For Part 1 of the ACC Preview, click here.

Maryland 

Despite playing at a slower tempo than Gary Williams, Mark Turgeon’s tempo free statistics are remarkably similar. The next table shows Williams numbers since his NCAA title, and Turgeon’s numbers in his four years at Texas A&M. 

Comparing Two Great Coaches

Coach

Gary Williams

Mark Turgeon

Years

2002-03 to Present

2007-08 to Present

eFG%

50.0

50.3

TO%

19.9

19.2

OR%

36.2

35.7

FT Rate

37.2

46.0

eFG% against

45.6

46.8

TO% forced

21.7

19.3

DR%

65.6

70.6

FT Rate against

32.8

32.3

NCAA Appearances

5 of 9

4 of 4

One critical difference is that because Turgeon’s players are less likely to get out and run, they are more likely to stay home and grab defensive rebounds. But in a slower-paced environment, Turgeon’s teams also force less turnovers. The other stark difference is that Turgeon’s teams have been much better at getting to the free throw line. Otherwise the two coaches have been remarkably similar. In the nine years since a national title, Williams average efficiency margin ranked 22nd among BCS coaches. Turgeon’s average efficiency margin at Texas A&M ranked 24th. Some Maryland fans, who have been disappointed with the nine years since a national title, may not be happy with this comparison. But finding a Top 25 coach is no small task. And Turgeon may have his best days ahead of him.

This is a rebuilding year at Maryland with Jordan Williams leaving for the NBA. And Turgeon suffered the loss of recruit Sterling Gibbs who de-commited from the Terrapins after Gary Williams retired. But with young point-guards Terrell Stoglin and Pe’Shon Howard developing into quality distributors, and prized recruit Nick Faust joining the team, Turgeon will have some pieces to work with as he starts the new era.

Virginia 

Virginia struggled immensely on the interior last season, ranking 321st in the nation in two point FG%. The team shot so poorly on twos (43%), that it almost made a higher percentage of threes (39%). The Cavaliers biggest problem was injuries to senior forwards Mike Scott and Will Sherrill. The good news for Cavaliers fans is that those injuries situation gave seven-footer Assane Sene more time to develop in the interior. Sene showed flashes of brilliance as a shot-blocker, rebounder, and he was quite effective at getting to the free throw line. Sene also struggled with turnovers, but he is expected to provide a more consistent inside presence thanks to the experience he gained last season. The second piece of good news is that Mike Scott was granted a medical waiver and granted an extra year of eligibility. With Sene and Scott manning the interior, Virginia should be more competitive in the paint. Meanwhile the team’s best three point shooter, Joe Harris, is back. And the team adds a pair of highly regarded recruits in Malcolm Brogdon and Paul Jesperson to provide scoring.

The new question for Virginia may be the point-guard position. Jontel Evans had a solid assist rate, but took too many bad shots while struggling with turnovers last year. The team was often more productive with Sammy Zeglinski distributing the ball, but he was another Virginia player who struggled with injuries last season.

With the slowest tempo in the ACC, Virginia is usually within striking distance in every game. And with a rebuilt interior, the team could be capable of an upset. But Virginia desperately needs some continuity. After two years of transfers and crazy injuries, Tony Bennett desperately needs this year’s lineup to stay on the floor.

Clemson 

Brad Brownell took over at Clemson without a lot of hype or fanfare. He was a strong defensive coach who taught solid fundamentals. And that is exactly what we saw in his first year with the team. The Tigers had the 11th best defense in the nation, and the offense improved two fundamental areas. Clemson valued the ball more (the Tiger’s turnover percentage fell from 21.5% to 20.3%), and Clemson got to the free throw line more frequently (improving its free throw rate from 34.8% to 38.5%). 

