As has been the case in previous seasons, I open with my tiered power rankings. Please remember that these are not based on anything but projected regular season success. The concept is that teams could finish in any configuration within a tier and I would be surprised if they finished outside of that tier, excluding major personnel changes or injuries. The order represents my estimation of the most likely finish within a tier though that can be splitting hairs in some cases. 

Western Conference 

- Tier One: “No Quarter”

Los Angeles Clippers: A surprising team at No. 1 but keep in mind this is only for the regular season. With Oklahoma City and San Antonio having potential justifications for slight steps back in terms of wins, the Clippers should be better with a strong head coach and nice depth on the perimeter. Losing Chris Paul for any length of time will hurt even more without Eric Bledsoe on the roster, but no elite team in the West can thrive without their best player.

Oklahoma City Thunder: While having a stretch without Russell Westbrook may get the headlines now, the perils of having an owner apparently unwilling to pay the luxury tax to keep their talent might be the bigger problem for Oklahoma City’s seeding moving forward. Changing from James Harden to Kevin Martin to Jeremy Lamb will put more strain on the stars and make it harder to grind out wins in an insanely deep conference.

San Antonio Spurs: If Gregg Popovich wanted to run away with the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, it likely will be there for the taking. However, history has shown the Spurs care more about wins in the playoffs than the regular season so they take a place firmly in the top tier but not all the way at the top using this methodology. They are still the toughest out in the playoffs as long as Tim Duncan and Tony Parker play as well as they did last season.

Houston Rockets: The Rockets were quite good last year, boasting the sixth-best point differential in a strong Western Conference. Even though they presumably will be replacing some Omer Asik minutes with Dwight Howard minutes (less impactful than replacing a scrub with Howard), they should be meaningfully better this season. We will have to see if Daryl Morey can reach into his box of tricks and produce a high-level power forward by mid-season or if the Rockets will just have to live with that flaw for a little while longer.

Memphis Grizzlies: After their surprising trades near the deadline last season, Memphis improved during the offseason by swapping Darrell Arthur for Kosta Koufos. A four-deep big man rotation should allow new head coach Dave Joerger to give his most important players additional rest all season long. Look for Quincy Pondexter to play himself into a larger role as the stakes get higher.

Golden State Warriors: While some may have the Warriors a tier down because of their dependence on injury-prone players Stephen Curry and Andrew Bogut, their depth at positions other than point guard should help buoy the team against the inevitable bumps and bruises that will come over an NBA season. If Mark Jackson experiments and forces opponents into tough situations, the Warriors should couple their homecourt advantage with the respectable road record necessary to put them into this tier.

- Tier Two – “Good Times Bad Times”

Denver Nuggets: While the loss of Andre Iguodala definitely hurts this squad, we should remember that Denver made the playoffs as the No. 6 and No. 5 seed during the two years before they acquired him and the supporting cast should be pretty strong in 13-14. The shift from George Karl to Brian Shaw may actually affect their win total more in the immediate and the time missed by the underrated Danilo Gallinari should prove pivotal as well.

Dallas Mavericks: This may surprise some people after I lampooned their offseason, but Dallas has a respectable chance of making the playoffs. They have an excellent coach in Rick Carlisle and finished just four games out of a strong field in 12-13 despite getting only 47 starts out of Dirk Nowitzki. Their monumentally terrible defensive backcourt could be their undoing but they have enough to overcome it against many opponents.

Portland Trail Blazers: The Blazers had one of my favorite offseasons because they revamped their bench without sacrificing major resources in terms of money or draft picks. Robin Lopez should be an impactful addition right away and CJ McCollum could be the offensive engine for a second unit that sputtered so much last year. I would love to see underrated vet Dorell Wright play some minutes as a glue guy on the perimeter.

Minnesota Timberwolves: A healthy Minnesota team would certainly be a favorite to get at least a playoff spot. Unfortunately, history has not shown that to be reliable enough to make them more than an interesting contender. Ricky Rubio, Kevin Love and newly re-signed Nikola Pekovic are a fun core and League Pass favorites but they will need contributions from swingman talent Kevin Martin and someone else from their SG/SF morass (Corey Brewer, Chase Budinger, Alexey Shved, and Shabazz Mohammed among them) in order to get the wins necessary to make the postseason.

