Conference Performance

There are four Big Ten teams in the Sweet Sixteen and Charles Barkley is eating crow. But has the Big Ten done anything yet? After all, the Big Ten earned a lot of highly protected seeds in the tournament. As I have done in previous years, today I look at which conferences have actually exceeded seed expectations.  What are seed expectations? Based on past tournaments, here are how many games each seed has traditionally won in the field of 64:

(I’m ignoring the opening round. For teams that played in the opening round, I give them half-the expectation. So La Salle was expected to win 0.13 games in the round of 64.)

The next table shows how many wins each conference should have been expected to get in this tournament based on seeding, and how many wins each conference has so far. I also list the number of teams still alive in the tournament.

The Big Ten needs just two more wins to exceed traditional seed expectations, and with four teams still alive, that seems quite plausible. The A10, Pac-12, SEC and MVC have already exceeded expectations in the tournament.

The Big 12 has been the biggest disappointment in the tournament by far. With just three wins through two rounds, even if Kansas wins the national title, the league cannot match pre-tournament expectations. The Big East has also been a big disappointment. While the league was a perfect 3-0 in the round of 32, it was only 3-5 in the previous round. Other disappointments include the WCC and MWC.

Of course, dominating the early rounds of the tournament may not mean that much if the Big Ten doesn’t win a national title.

Ice Water in His Veins

Jim Nance, “Can we just have great games the rest of the tournament?” Apparently that wasn’t too much to ask. Sunday was easily the best day of the tournament so far.

We start in Dayton. Ohio St.’s Aaron Craft was not having a perfect game. He missed the front end of two one-and-ones. He went for a steal, but couldn’t corral it, which caused his teammate to commit a foul. And as he dribbled the ball in a tie game in the final seconds, it seemed like he was wasting too much time. Was there enough time to get to the rim? Was there enough time to kick to a teammate? Craft was only a 29 percent three-point shooter and he probably shouldn’t force a shot here. It didn’t matter. With ice water in his veins Craft nailed the buzzer beating three. It wasn’t clear if that was the first choice. But when Iowa St. switched and left Georges Niang on Craft, and when Niang sagged bad to prevent the drive, Craft stepped up with the buzzer beating shot.

Meanwhile, Temple seemed to have the perfect game-plan to beat Indiana. As Wisconsin had proven, the way you frustrate Indiana is by slowing the game down. I thought a sequence with nine minutes left in the second half showed it perfectly. Jordan Hulls (injured and heroically returning to action with a vest on to protect his injured shoulder) hit a huge three pointer to pull Indiana within one point. And it seemed like Indiana was about to have one of its patented blitzes. But with two players trapping the ball mid-court, Temple didn’t panic. They passed the ball around the perimeter and then made the extra pass to get TJ Dileo a look at a lay-up. Dileo missed, but grabbed his own rebound and kicked it out. Then Temple passed on two great looks at jump shots and fed Anthony Lee for a beautiful lay-up. By making at least 3 extra passes on the possession, Temple worked 44 seconds off the clock, scored, and prevented Indiana from gaining any rhythm offensively.

But then something changed. While Indiana had been stymied by the slow pace against Butler, Minnesota, and Wisconsin twice, the Hoosiers refused to let it happen again.  Zeller and Oladipo worked their way to the free throw line to give Indiana the lead. And then, in a must-score situation (not wanting to hand a one point lead to Temple with the chance at the final shot), Victor Oladipo rose to the occasion. Oladipo is a player who makes less than one three point shot per game. But with ice water in his veins, Oladipo nailed a three that made the margin 4 points and sealed the Hoosiers victory.