But the offense still held the Tigers back and left them as one of the “last teams in” the NCAA tournament. The team was never fully able to replace Trevor Booker in the paint, and now the team must replace Jerai Grant. Grant was a monster inside last season shooting 57% from the floor while posting the fourth best block rate in the ACC. None of Clemson’s returning forwards is a polished offensive player as Booker or Grant. And while Clemson brings in a number of new players this season, none is considered a “can’t miss” prospect.

The team should be more successful at replacing Demontez Stitt at the point guard position. Tanner Smith and Andre Young were both solid passers in limited situations last year. And for three years Young has been one of the best three point shooters in the ACC. But the questions in the paint are significant. At Clemson, it is never going to be easy to win consistently. The basketball program simply lacks the tradition of other ACC powers. But if Brad Brownell can bring some post players along, he may find himself replicating the Seth Greenberg formula. With great defense and a few stars, you can win a lot of games in the ACC.

Virginia Tech

Plenty of good coaches are willing to use short rotations. John Calipari used just six players during much of last year’s Final Four season. But Table 7 shows that Seth Greenberg took this to a new extreme in 2011. 

No Bench Needed

Seth Greenberg

Bench Minutes (National Rank)

2011

18% (341st)

2010

28% (243rd)

2009

31% (173rd)

2008

29% (218th)

2007

28% (225th)

Perhaps this reliance on the starters explains Virginia Tech’s penchant for inconsistency. Against elite teams, the starters are fueled by adrenaline for 40 minutes. But a little foul trouble or a little exhaustion opens the door to an upset to a lesser team.

The other problem with a short rotation is that bench players will often transfer to greener pastures. Virginia Tech wing Manny Atkins did nothing but produce in limited minutes last season. He was the team’s most efficient scorer and yet he barely saw the floor. And with recruit Dorian Finney-Smith joining the team and expected to start ahead of Atkins, Atkins decided to transfer this off-season. Short rotations are great if you are a starter, but not so nice if you are on the outside looking in.

The good news is that by utilizing the best lineup, Virginia Tech just needs to find a few new stars to run Seth Greenberg’s system. And the recruiting class of Dorian Finney-Smith, CJ Barksdale, and Robert Brown might provide all the spark this team needs. They will join guard Erick Green, who was a fabulous distributor and ball-handler while playing off Malcolm Delaney last year, and forward Victor Davila, who was great at getting to the line last season. The team also welcomes back JT Thompson and Dorenzo Hudson for a 5th season after both earned medical redshirts last year. The cliché is that Virginia Tech begins and ends each season on the bubble. But with seven strong players competing for rotation spots, Seth Greenberg should not have trouble finding a core five for next season.

Miami 

It is not often that a program can add a coach who has been to the Final Four (Jim Larranaga) and return every rotation player except one (Adrian Thomas). Miami was also somewhat unlucky last season, losing a number of close games, including a two point loss to North Carolina in the ACC tournament, and a three point loss to the Tar Heels in January. Thus there were many reasons to expect the Hurricanes to make a big jump up in the standings this year.  But summer injuries to forwards Julian Gamble and Reggie Johnson have derailed some of that enthusiasm. 

Regardless, the key for new head coach Jim Larranaga will be upgrading a defense that was 99th in the nation last year. The biggest problem last season was that Miami gave up far too many wide-open threes.  On paper, Larranaga should be able to improve the team’s perimeter defense.  But with Johnson and Gamble missing in the post, the holes in the interior may stop the Miami defense from improving substantially.  Offensively, Durant Scott and Malcolm Grant might be the best backcourt in the ACC. Grant and Scott are both fabulous passers and great three point shooters. But Reggie Johnson provided a key inside presence that gave Scott and Grant open looks. Johnson was the team’s most efficient offensive player, and he was particularly adept at getting to the line last season.  Thus the offense may also depend on Johnson’s return to reach its full potential.  The good news is that Reggie Johnson is expected to return for ACC play in January.  The bad news is that he may not be able to dominate the ACC immediately upon his return.  But if Miami is going to live up to its lofty summer expectations, the Hurricanes need their star post player to come back and play at a high level. 

