A growing group of college basketball experts have argued that we should eliminate the conference tournaments. They argue that the regular season champion is the team most deserving of the automatic bid to the NCAA tournament, and smaller conferences often end up sending a less deserving teams to the Big Dance. I agree that the regular season champion is usually the best team. But college basketball is not inherently about having the best teams around at the end. If it was, the NCAA tournament itself would not be a single elimination format. Instead, I continue to love the win-or-go-home drama the conference tournaments present.

Last year, Isaiah Canaan led Murray St. to a near undefeated campaign. But with a number of his teammates graduating this off-season, Canaan’s team was not a legitimate at-large candidate this year. To make the tournament, Murray St. had to win the OVC tournament and beat a juggernaut Belmont team in the process. And since Belmont would probably receive an at-large bid (if eliminated in the OVC final), bubble teams everywhere were forced to root for Belmont and against NCAA hero Isaiah Canaan.

And even though Belmont was clearly the deeper and better team, Canaan did everything he could to will his team to victory on Saturday. After Belmont had come back from 10 down to tie the game in the second half, there was Canaan making a three and drawing the foul to give his team a 4 point lead. Fans of bubble teams everywhere were panicking. But missed free throw by Murray St. gave Belmont’s Kerron Johnson a chance. Down two in regulation, Johnson drove into the lane and looked for an open three point shooter who he could feed for a game-winning shot attempt. But since no double team was forthcoming, Johnson turned around calmly knocked down a face-up jumper to send the game into the extra session. And then Canaan and Johnson dueled some more. The game finally ended with Belmont’s Johnson hitting a pull-up jumper for the game-winner with 2 seconds left in OT.

Conference tournaments ensure that for every team there is one last chance for redemption. Whether your last game is the OVC final, the first game of the Pac-12 tournament, or the round of 64, everyone eventually faces lose-or-go-home.

Big Ten Tournament Printable Bracket

The Big Ten was the top conference in the nation and the finale between Indiana and Michigan lived up to the hype. The Hoosiers won the outright conference title, but it came down to a ball hanging on the edge of the rim at the end of regulation. A simple half centimeter difference and there would have been a 4-way tie for first place. Still, for those of us who like to think teams make their own luck, I flash back to a play Indiana’s Victor Oladipo made two minutes earlier. With Christian Watford hanging in the air and taking a bad shot, Oladipo ran to get the ball, and made the lay-up as the shot-clock expired. If it wasn’t for Oladipo’s awareness, the Hoosiers wouldn’t have even been in position to win at the end. Indiana may have locked up a 1-seed by winning the outright title in the best league in the country this year, but the winner of the tournament will also have a serious claim to at least a 2-seed.

CW-CL: Conference Wins and Losses

T50W-T50L: Wins and Losses vs RPI Top 50

N50W-N50L: Wins and Losses vs RPI 51-100

BL: Bad Losses to teams outside the RPI Top 100

NCSOS: Non-conference strength-of-schedule

RNW-RNL: Road-neutral wins and losses

Bubble Banter: Iowa may have more conference wins than Minnesota and Illinois, but they have only four wins against the Top 50, and only one win against teams ranked 51-100. Keep in mind that the Hawkeyes were the only team in the Big Ten to play Purdue, Northwestern, Nebraska, and Penn St. twice. That combined with a weak non-conference schedule is why the Hawkeyes probably need at least one more Top 50 win (against Michigan St. in the quarterfinals) to make the tournament field. Purdue has only three top 50 wins to go along with 16 losses. That is why, even with the same record as Minnesota and Illinois, Purdue is not an at-large candidate at this point.

While Illinois and Minnesota’s numbers do look slightly more impressive, perception matters a lot. This isn’t all about numbers. It is about committee members voting to put these teams in the field. The loser of the Minnesota vs Illinois first round game is going to end the season with a three game losing streak and be extremely nervous on selection Sunday.

MWC Tournament Printable Bracket

Wyoming gave the MWC a huge gift this year. Wyoming was undefeated in non-conference play, and then lost their leading scorer, which basically made them a cupcake in conference play. Wyoming effectively boosted all of the team’s power numbers, including giving 1-2 free Top 100 wins to each team. I don’t actually see the MWC as a league that will earn a lot of NCAA tournament wins this year, but they absolutely will get some quality seeds.

Bubble Banter: If Air Force can beat UNLV on Wednesday, they might actually make the MWC into a six-bid league. At this point, I think that is more likely than Boise St. or San Diego St. getting left out.