Elsewhere, ACC champion Miami was not having a vintage day. After some early success feeding Tonye Jekiri (of all people), point guard Shane Larkin was not having much success feeding his big players for easy shots. And with Durand Scott struggling, it seemed like Illinois might be prepared to pull the upset. Tracy Abrams had just drove for a wide-open lay-up after Larkin made a huge mistake defensively and followed behind a screen. And Brandon Paul had just followed it up with a huge drive for a dunk to give Illinois the lead. And that’s when Shane Larkin, with ice water in his veins did it again. The ACC player-of-the-year stepped back for a three point attempt and nailed it to give his team the lead. Free throws sealed it.

And what about La Salle. After Ole Miss had started to dictate its advantage in the paint following layups by Nick Williams and Reginald Buckner, the Ole Miss lead had swelled to 5 with just 4:15 left. That’s when La Salle’s Sam Mills caught the ball in transition and nailed a three pointer while drawing contact. It looked like a chance for a four point play, but it turned into a five point play when Mills’ missed free throw was rebounded and put-back in by teammate Jerrell Wright. In a moment’s time, the five point lead was gone. And in the final seconds, La Salle seized the moment.

Seth Greenberg loved to use short rotations at Virginia Tech. He believed it gave him the best chance to win. But that made a player like Tyrone Garland the victim. Garland played just 10 minutes per game as a sophomore at Virginia Tech, (at least in part because of his poor shooting numbers.) But Garland believed he had so much more to give. He left Virginia Tech mid-semester and joined La Salle at mid-season this year. And as I noted three weeks ago, La Salle became a better team with Garland in the lineup. They went from being something near the 63rd best team in the nation, to one of the nation’s Top 40. But Garland still wasn’t a great three point shooter. The turnaround, if anywhere, was in La Salle’s defense. And so it came down to the final seconds. La Salle drove and kicked the ball out to Garland. Almost everyone takes the three point shot in that opportunity. And even if it misses, there is a chance for an offensive rebound. But Garland is not a great outside shooter. So without the above ice water, he chose the smart play. He drove to the right side of the key, hung in the air, and banked home the game winning shot.

Four of the best games of the tournament in one day, and I haven’t even talked about the first 15-seed in NCAA tournament history advancing to the Sweet 16 yet.

Other Notes

-During the Illinois-Miami game Nnanna Egwu tried to back down Reggie Johnson in the post. “He might as well have tried to push over the stanchion.”

-I thought Charles Barkley nailed it regarding Ben Howland leaving UCLA. “Ben Howland is a good coach. He doesn’t deserve to be fired. But it is hard enough to win when everyone is on your side. When everybody wants you out of there, it is just best to move on.”

-I thought it was amazing how effective Iowa St. was at drawing fouls on Ohio St. The Buckeyes almost never foul, but Iowa St. managed to get enough contact to get in the bonus much earlier than expected in both halves.

-We all hate the elbowing rule. But I thought the referees got it wrong when they called James McAdoo’s elbow of Jeff Withey inadvertent contact. I saw the same play called a foul on at least two other occasions in the round of 64, and this seemed to be a case where the referees missed the initial call and didn’t want to admit they were wrong. McAdoo picking up three in the first half could have completely changed the game.

But in many ways, it was also perfect basketball karma. No one has been winning in this tournament by getting things handed to them. As Florida Gulf Coast’s Sherwood Brown said in his pre-game introduction before the Georgetown game, “They aren’t going to give it to us, we have to take it.” In the first half against North Carolina, Kansas (and Jeff Withey) were asking for someone to give them the win against North Carolina. And Withey begging for a flagrant call really summed it up perfectly. That was why North Carolina led 30-21 at halftime.

But when Travis Releford decided he wanted the game, and when Kansas decided they were not going to give up another easy look the rest of the game, that was when Kansas advanced to the Sweet Sixteen.

-What is it with potential draft prospects flopping in this tournament? Kansas phenom Ben McLemore looked like a deer in the headlights against Western Kentucky in the first round, but that was nothing compared to his 0-9 performance against North Carolina that had him riding the pine. Kansas made it to the Sweet Sixteen without McLemore playing well, but they won’t make it much further if the freshman superstar doesn’t start playing better.

