I am embarrassed to say that I was a little excited when I heard that Kansas guard Tyshawn Taylor would miss a few of the upcoming Jayhawk games. I certainly do not wish injury on anyone, but given that Taylor is such an enigma, I am very curious to see whether Kansas does better or worse without Taylor in the lineup. No one can question Taylor’s statistics with Kansas, but many skeptics have questioned his leadership and decision-making. And Kansas didn’t seem to miss a beat when Taylor was out of the lineup in previous seasons. But this Kansas lacks depth this season, and I think it should be fascinating to see how the Jayhawks respond without their veteran guard.

It turns out there are a number of lineup changes that I am interested in tracking right now. How will St. John’s respond to Nurideen Lindsey’s decision to transfer? Will Texas A&M play better now that Chris Middleton has returned from injury? Will UCLA miss Reeves Nelson now that he has been dismissed from the team? And can Festus Ezili give Vanderbilt the defensive boost it needs to be an elite team?

Most of these lineup changes happened recently and we do not have enough data to analyze them yet. Still, with splits on my mind, I decided to see what numbers we could break down so far. As in previous seasons, because schedule strength can have such a large impact on the splits, I’m presenting the opponent adjusted offense and opponent adjusted defense, the points per 100 possessions.

 

Adjusted Offense

Adjusted Defense

W

L

NC State (without Leslie)

113.0

96.2

3

0

NC State (with Leslie)

111.9

100.2

3

3

 

 

 

 

 

Georgia Tech (without Rice)

104.4

96.6

2

1

Georgia Tech (with Rice)

100.8

86.0

4

3

I start with these two splits to emphasize that not all splits are interesting. NC State’s CJ Leslie was ineligible for the first three games of the season as was Georgia Tech’s Glen Rice Jr. But I don’t think we can learn much from either of these incidents. NC State didn’t need Leslie to blow out a string of cupcakes to start the season. And since that time NC State has struggled, particularly on the defensive end. But I don’t think this means NC State is better without Leslie.

But when the splits explain what our eyes are seeing, they can be incredibly useful. It doesn’t take a mathematician to be impressed with Ryan Boatright’s eligibility-delayed debut for Connecticut. He’s been shooting the ball and passing the rock like a veteran leader. And not surprisingly UConn’s offense and defense have been substantially better with him on the floor. UConn was performing like the 45th best team in the country prior to Boatright’s arrival, and the team has played like the 6th best team in the country since he joined the team three games ago. I can’t say whether Boatright’s dominance will last. Three games is an awfully small sample. But with Andre Drummond proving to be a poor defensive rebounder and struggling to make free throws at the start of his career, UConn needed someone to step up. Boatright has done just that. 

 

Adjusted Offense

Adjusted Defense

W

L

Connecticut (without Boatright)

112.8

97.6

5

1

Connecticut (with Boatright)

120.6

92.0

3

0

 

 

 

 

 

Temple (with Eric)

108.1

91.8

3

1

Temple (without Eric)

112.2

99.9

3

1

Another split that rather closely matches expectations is what happened to Temple after Michael Eric was lost for the year. Eric was Temple’s best shot-blocker and the critical presence at the heart of the defense. With Eric, the team was playing like the 36th best team in the nation. Without him, they’ve been playing like the 63rd best team. Mostly this reflects the fact that as soon as Eric was injured, Temple had a poor defensive performance in a loss to Bowling Green. The good news for Temple fans is that Fran Dunphy isn’t going to sit back and let the defense struggle. And already against Villanova, we’ve seen the Owls play better defense again. Perhaps by March we will be able to write the Bowling Green loss off as a fluke. But more than likely, some of the defensive struggles will persist as Temple struggles to replace its man in the middle. 