Los Angeles Lakers: Outside of Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Steve Nash, the Lakers have a terrifying group of players. Not good scary, bad scary. They added offense-centric talents like Nick Young to a team that already was bad defensively due to their athleticism and age while also losing Dwight Howard. I love the fact that Pau Gasol will be playing his more natural position at this age, but the Lakers did not construct a team to properly complement his skills. They deserve a spot in this tier because they still have the talent to win games but it could easily go incredibly badly for The Lake Show this season.

New Orleans Pelicans: Deciding to build quickly instead of taking the gradual approach, the Pelicans will need Jrue Holiday to get even better while hoping his play rejuvenates Eric Gordon and helps New Orleans become more disruptive on both sides of the ball. Rising star Anthony Davis will help and a fun group of support players including Ryan Anderson and Al-Farouq Aminu could dictate how far this collection of talent ends up in year one.

Utah Jazz: While I fiddled with having Utah in their own tier below this one, they do have the talent to rise up the ranks a little even before their main cogs are ready for prime time. I am a big fan of Derrick Favors and the chemistry with fellow big Enes Kanter should play a major role in the success of the Jazz in the near and long term. I’m hoping we see plenty of Alec Burks and at least some of Rudy Gobert on a team full of intriguing partially answered questions.

- Tier Three – “I’m Gonna Crawl”

Sacramento Kings: While swapping the now overpaid Tyreke Evans for Grevis Vasquez was a strong move over the long-term, it will take some time for Sacramento’s new ownership and management to arrange and acquire talent that makes sense together. They have a batch of good but not amazing PG’s and a similar batch of unspectacular PF’s that should stratify and eventually shake out over the next season or two. As a big fan of Ray McCallum, it would be fun to see him get a chance to become a part of the future of the franchise as a reserve.

Phoenix Suns: They could be better than this considering the talent they have at PG (Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe) and C (Marcin Gortat), but I am not sure that they have the pieces or motivation to pull ahead of teams like the Kings and Jazz who have more urgency to win now. The strange grab bag of swingman talent stands out as a weak point that other teams can exploit as well as a Dragic/Bledsoe duo that appear to work better sharing time than sharing the floor.

Eastern Conference

- Tier One – “Over the Hills and Far Away”

Miami Heat: It will not be the 12-game margin they carried last season, but Miami looks to be the class of the conference in terms of regular season success. Managing minutes for the top guys will be more important since both the second and third rounds should be tough in a deeper East.

- Tier Two – “Bring it on Home”

Chicago Bulls: Even though it seems like so long ago, the last time Chicago had Derrick Rose they won 76 percent of their games and had the top seed in the East. While this year’s iteration does not have the depth of that team, they should still be formidable with Rose getting the offense back on track and Jimmy Butler coming into his own as an all-around monster.

Indiana Pacers: Taking the momentum from an impressive playoff performance into a strong early start could pay huge dividends for the Pacers since the teams they are competing with will take time to gel and integrate new talent. Upgrading from D.J. Augustin to C.J. Watson should pay dividends in the playoffs and adding Luis Scola to their big man rotation helps keep David West fresh. Frank Vogel will need a deft hand to manage the Danny Granger / Lance Stephenson conundrum since the latter makes more sense as the starter with the surrounding talent, while the personality and history of the former with the team may make that difficult. The race for the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds to avoid Miami in the second round could help keep the Pacers charging until the end of the regular season.

Brooklyn Nets: There is an interesting argument to be made that a full strength Nets team could be the biggest threat to Miami in a playoff series due to their length and skill on the interior. We cannot know whether Brooklyn will be able to field that squad in June since their combination of older and aging talent makes that less likely but it sure is fun to think about. Adding Andrei Kirilenko and retaining Andray Blatche should allow new coach Jason Kidd (so strange to write) the latitude to preserve his core without sacrificing too much in terms of wins and losses.

- Tier Three – “When the Levee Breaks”

Detroit Pistons: The most compelling collection of talent heading into the season since the Pistons have three fascinating interior players who should not play more than two at a time and the strangest perimeter rotation in terms of niches and skill sets. In the end talent should trump fit over a long season as injuries and possibly trades sift out some of the strangeness.

New York Knicks: Andrea Bargnani makes New York a fascinating offensive team though scoring was rarely the problem at MSG last season. Iman Shumpert and Tyson Chandler will have to do yeoman’s work to make the Knicks even porous on defense considering the rest of the roster unless J.R. Smith makes another jump on that end.