-On paper, Creigthon-Duke sounded like a fun offensive match-up between two great three-point shooting teams. But no one denies three-point attempts like Duke and the game didn’t live up to the hype.

-Florida Gulf Coast has now shredded two of the Top 15 defenses in the country. This is scary. They also lead the nation in crazy late-game dunks. If Brett Comer had dunked late in the game, I don’t know what would have happened to the world.

Thank You Seniors

I wish every tournament game could be close so every senior could go out with a few more hero plays.

-I feel so bad for Temple senior Scootie Randall putting up an 0-for-12 performance. He heroically returned from a knee injury and was Temple’s second leading scorer this season. But his career ends with a nightmare game, and a lot of fingers pointing in his direction since the loss was so close.

-Meanwhile Minnesota senior Trevor Mbawke never really regained his inside dominance after tearing his ACL last season. While he did get one nice dunk-and-one on an airball late in the Gophers loss to Florida, one of the Big Ten’s all-time most physical players didn’t really go out in style. Minnesota senior Rodney Williams also chipped in one relatively meaningless dunk late in the game against Florida. For a player whose heroic dunks have often been the only reason to watch Minnesota play, I had hoped for one more highlight reel. (Rodney Williams put-back dunk against Florida St. remains my personal favorite because of how far back he had to go to get the ball.)

That said, I hope Minnesota fans still feel like Mbakwe and Williams contributed something to the program. The Gophers are not completely lacking tradition. But after an academic scandal removed their 1997 Bobby Jackson Final Four run from the record book, it has been a long road back. Dan Monson was never able to overcome the recruiting sanctions. And Tubby Smith is a quality coach, but one who can’t quite match the Thad Matta’s and Tom Izzo’s in the Big Ten. This is especially true given his lack of a practice facility on campus which hurts Minnesota’s recruiting.

Minnesota doesn’t start Top 100 recruits up and down the lineup. They hope to win when the seniors all click. Things didn’t click this year for Mbakwe and Williams as they struggle to an 8-10 conference finish in a year where they almost certainly should have gone 10-8 or better. But the Gophers did restore the tradition of winning in the NCAA tournament. And when a team has a drought of 16 years, that shouldn’t be overlooked.

-Similarly, Mississippi senior Reginald Buckner, one of the school’s all-time best shot-blockers, may have wished he could get a re-do on the last second loss to La Salle and get a better chance to deflect Garland’s shot. He may view the loss to the 13 seed as a bit of a disappointment. But for an Ole Miss team that hadn’t won a tournament game since 2001 this was an off-the-charts great year. Winning the SEC tournament title, and earning a tournament win against Wisconsin is an extremely special accomplishment. Rebel pride has clearly been restored.

-If seniors have to lose, I at least prefer for them to be at their best. Illinois senior Tyler Griffey lost his job as a starter three times in his career. The truth is that he was not meant to be a Big Ten player. He was a perfect stretch four, but he couldn’t live up to the brutal physicality of the Big Ten. But Griffey hit a buzzer beater to beat Gardner Webb. He made a buzzer-beater to defeat #1 Indiana. And the player most known for his outside shooting hit four big threes against Miami in the near upset. Even in the loss, that is how a senior should go out, by doing what he does best.

Expected Wins in Field of 64

As I do every day of the tournament, I once again track the expected wins (based on the Pomeroy Rankings) and how these change.

Based on their own win, Florida is now expected to win an additional 0.60 games in the tournament. And based on other events (namely Florida Gulf Coast advancing), that added another 0.18 to Florida’s expectation. (Florida would have been heavily favored against San Diego St. too.)

Sunday’s biggest loser is obviously San Diego St. which let a 15 seed advance to the Sweet Sixteen for the first time. But Ole Miss also let a real opportunity slip away, especially since Gonzaga did not make it to the Sweet Sixteen. Michigan and Michigan St. didn’t play but saw their odds fall slightly with Kansas and Duke advancing. 

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