The Warriors and Bucks exchanged problematic situations in a five-player trade where Andrew Bogut and Stephen Jackson are heading to Golden State for Monta Ellis, Ekpe Udoh and Kwame Brown.

Experts and fans of both sides are somewhat bewildered by how the trade truly benefits John Hammond and Joe Lacob. It is a classic NBA blockbuster trade made by two teams without a top-20 player that won’t put either of them into the top-eight of the NBA.

The logic for Golden State, a franchise that has had interior defense issues since trading Nate Thurmond for Clifford Ray in 1974, is easier to understand. In Bogut, the Warriors acquire a top-four center who is still just 27.

Bogut has a career True Shooting Percentage of 53.8%, which is low for a big and he has been under 50.0% in 10-11 and in his 364 minutes this season. Some of that drop can be blamed on how Brandon Jennings operates as a point guard and he should see a bit of bump with Stephen Curry, but it is safe to acknowledge Bogut is a middle of the road offensive player.

The real value of Bogut comes on defense, where he has been a dominant on-ball and off-ball player over the past three seasons. Bogut’s PER production differential, a stat that is particularly insightful for players who earn their money on defense, has been +7.1, +3.8 and +2.0 in 09-10, 10-11 and 11-12 respectively.

The question for the Warriors is whether Bogut will ever be healthy enough again to be that +7.1 center? Bogut fractured his left ankle in January and has also battled a host of different injuries, from his gruesome elbow dislocation to an injured back previously. The Warriors are betting on those injuries as being largely circumstantial and that does seem like a reasonable gamble.

If Bogut is still that player he was in 09-10, there is no chance the Bucks deal him for a tweener shooting guard that many people within the NBA suspect is largely a product of a high-possession basketball and bad teams where he has had free reign to freelance and score 21 to 22 points per 36 minutes on a True Shooting Percentage under 54.0%.

Ellis would have left the Warriors in 2013 via free agency and was incredibly anxious to leave now, so acquiring one of the best five or six centers in the NBA in exchange is a great trade even if it cost them a promising defensive big in Udoh.

But there is tremendous risk in taking on more salary for a player that seems chronically injured for what amounts to medium reward. If Bogut and Stephen Curry are each able to resolve their ankle issues, that nucleus (along with David Lee and the however Klay Thompson develops) feels like one that has a ceiling as a seven or eight seed in the Western Conference.

The real ancillary benefit is that the odds of the Warriors picking in the top-seven increases with the production of Ellis and Udoh being replaced by Bogut on the shelf. Golden State desperately needs to keep that pick in order to have any real shot of leaving their mediocrity treadmill.

The easier play for the Warriors would have been to use a trade of Ellis to essentially declare bankruptcy and start from scratch to accumulate young assets around Curry, Thompson and Udoh while waiting for a true superstar to come from those high draft picks. 

Golden State is trying to piece together a deeply flawed roster and that is admirable, it worked perfectly when they turned Dale Davis and Speedy Claxton into Baron Davis. This trade could have a similar result in buying low on Bogut, but they didn’t buy all that low and the high point of that entire exercise was being an eight seed for the ages. The potential upside feels similar with this deal.

Grade for Warriors: C 

You never trade big for small in the NBA, but sometimes it makes sense to trade injured for healthy. Ellis has been one of the NBA’s most durable minutes-eaters and will help Milwaukee remain in contention for one of this year’s final playoff berths.

The backcourt of Jennings and Ellis will produce points in bunches, particularly in transition, but the defensive issues Golden State had with Ellis/Curry carryover. The Bucks were actually above average this season offensively, scoring 104.0 points per 100 possessions while their defense slipped from fourth to 22nd with Bogut limited. Milwaukee will take another step forward in offensive firepower, but there are always inconsistencies to be expected from a team that relies on perimeter scorers.

The core now is Jennings, Ellis, Ersan Ilyasova, Drew Gooden, Carlos Delfino and Udoh. It is an intriguing team in the short-term, but it is difficult to see how they are truly better in the long-term. The Bucks have been in need for a scorer who can create his own offense and that has been what John Salmons, Bobby Simmons and Stephen Jackson have been about, and while Ellis solves that issue, his addition brings a new set of issues.

Udoh put this trade over the top for Milwaukee and brings a similar skill-set as Bogut as a shot-blocker and rebounder, he is more of a power forward than a center and is unlikely to be more than a rotation player.

The Bucks save a significant amount of money in the deal, shedding Jackson’s $10.06 million for 12-13 and $27M in committed salary to Bogut in each of the next two seasons. This is a substantial maneuver for a franchise like the Bucks. It will help them be able to afford to keep Ilyasova this summer.

The potential blowback is that Ellis can become a free agent in 2013 if he doesn’t exercise his $11M option for 13-14.

Grade for Bucks: C+