan Catron would have been the other natural choice, but he has departed.)

Compare that to the USC Trojans. USC loses its three most efficient rotation players in Nikola Vucevic, Alex Stephenson, and Donte Smith. (And they lost their PG, Jio Fontan to injury too.) That is not a recipe for success.

Since Kevin O’Neill has taken over as head coach, USC has been cursed with horrible offensive production. In 2010-11, Vucevic helped salvage the USC offense slightly. But now that Vucevic is gone, expect a return to the land of turnovers and bricks. 

USC is not the only team to return the wrong players in the rotation. Here are some other notable teams that return the wrong players this season. These teams not only lose a lot of talent, they lose the most efficient offensive players from the rotation:

Illinois loses five of its six most efficient scorers from last year. The Illinois seniors may have struggled to earn wins in their career, but their propensity for high shooting percentages and low turnover rates will be hard to replace. Only the fact that Illinois has had multiple great recruiting classes is going to keep the team from collapsing this year. (Well, that and Meyers Leonard’s apparent development over the summer.)

For Tennessee, Tobias Harris and Scotty Hopson took their efficient play to the NBA, while Melvin Goins and Brian Williams graduated. The returning group is led by Cameron Tatum, but as Tatum’s 27% three point percentage on 125 three point attempts last year indicates, the returning group is not nearly as efficient.

For VCU, the Rams lose three of their four most efficient scorers (Jamie Skeen, Joey Rodriguez, and Brandon Rozell), and will have a hard time duplicating last year’s success. Bradford Burgess is going to see a lot more double teams this season.

And for Butler, say goodbye to Matt Howard and his 120.2 ORtg as well as Shelvin Mack and his 106.8 ORtg. And look forward to more Ronald Nored and his 86.3 ORtg. Thank goodness for Butler’s sake that Andrew Smith is back.

Last Year’s Horizon League Standings

- Remember Eli Holman, the power forward who transferred from Indiana, throwing a potted plant in Tom Crean’s office in the process? He transferred to Detroit and has provided a legitimate low-post presence for the Titans. With Detroit’s entire rotation returning this off-season, many are pegging Holman’s team to win the Horizon league title. But Holman is now on an “indefinite leave of absence” and any hope that Detroit has of winning the league is almost certainly contingent on his return.

- Wright St. started to slip last year after Brad Brownell left for Clemson, and now the team loses several extremely valuable seniors this off-season. Head coach Billy Donlon is going to need to start putting his own stamp on the program if it is going to stay competitive.

- Valparaiso could have been a league title contender this year, but the team loses one if its best players, lead guard Brandon Wood, to Michigan St. I have no problem with Michigan St. following the rules and getting a valuable player. But I think we have to acknowledge how bad the graduate school transfer rule is turning out for the mid-majors. Mid-majors have traditionally survived by red-shirting a lot of players and hoping to develop teams filled with fourth and fifth year players. Those mature experienced players are the best way to compete with the superior talent of the major conferences. But with fifth-year seniors now able to transfer and play elsewhere immediately, the mid-majors may be unable to retain the most valuable 5^th year seniors.

Worse yet, if mid-majors fear losing their fifth-year players, they become more reluctant to red-shirt players overall. And the age/experience advantage that mid-majors once held may be partially negated.

Last Year’s Pac-10 Standings

I really like what the Sporting News did with this conference, placing the top four teams (Arizona, UCLA, Washington, and California) right next to each other in the Top 25. All four have a legitimate chance to win the league title, and all four have serious question marks. To call the league title a four-way coin flip makes a lot of sense.

But I also think there is reason to expect another down year for the league. Last year, the league struggled in the non-conference schedule, but despite those struggles the conference still had more early entrants in the NBA draft than any other conference. (The next table includes 2 Colorado players, but even without those two players, the Pac-10 would still be at the top of the list.) That talent drain, combined with another recruiting class that was less than dominant, suggests that Pac-12 may be in for another disappointing year. RealGM recently examined the Pac-12’s potential NBA prospects and there isn’t a guaranteed 2012 lottery pick in the group.

- I do not understand preseason rankings that have Arizona far ahead of the pack. Yes, Arizona beat Duke in the NCAA tournament last year. But they lost all-world player Derrick Williams to the NBA. Plus, the player that accounted for the second most possessions on the team, Momo Jones, has transferred. And the team’s most efficient player, Kevin Parrom, was recently shot and is recovering from that injury. 

- I loved UCLA’s Tyler Honeycutt and Malcolm Lee, but they were not particularly efficient players last season. Tyler Honeycutt missed a lot of two-point baskets, and Malcolm Lee took a lot of questionable three-pointers. Both players had the talent to be superstars, but neither had quite put it all together before declaring for the NBA draft. The real problem for UCLA this season is that they are going to be over-loaded in the frontcourt, and weak in the backcourt. The additions of North Carolina transfers David and Travis Wear should help the team, but it cannot replace Malcolm Lee’s contributions.

- The Pac-12 did not have a lot of players in the high school all-star games last spring, but Washington guard Tony Wroten was impressive, and I look forward to seeing him suit up for the Huskies this season. 

- Jeff Bzdelik installed a culture of defensive indifference at Colorado, and Tad Boyle was not able to change that in his first year. Part of the problem was that Colorado’s best lineup was short and lacked the interior presence to get stops. But building around Andre Roberson and Austin Dufault on the interior, Colorado has to make defensive stops a priority this season. With the Buffaloes’ talent losses, they are not going to be able to outscore people at will, and the defense has to get better if this team is going to stay competitive.

- Stanford had one of the youngest teams in D1 basketball last season, and all those minutes they gave to freshman should pay some dividends. If you do not know who Anthony Brown and Dwight Powell are now, you will be the end of the season.

- Utah has some college basketball tradition based on Rick Majerus’ time with the school. But in the last decade, other than Daniel Deane, Utah has simply not had the Top 100 recruits they need to compete at the highest level. This off-season was no different. Utah has to start bringing in a higher caliber of player if they are going to compete in the new Pac-12. 

- Herb Sendek has tried to step away from his reputation as a “Princeton offense” type of coach. But without a ton of talent on his roster right now, it seems like he would be wise to return to his roots. Northwestern, Georgetown, and Boston College have all shown that less talented recruits can thrive with the right cuts and screens. And yet, I read that Sendek wants to get more transition baskets and run more this season. Why abandon a proven system? Are the Pac-12 defenses simply more disciplined about stopping back-cuts and screens? Oregon St. head coach Craig Robinson, a former Ivy league coach and Bill Carmody assistant, has also struggled to run Ivy league sets in the Pac-12.