On Saturday, Jay Bilas said that this is “another down year for college basketball” and that it has been “down for at least three years”. Other college basketball analysts feel the same way. (Here is something Matt Norlander wrote on the topic.) Bilas and many writers feel that in order to have a great season, we have to have a number of dominant teams. We need to have elite teams with minimal losses and minimal flaws so that we can stand around the water-cooler and argue which team is truly great. Instead, when you list off Top 25 teams this year, you tend to elicit these types of comments:

Ohio St. – If Jared Sullinger gets in foul trouble, this is just an average team. And Sullinger will get in foul trouble at some point in the NCAA tournament. Plus Jon Diebler is gone and William Buford is struggling this year. Without their scoring, it is hard to imagine a deep run. 

North Carolina – Any team that loses by 33 to Florida St. either lacks talent, or lacks the drive to make a deep run in March. March is all about overcoming adversity and finding a way to win, and this team doesn’t handle adversity well.

Syracuse – Their record is inflated. They mostly stayed at home in the non-conference, and they should have lost to West Virginia on Saturday if not for a blown goal-tending call that cost West Virginia’s Denis Kilicli the tying basket. (Never mind that Syracuse might have won in OT anyway.) Plus, if Fab Melo doesn’t come back, this team will get abused on the interior. 

Kentucky – The Wildcats are too dependent on freshmen to win six games in March. 

Missouri – They lack depth and size. The fact that they lost to Oklahoma St. and struggled with Texas Tech this week shows that their short rotation is getting tired. And the Kansas St. game showed that against the wrong match-up, they’ll get exposed on the boards. 

Baylor – The defense has been horrible against good teams this year, and the offense is completely disorganized. There is almost no attempt to get the ball to their best player, Perry Jones III, on a regular basis. 

Kansas – They’ve been playing great basketball, but this isn’t a talented team. Their margin for error is very small as they showed in a loss at Iowa St. this weekend. 

Duke – They lack a true point guard and are a poor defensive team. That’s not a good recipe for a March run.

Michigan St. – This team may be manufacturing wins in the Big Ten, but as they showed at the opening of the season, they don’t have the talent to hang with teams like North Carolina. 

Georgetown – They were exposed this weekend at Pittsburgh, and were struggling to beat weak teams even before that. 

Wisconsin – Any team that loses at home to Iowa is not very good. As they’ve shown in past NCAA tournaments, by playing at such a slow pace, they give weaker opponents a great chance for an upset if the opponent can just get hot for a few minutes. 

Virginia – They have the same problem. At their slow pace, they can’t pull away from weak opponents. They needed a late run to put away from a terrible Boston College team in the middle of the week. 

Michigan – Their margin-of-victory numbers are terrible. They are more likely to get blown out in March than to go on a deep run. 

UConn – They also have poor margin-of-victory numbers, and their offense looks horrible right now. 

Florida – Any team that loses to Rutgers and Tennessee is not very good. In the NCAA tournament Florida will have a game where they can’t make their perimeter jumpers and Florida will lose. Patric Young may be physically strong, but he’s too mentally weak to take over and lead his team to victory. 

Vanderbilt – Speaking of mentally weak, Vanderbilt doesn’t have the defensive toughness to win when it counts. Even with Festus Ezili in the lineup, they’ve lost twice at home. 

Marquette – Didn’t they lose to Vanderbilt by 20 at home? 

Mississippi St. – Any team that depends on a knucklehead like Renardo Sidney is bound to screw up at some point. 

Indiana – They would be fine if the NCAA tournament was played at Assembly Hall. 

West Virginia – They are far too young as they showed in a road loss at St. John’s this week. They weren’t even competitive in that game. 

Murray St. – The fact that this team is ranked in the Top 10 in one of the polls says everything about how weak college basketball this year. 

Before you start sending me hate mail, these comments aren’t necessarily how I feel about any of these teams. I could just as easily write a column where the glass was half-full. But let’s assume the critics are correct that there are few elite teams this year. I still disagree with the notion that college basketball needs elite teams in order to be entertaining. This weekend we had games like this:

- NC State made a furious rally at home against Virginia, but Virginia had great defense on the final possession and held on to win by 1.

- Notre Dame committed the perfect foul (up 3 with 2 seconds left) to prevent UConn from getting a game tying shot on Sunday. But UConn made the first FT, missed the second FT, and nearly put-back the miss. Fortunately for Notre Dame, the put-back came up short.

- Washington took a big lead at Arizona and even had a huge late jumper by Quinton Ross. But Arizona’s Solomon Hill would not be stopped and he tied the game late. Unfortunately for Arizona, with the score tied the Wildcats committed a foolish foul 60 feet from the basket, which handed the game to Washington.

- Meanwhile, Minnesota and Illinois played their second OT game of the season. (More below.)

All of these games could have huge bubble implications at the end of the year, and all of these games were extremely entertaining. Perhaps the analogy is this. If you think the best part of the NCAA tournament is the Final Four, maybe you aren’t excited right now. But if you think the best part is the opening weekend, there is plenty to be excited about.

Bilas’ next argument is usually that the quality of play is down. I’d love to see a quantitative explanation of why the quality of play is worse this year. Are there more missed FTs than in past seasons? Are there more turnovers? I realize scoring is down, but the number of points per possession has increased since conference play began.

