This is my third column on missing and returning players this season. (Here was the first installment and second installment.) As always, I adjust the tempo free stats for opponent quality and venue. Today’s splits should not be a huge surprise to fans who follow college basketball closely, but I will try to provide some insight into the surprise turnarounds. I start with the results of the Cincinnati-Xavier Brawl that took place in December:

The fallout from the Xavier-Cincinnati brawl has certainly resulted in different outcomes for the two teams. Xavier was playing like the 15^th best team in the country prior to the brawl. But in the 4 games when either Tu Holloway, Mark Lyons, or Dezmine Wells was out, the team was a shell of itself offensively and defensively. Since those players have returned, the team has had some hiccups, losing to Gonzaga and La Salle. But La Salle is better than most people think, and Xavier has nearly equaled its early season form.

On the flip side, Cincinnati had a disastrous start to the season, and the suspensions seemed to spark the team to grow. The biggest change is an improvement in the offense and there are several contributing factors. First, Jaquon Parker, who missed the first 7 games of the season, debuted. Parker has been shooting lights out from three point range and currently has the top ORtg on the team. Parker’s success has also caused a little bit of a dilemma for Mick Cronin because he doesn’t want to take guards Cashmere Wright, Dion Dixon, or Sean Kilpatrick off the floor. Instead Cronin has now often elected to run a 4-guard lineup on many occasions. The other key change is how the team utilizes Yancy Gates. Gates is clearly one of Cincinnati’s best players. He’s been a monster in the paint since he stepped on the floor as a freshman. But early in his senior year he was struggling with double-teams and zone defense. Gates was taking too many dumb shots and his team was turning it over too much trying to force the ball to him in the paint. But during his suspension, the Cincinnati guards gained a lot more confidence and became a lot more aggressive. And their success is opening up the things for Gates inside. Gates was shooting 45% prior to the brawl, and he’s shot 53% since the brawl. Overall, Cincinnati has simply become a much more balanced team offensively, and because of the length of their guards, they haven’t sacrificed on the defensive end.

Next I want to move on to two of the biggest stories of the non-conference season, the absence of Khris Middleton from Texas A&M and Festus Ezeli from Vanderbilt. 

Shockingly, Texas A&M has gotten worse since Khris Middleton debuted. Middleton has posted great PPG numbers, but he is using a lot of possessions to post those stats, and he is having the least efficient season of his three year college career. His two point shooting percentage is down, his three point shooting percentage is down, and he is getting to the free throw line at a much lower clip.

Middleton’s struggles aren’t bringing the offense down, because the offense wasn’t playing that well anyhow.  But since Middleton has been back on the floor, A&M’s defense has disappeared. Some of that is bad luck. Florida had a lights out shooting day against the team when Middleton returned. But part of it may also be Middleton’s knee injury. Middleton has always been a little under-sized to defend the paint, and coming back from a knee injury makes him ill-equipped to guard perimeter players. I haven’t seen Middleton get abused defensively, but I have to believe that his teammates are having to help him out more this season.

For Vanderbilt, Festus Ezeli’s return has been a boost. With him in the lineup, Vanderbilt has played like the 18^th best team in the nation. The win at Marquette accounts for a lot of that improvement, but Vanderbilt has been better across-the-board. They still haven’t been playing like the top 10 team they were in some pre-season rankings, but after a rough early stretch, they’ll take it.

Finally, I end with two Big East splits. For St. John’s Nurideen Lindsey left the team and Amir Garrett became eligible. (I’m going to throw out the one game where neither played.) Despite the change in personnel, St. John’s has been incredibly consistent. 

On the other hand, South Florida’s turnaround remains one of the most shocking changes of the season. It is hard not to do a double-take when you look at the standings and see that the Bulls are 4-2 in the Big East. I watched USF lose to Auburn in December, and the team simply could not find a way to score. But from the moment Jawanza Poland has debuted, things have turned around.

Perhaps the turnaround should not be a huge surprise as Augustus Gilchrist, Anthony Collins, and Jawanza Poland all missed games early in the year for South Florida. On the other hand, none of these players have great efficiency stats individually. If you look at their season long numbers, I wouldn’t necessarily predict that any of them would turn the team around. The tempo free splits explain the story:

The explanation for the defensive improvement is Anthony Collins. Collins has the top steal rate on the team, and he is one of the few players with the quickness to guard an opposing point-guard. Since Collins has been healthy and playing more minutes, USF has had to deal with fewer players driving into the lane. (I feel like Jawanza Poland is also a little better defender than Shaun Noriega, but I don’t have the stats to back that up.)

But the offensive improvement is more of a puzzle. Collins has actually been struggling offensively during the last 8 games. And while Poland was great in the last game against St. John’s, his offensive efficiency is not off the charts.

I think the answer is that Poland finally gives the team a guard who can drive and create his own shot. While Noriega was basically a spot up three point shooter, Poland creates a lot of problems for the opposing defense. And his high volume has lightened the load on his teammates. With Poland in the lineup, Gilcrhist, Anderson, and Robertson have all gotten more easy opportunities.

Most importantly Victor Rudd Jr. is no longer forced to take a lot of bad perimeter jump shots. Rudd was taking almost 6 threes a game prior to Poland’s debut, and now he is down to 3 threes per game. And by wasting fewer possessions, Rudd has found a better position as a role player on the team.

South Florida has played some of the weaker teams in the Big East as part of its 4-2 start. But they’ve also played UConn tough, and handled an improved Seton Hall team. I have a hard time believing their recent hot streak will last, but right now the Bulls are playing like the 36^th best team in the nation. And for Stan Heath, that is a reason to celebrate.