Florida St. 

In 2010 and 2011 Leonard Hamilton’s Florida St. teams gave up the fewest points per possession in the nation (after adjusting for opponent quality.) And Florida St.’s transformation into a defensive juggernaut has led to three straight trips to the NCAA tournament.

Defense Earns NCAA Bids

Leonard Hamilton

Adj. PPP Def (Rank)

NCAA

2011

86.2 (1st)

10 seed

2010

84.5 (1st)

9 seed

2009

89.0 (12th)

5 seed

2008

92.5 (43rd)

None

2007

93.7 (55th)

None

2006

93.3 (44th)

None

2005

95.4 (75th)

None

While the Seminoles lose Chris Singleton to the NBA draft, they add two top 100 recruits in Antwan Space and Terry Whisnant. And while the team loses point guard Derwin Kitchen to graduation, the team adds former Arkansas Razorback point guard Jeff Peterson who is eligible immediately as a graduate school transfer. With the key replacements in place on an NCAA tournament team, this sounds like the perfect recipe for an ACC title contender.

But there are at least two concerns. First, Chris Singleton was among the nation’s leaders in blocks and steals last year, and Derwin Kitchen was among the nations leaders in steals. Even if Leonard Hamilton has proven to be a fantastic defensive coach, it will not be easy to replace two of the best individual defenders in the nation.

Second, Jeff Peterson may seem like an obvious solution at point guard, but he is a vastly inferior offensive player to Kitchen. Peterson’s assist to turnover ration was poor, and his shooting percentage was low causing him to post an 89.5 ORtg last season. Florida St.’s own website described his signing as big news, but “not necessarily because of his scoring or ball-distributing, but because of his leadership.” Unfortunately leadership is hard to quantify. By the measurable statistics Peterson has significant limitations, and he joins a team with significant players graduating.

Duke and North Carolina 

North Carolina is the top team in the country in the preseason polls, but Duke appears loaded again as well. The Blue Devils add the top recruit in the nation in Austin Rivers who is both an elite passer and scorer, and the Blue Devils also bring in four more elite recruits in Quinn Cook, Marshall Plumlee, Michael Gbinije, and Alex Murphy. Plus every returning Duke player (except Josh Hairston) had an ORtg over 100 last year. Compare this to Florida St. which returns just two players with ORtgs over 100 and you quickly realize the imbalance in quality scorers in the ACC. Duke and Carolina have them in bunches, while everyone else has serious questions.

But there is a reason most Tar Heel fans are confident this season. North Carolina finished ahead of Duke in the ACC standings last season, and North Carolina brings almost everyone back from last year’s rotation. And returning minutes have been an incredible predictor of the battle between Mike Krzyzewski and Roy Williams.

Throwing out Williams first year, in every season where North Carolina has returned more minutes than Duke, they have finished at least two games ahead of Duke in the ACC standings (see 2005, 2007, and 2009). In years where Duke has returned slightly more minutes, North Carolina has also won the ACC by one game (see 2008 and 2011). Only when North Carolina has experienced substantially more turnover (see 2006 and 2010, after the title seasons), has Duke finished ahead of North Carolina in the ACC standings.

Predicting the ACC Champ

 

Returning Minutes

 

Year

NC

Duke

Difference

ACC Standings

2012

78%

61%

17%

?

2011

43%

58%

-15%

NC 1 game ahead

2010

33%

60%

-27%

Duke 8 games ahead

2009

85%

79%

6%

NC 2 games ahead

2008

70%

82%

-12%

NC 1 game ahead

2007

76%

39%

37%

NC 3 games ahead

2006

16%

68%

-52%

Duke 2 games ahead

2005

97%

63%

34%

NC 3 games ahead

This season, North Carolina returns 17% more minutes than Duke (and it would have been 25% more minutes if not for the injury to Leslie McDonald.) And if recent trends continue, the Tar Heels should finish at least two games ahead of Duke in the ACC standings.