Atlanta Hawks: Replacing Josh Smith with Paul Millsap could work out pretty well for an underappreciated Hawks team. Improved depth at PG with Dennis Schroeder and buy low additions like Gustavo Ayon and Elton Brand could push the Hawks above the rest of this strange group though they could also end up towards the bottom if they have a sluggish start to the season and management elects to reload through a year in the lottery.

Washington Wizards: Losing Emeka Okafor before the start of the season showed how precariously the Wizards are built on a few pieces at PG and PF/C. The team I covered in the spring of 2013 would be a playoff team in this conference, but we will have to see if the key cogs can stay on the court and develop an offense that matches their underrated excellence on the defensive end during the stretch run.

Cleveland Cavaliers: If someone could guarantee that Kyrie Irving will play at least 70 games this season, I would put Cleveland in the playoffs without much hesitation. Even adding depth on the interior and backup PG Jarrett Jack does not change that reality. It may actually be a beneficial thing for the Cavs to spend one more year in the lottery if it can yield another quality pick and help woo a prodigal son returning to attempt to break the Cleveland Curse next summer.

Toronto Raptors: The hardest team in the entire NBA to predict in this format. There are reasonable scenarios where the city falls in love with an athletic team that makes a respectable run to the playoffs behind Jonas Valanciunas and a fascinating swingman group but there are plenty where the wheels fall off before or after the team retools and sacrifices this season to the draft gods. Even though he will begin the season coming off the bench, the development of Terrance Ross may trail only Valanciunas in terms of importance for the long-term future of the franchise.

Milwaukee Bucks: Another strange mix of talent from a strong and pretty balanced frontcourt to a brand new backcourt. It felt like they were moving towards a playoff run this season behind LARRY SANDERS! and Ersan Ilyasova before they moved Brandon Jennings for Brandon Knight, leaving them without a strong primary ballhandler and giving the team a lower ceiling. Milwaukee will need to take a few major positive steps to top this group.

- Tier Four – “Ramble On”

Boston Celtics: Like Utah in the West, Boston could have been in their own tier because they have substantially more talent at the moment than the other teams they are grouped with. Evlen without Rondo, the Celtics have players like Jared Sullinger and Avery Bradley that could be valued contributors on good teams and enough depth to win games. That said, they fit down here because they have strong leadership in the front office and appear willing and able to sacrifice this season to build a more sustainable and prosperous next few years.

Charlotte Bobcats: Signing Al Jefferson to a large, short contract may have made Charlotte a little too good at exactly the wrong time. I understand Michael Jordan’s urgency to at least get close to relevance but doing so with a still-bad team leading into a ludicrously strong draft class somehow seems even more appropriate. As long as he gets minutes, Cody Zeller could put up the stats necessary to be a part of the Rookie of the Year discussion in a year when counting stats could be hard to come by for the rookie class.

Orlando Magic: Like Boston, Orlando could be in a higher tier going into this season and chose a different path. This season should mark the final transition from the Dwight/Jameer/Hedo teams to the new core they have built through trades and the draft. The possibility of getting a high-end talent at any position in a stacked class could lead to a greater sense of urgency in their young players looking to give management a reason to build around and not over them.

- Tier Five – “Nobody’s Fault but Mine”

Philadelphia 76ers: They will be terrible. Not as bad as the Nets from a few years ago or Charlotte during the lockout season but pretty awful. Evan Turner still has all the reason in the world to make a statement and could play a fascinating role in the race for the most ping pong balls.

Award Predictions

Most Valuable Player: LeBron James (with Chris Paul finishing second)

Coach of the Year: Doc Rivers

Rookie of the Year: Victor Oladipo

Defensive Player of the Year: Marc Gasol

Sixth Man of the Year: Jarrett Jack

Most Improved Player: Jonas Valanciunas

Executive of the Year: Daryl Morey

Playoff Predictions

- Western Conference

First Round
Clippers over Mavericks in five
Thunder over Nuggets in five
Spurs over Warriors in seven
Grizzlies over Rockets in seven

Second Round
Grizzlies over Clippers in six
Spurs over Thunder in seven

Western Conference Finals
Spurs over Grizzlies in six

- Eastern Conference

First Round
Heat over Wizards in four
Bulls over Hawks in five
Pacers over Knicks in five
Nets over Pistons in five

Second Round
Heat over Nets in six
Bulls over Pacers in seven

Eastern Conference Finals
Heat over Bulls in six

NBA Finals: Heat over Spurs in six (LeBron as MVP of the Finals)