Perhaps I have too many memories of Alex Legion, but I have always wondered if there is a “lemons” problem with transfers.  I.e., a player that is a bad fit in one environment, might be more likely to be a bad fit elsewhere. But in general, the data do not support that statement. Transfers are more productive than freshman, at least in the BCS leagues. Looking only at players to debut in a BCS league from 2003-2011:

96.7 is the average ORtg for 1758 freshmen
98.3 is the average ORtg for 267 JC transfers/walk-ons*
100.6 is the average ORtg for 186 D1 transfers** 

*This category includes players who begin to have data after their freshman year and have no data at any other D1 school. It includes junior college transfers as well as non-freshman walk-ons with over 25 possessions used on the season.

**I have 213 D1 transfers into BCS schools in my database, but 13% did not have enough possessions with the new team to calculate a reasonable ORtg.

If transfers are generally this valuable, we should be optimistic about Iowa St. The Cyclones bring in four highly publicized transfers in Michigan St.’s Chris Allen, Southern Illinois’ Anthony Booker, Penn St.’s Chris Babb, and Minnesota’s Royce White. But I have also shown in the past that coaches without D1 coaching experience are much more likely to be flops. In other words, there’s a pretty good chance this season is a total disaster for Iowa St. and Fred Hoiberg starts packing his bags. With a team relying on this many transfers, the window of opportunity is short. Win now, or move on.

Last year’s MWC standings

I sometimes like to point out when the margin-of-victory numbers suggest certain teams were better or worse than their record would indicate. But in the case of New Mexico, I don’t think anyone was fooled by last year’s 8-8 record. This was a very competitive team in a tough MWC that just happened to lose a number of close games last year. And with UCLA transfer Drew Gordon now eligible to play the entire season, New Mexico looks like one of the league favorites. (Yes Gordon was a transfer. As usual, I have made a not-so-subtle attempt to tie the conference previews into the opening topic.)

Boise St. had one of the rising teams in the WAC last season, but with virtually all the key players graduating this offseason, it will be hard for them to finish in the top half of the MWC.

Last year’s Big 12 standings

There is probably no conference where I more strongly disagree with other experts than the Big 12. Most polls seem to love Baylor, Texas A&M, and until recently Missouri. On some level, I understand the love for Texas A&M. They made the NCAA tournament last year, and return a number of key players. But Texas A&M is not a likely candidate to jump up and contend for the Big 12 crown. First, Texas A&M was extremely lucky to be a Top 25 team last year. When you look at their opponent adjusted margin-of-victory numbers, Texas A&M was very similar to Northwestern. But somehow, by winning a lot of close games, and beating the right opponents, A&M earned a solid seed in the NCAA tournament.

This year A&M returns fewer possessions than Northwestern. And unlike Northwestern, the players A&M returns are actually substantially less efficient. Dash Harris, he of the 17% three point percentage and 29% turnover rate last year, was one of the least efficient players in a major conference. The best case scenario is that last year was a fluke and that several Texas A&M players will bounce back. But in terms of average expectations, this looks like a borderline NCAA tournament team. The Sporting News left Texas A&M out of their preseason Top 25 and I agree wholeheartedly.

I also have a lot of concerns about Baylor. The problem for Baylor is that they were terrible offensively and defensively last season. On offense, they swap out LaceDarius Dunn for Top 10 recruit Quincy Miller. But the real key should be the addition of JC transfer Pierre Jackson at the point guard position. Assuming Jackson can solve Baylor’s extreme turnover problem from last season, the offense should be noticeably better. But I am less confident the defense will be better. Only when Ekpe Udoh was with the team has Scott Drew’s club ever been a dominant defensive squad. In most seasons his team’s defense has ranged from bad to worse. Quite honestly, I can tell you if Bill Self was coaching the Baylor Bears, I would gladly endorse them as a Top 10 team. But with Scott Drew, past history tells us we should be very concerned about their defense.

I was ready to endorse Missouri as a Top 25 team, and possible league favorite, but the injury to Laurence Bowers completely changes the Tigers outlook in my eyes. Bowers was simply an all-around stat-sheet stuffer, and there is no way his production will not be missed. It isn’t just his points and rebounds – he had the highest block rate and steal rate on the Tigers last year. That kind of production will be almost impossible to replace, and with a huge question mark in the paint now, I see Missouri as just inside the Top 40 instead of just inside the Top 25. Some people will probably claim that is too far to drop a team for just one player, but there are a lot of similar teams at this point in the rankings. And Bowers was not just another player, he was an unheralded star.

Of course that means I have a little extra love for Kansas, Kansas St., and Texas. In all three cases, the answer is recent history. In the tempo free era, Bill Self has been the best defensive coach in the nation. And while I wonder if Tyshawn Taylor can lead a team with relatively few McDonald’s All-Americans, as long as Bill Self is coaching elite defense, Kansas should be the favorite.

Kansas St. similarly gets no love, despite the fact that Frank Martin has never won less than 21 games as the Kansas St. head coach. Clearly, this looks like one of his weakest teams on paper, but other than Jacob Pullen, this team does not lose anyone they cannot replace. Curtis Kelly and Wally Judge were terrible last year, and neither will be severely missed. And the real reason the team turned around its season last year was because guards Rodney McGruder and Will Spradling began to emerge as stars. With those two knocking down shots in the back-court, and the nation’s best coach when it comes to teaching offensive rebounding, this still looks like one of the top teams in the Big 12. 

Finally, we come to the Texas Longhorns. Texas lost a ton of players to the NBA Draft. But remember what happened the last time Texas had a team this young? That was the 2006-07 season, otherwise known as the year Kevin Durant emerged. Rick Barnes realized he had a star, and rode Durant to a successful season. This year’s recruiting class is not quite as strong as 2006-07, but I love how this post from Rush-the-Court describes Texas’ recruiting class. It may not be all McDonald’s All-Americans, but there is a lot of talent here. And in the last nine years, Rick Barnes has never finished worse than 26^th in the Pomeroy Rankings. With Myck Kabongo and J’Covan Brown, history says Rick Barnes will be able to ride a couple of stars and win a lot of Big 12 games. 

So perhaps to make this season a little more interesting, I am throwing out my Big 12 bet. I am going to take Kansas, Kansas St., and Texas, and give the unnamed experts Baylor, Texas A&M, and Missouri. And if my group wins more conference games over the course of the season, I get bragging rights.

Final Notes: I sure hope Oklahoma St. prized recruit LeBryan Nash sticks around a couple of years, because the school's recruiting seems to be getting better, and I think this team is still a year away from being dominant. I think new head coach Lon Kruger could do wonders at Oklahoma by just improving the defense, but the offensive talent is still lacking.