In the past, I’ve waited til January to show a bunch of splits, but this year I want to spread them out so I can tell a little more of the story behind the numbers. Here are two splits that deserve more than a few words:

 

Adjusted Offense

Adjusted Defense

W

L

South Carolina (without Ellington)

102.9

101.3

2

3

South Carolina (with Ellington)

100.9

99.1

2

2

 

 

 

 

 

Minnesota (with Mbakwe)

110.4

96.3

6

1

Minnesota (without Mbakwe)

112.5

90.6

5

0

I start with Bruce Ellington’s return to South Carolina. In the preseason, the Gamecocks were picked to finish 101st in the nation by Ken Pomeroy, and 98th by your's truly in ESPN the Mag. Those aren’t lofty expectations, but the team has actually been worse than expected, losing to Elon and Tennessee St. at home, and losing to a mediocre USC team on a neutral court.

Some had hoped that sophomore Bruce Ellington’s return from the football team would save the day for the basketball team.  But so far his return has done little to spark the team. South Carolina has been playing closer to the 150th best team in the nation both before and after his return.

Conventional wisdom seems to be that once Ellington gets his basketball legs back that he’ll be able to dominate again. But I am skeptical. Last year, Ellington was one of the least efficient players in a BCS conference. Yes, he scored a lot of points, but he needed a lot of possessions to get those points. And I have a hard time believing his return is going to salvage this team. So far the splits confirm my skepticism.

Moving onto the second split, one of the biggest puzzles this season is why Trevor Mbakwe’s injury has not caused Minnesota to fall apart. Mbakwe was on a number of preseason all-Big Ten teams and there was no doubt he was Minnesota’s best player. But to understand how the team has survived without him you need only look within the tempo free box score:

 

Before

After

Before

After

Before

After

 

PctMin

PctMin

PctPoss

PctPoss

ORtg

ORtg

Trevor Mbakwe

72%

0%

27%

0%

111.8

0.0

Rodney Williams

65%

81%

15%

20%

121.7

120.2

Austin Hollins

63%

66%

19%

16%

117.2

121.3

Julian Welch

48%

71%

23%

26%

96.9

120.2

Ralph Sampson III

42%

31%

17%

27%

107.6

121.9

Andre Hollins

42%

39%

25%

16%

107.1

90.2

Chip Armelin

38%

42%

21%

26%

98.2

99.1

Oto Osenieks

37%

21%

20%

15%

92.3

71.1

Maverick Ahanmisi

28%

51%

22%

16%

106.5

108.7

Elliott Eliason

23%

50%

14%

15%

116.3

80.8

Joe Coleman

20%

27%

16%

28%

105.6

139.2

Andre Ingram

19%

19%

15%

15%

96.9

85.5

Chris Halverson

2%

3%

31%

12%

76.5

101.4

Kendal Shell

1%

3%

23%

21%

0.0

30.9

First, we see that Julian Welch has emerged as both a starter and an efficient scorer for the Gophers. He’s raised his ORtg from 96.9 to 120.2 since Mbakwe went down. This is a classic example of why splits are misleading. Welch would have likely improved his ORtg even if Mbakwe was still on the floor. Down in Orlando, Welch seemed to get more confidence in his game. And his improvement has occurred despite Mbakwe’s absence, not because of it.

On the other hand, there have been some lineup changes that were the result of Mbakwe’s lost minutes at the forward spot. First, Rodney Williams is playing significantly more minutes as a power forward instead of a wing. And Williams has finally become a more aggressive offensive player. Whereas before he was using only 15% of the possessions when on the floor, now he uses his fair share of 20%. And since Williams has been one of the team’s most consistent offensive players, posting an ORtg above 120 before and after the injury, more Williams has been great for Minnesota. 

I’d love to show you the defensive player stats, but since I’m not David Hess or Luke Winn, that’s not going to happen. But I would speculate that Elliot Eliason’s additional minutes in the post have also been productive. While Mbakwe was likely trying to avoid foul trouble, Eliason knows his role is just to be a big defensive bully in the middle. And the stats certainly confirm that Eliason is not afraid to give a foul.

Indeed this last chart is a proto-type of what I hope becomes a new feature. As the season progresses, I hope to show more of these before and after tempo free box scores for more teams. How will Detroit adapt to the return of Eli Holman? How is Baylor reacting to the return of Perry Jones III? Splits aren’t always meaningful, but they are almost always fascinating.