Big East Tournament Printable Bracket

After sweeping Syracuse to become co-Big East champions, John Thompson III didn’t make any grand sweeping pronouncements. No “Manley Fieldhouse is Officially Closed” was uttered by Georgetown’s current coach. And I loved how Dana O’Neil of ESPN put it. JT3 is neither self-indulgent nor arrogant enough to make a statement like that. Georgetown and Louisville both have a chance to earn a 1-seed in the NCAA tournament if they can follow-up their shared regular season title with a conference tournament title. And Marquette might be able to do it too. The Golden Eagles will have a couple more losses on the full season, but three more Top 50 wins would also put them in the discussion.

Bubble Banter: Providence is playing much better basketball lately, but has many more bad losses than Cincinnati. Realistically, there may not be much bubble intrigue in the Big East, as the line below Cincinnati is fairly clear.

ACC Tournament Printable Bracket

If Duke wins the ACC tournament, is everyone going to pick them to win it all? The stat that Duke is “undefeated with Ryan Kelly in the lineup” is getting a lot of press lately, and while I believe they are a better team, I think the hype may be getting a little out of hand. I don’t believe we should completely dismiss losses (such as what happened at Virginia) because of one player. But yes, Duke is clearly a favorite at this point.

Bubble Banter: North Carolina’s profile is eerily weak at this point. It is hard to believe that teams like Minnesota, Boise St., and Cincinnati can have better profiles than a 12-6 Tar Heel team. North Carolina’s improved play down the stretch is going to sway public opinion in their favor (and it should), but if they get a poor seed, the lack of quality wins is going to be the reason.

Virginia (like Iowa above) has one huge red-mark on their resume, that 300+ NCSOS. The NCAA tournament committee almost always punishes at least one team for soft scheduling by leaving them out of the field. Right now Virginia has that target on their back, so avoiding a quarterfinal loss in the ACC tournament is critical. Florida St. and Maryland just don’t have tournament profiles at this point.

Big 12 Tournament Printable Bracket

It sort of seems hard to believe that Kansas has so many Top 50 wins at this point, but some of their non-conference victories (like Belmont and St. Louis) look really good right now. The Jayhawks certainly make a better than expected case for a 1-seed in the tournament. But they may need to win the Big 12 tournament to get it, especially with the Big East, Big Ten, Duke, and Gonzaga all making cases for 1’s. Kansas St. may have shared the Big 12 regular season title, but their profile is not nearly as impressive. They are actually 5-6 against the Top 50, and while they’ve avoided bad losses, I think some people will be surprised how different the seeds are for Kansas and Kansas St. on selection Sunday.

Bubble Banter: The officiating error at the end of Iowa St.’s loss to Kansas might give the Cyclones some support in the committee room. Remember, the committee is made up of people. Whether or not they should count that fact, I’m sure some of them will. Baylor’s win against Kansas may have saved their season, but with only 3 top 50 wins and 13 losses, they could use a little more padding on their resume. Baylor must beat Oklahoma St. in the Big 12 quarterfinals if they want to make the field.

Pac-12 Tournament Bracket

UCLA is going to be a trendy bracket pick next week, but I see a four-seed in UCLA’s future. They just don’t have the quality wins of the other conference champions.

Bubble Banter: People get a little too hung up on Top 50 wins sometimes. Arizona St.’s record of 1-4 against the next 50, and Arizona St.’s three bad losses are crippling. Throw in a NCSOS near 300 and I would draw the cut-off between Colorado and Arizona St. But as John Gasaway has noted frequently at Basketball Prospectus, the difference between the top and bottom of the Pac-12 is not huge this year. A surprise Pac-12 winner is not out of the question.

Atlantic 10 Tournament Printable Bracket

I might be looking forward to the A10 tournament more than any other conference this year. The twelve seed Dayton is extremely dangerous (having lost a lot of close games due to poor perimeter defense.) Pre-season favorite St. Joseph’s is seeded tenth. And a whole host of quality teams know that 2-3 wins in this tournament is the difference between being a 9-seed on selection Sunday and heading to the NIT.

Bubble Banter:  Realistically, while Butler plays on Thursday, and La Salle is off until Friday, La Salle is the bubble team here. La Salle desperately needs to win Friday’s quarterfinal match-up.

SEC Tournament Printable Bracket

I actually think a number of teams at the top of the SEC seem to be playing better basketball. But the season was lost in November and December. The SEC simply lost too many games and that destroyed everyone’s profile.

Bubble Banter: Kentucky still has just two Top 50 wins at this point. They may need to make it to the SEC final to secure an at-large bid. Ole Miss and Alabama also lack the quality wins to make a legitimate case for the tournament. And Arkansas has just one win this year away from home.

Missouri is in the best shape with the lack of bad losses and three quality wins, but even Missouri’s resume isn’t perfect. Tennessee is also making a late charge at a bid. Thus even though they must play on Thursday, Tennessee and Missouri might be favored to reach the SEC semifinals.

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