But I think the people launching the criticism aren’t pointing to a particular aspect of poor play, just a general idea that they’ve seen better execution in previous years. (Arizona’s dumb late foul against Washington might be Exhibit A.) But I think this is a great example of where perceptions are misleading. College basketball is a developmental sport. Almost every team in the country is on a steady learning curve from the moment they start play in November. Every week is a new defensive game plan against new offensive sets. Every week teams incorporate new offensive wrinkles. If you want polished, you watch a pro-sport where the roster has been the same for three years.  If you want to watch athletes giving their all and getting better, you watch college basketball.

Odd News

- Did a Big Ten game really end with a regulation score of 103-89? Thank you Tom Crean and Fran McCaffery for not being afraid to push the pace at Indiana and Iowa.

- If you have a lot of time on your hands, log onto ESPN3 and watch the replay of the UConn vs Notre Dame game from Sunday. With 7:08 left in the second half, there is one of the oddest camera shots I’ve ever seen. How does a referee end up holding a player's ankle with the player standing on his head?

- I can’t believe more people aren’t talking about the disgusting display by the fans at this weekend’s St. Mary’s at BYU game. The BYU fans, apparently disappointed with the score of the game started throwing things on the court. And they were even assessed a technical foul. The poor display of sportsmanship is particularly appalling given that BYU has tried to stake its reputation as an institution with “higher” standards. What does it accomplish to suspend Brandon Davies if the fans display that level of decorum?

- St. Mary’s coach Randy Bennett somehow broke his thumb this week when a white board fell off the wall on top of him. You just can’t make this stuff up.

Elsewhere 

- Louisville had 24 turnovers in a win at Seton Hall. Villanova’s 20 turnovers cost the team an 18 point lead vs Marquette. And Kansas St. had 20 turnovers in a three point home loss to Oklahoma. (Maybe the quality of play is down this year.)

- Prior to the brawl with Cincinnati, Xavier was the favorite in the A10. Then St. Louis was the team with the great non-conference margin-of-victory numbers, making them the slight favorite. Then Dayton went on a hot streak and after an impressive win over Xavier, they looked like the favorite. So of course this weekend Dayton lost to last place Rhode Island, a team with a 3-18 record heading into the weekend. Now UMass, La Salle, and St. Bonaventure are tied for first in the A10, and I don’t think the changes atop the standings are over.

- I feel sorry for Georgia St. and Ron Hunter. Entering CAA play Georgia St. had the best margin-of-victory numbers and looked like the surprise favorites in a weak CAA. But after losing four of the last five games, one in double OT, one by a 1 point, and one by 3 points, Georgia St. now sits in 6th place in the league.

Minnesota at Illinois 

Minnesota and Illinois have now played two games this season and the two games were practically mirror images. 

In Champaign

- Illinois held a double digit lead in the second half

- Minnesota came back and took a late lead that looked safe given the time left

- But Minnesota committed a tough foul at the end of the game that allowed Illinois to send the game to OT

- And Illinois prevailed in double OT

In Minnesota

- Minnesota held a 9 point lead in the second half

- Illinois came back and took a late lead that looked safe given the time left

- But Illinois committed a tough foul at the end of the game that allowed Minnesota to send the game to OT

- And Minnesota prevailed in OT

I’d really love to see these teams meet again in the Big Ten tournament because I truly have no idea which team is better. A few more notes on Saturday’s game:

- With 4 seconds left and down three, Austin Hollins foolishly drove the lane instead of trying for three. But he got the bucket and foul and scored a three point play the old fashioned way to send the game to OT.

- For those of you that get tired of coaches over-managing from the sideline, Minnesota’s Andre Hollins took advantage. In OT, Hollins saws Illinois guard DJ Richardson look at Bruce Weber for the defensive signal and Hollins drove by Richardson for points.

- Rodney Williams had a poor game but had two more fabulous dunks. His steal and elevating dunk from the side got more style points, but his offensive rebound dunk after a Gopher missed FT was probably more important.

- Even though Illinois fell behind big in the OT session, Brandon Paul continued to make great plays in the clutch. His 28 point day seems pedestrian relative to the 43 against Ohio St., but he gave the team everything he had. Paul’s defense was also fantastic in the game including an amazing block of a Rodney Williams dunk attempt and some timely deflections. I know Paul’s offensive efficiency stats aren’t great, but the Illinois offense is not crisp, and Paul has to bail Illinois out by taking the tough shot far too often. He may not be an all-Big Ten player, but he is clearly a star for the team. My only qualm with Paul is that far too many of his three-point misses lead to a transition hoops for the other team.

Ultimately, I’m not sure whether Illinois or Minnesota will prove to be the better team this year. Both teams have found late bloomers in the starting lineup, Minnesota with Joe Coleman and Illinois with Joseph Bertrand. Illinois is trending the wrong way right now, but a 2-point loss, 4-point loss, and OT loss (when Meyers Leonard fouled out) does not convince me that Illinois is terrible. Minnesota is trending the right way right now, winning 4 of the last 5, but the Gophers looked sufficiently ineffective against Michigan St., that I need to see more before I fully endorse them. The key difference might be whether you believe in stars or emerging players. Illinois has two stars in Meyers Leonard and Brandon Paul. And while Minnesota has no stars, their bench chipped in 39 points in Saturday’s win. Whether stars or depth will win over the course of the season remains to be seen. Regardless, the depth of the Big Ten remains on full display.