Welcome to the first update of the Lottery Lowdown. The original piece for this season is available here.

To make sure everyone starts at the same place, the lottery covers the first 14 picks of the first round, representing the 14 teams that did not make the playoffs that season. Naturally, these picks can be traded just like any other selections so the teams choosing can absolutely be ones who made the postseason.

The Teams: Who has What

I like to start with the franchises that would not possess their first round pick if they miss the playoffs. Fortunately, this process gets simplified by the fact that many teams put full top-14 protection on their picks and thus will not be included on this list for 2014. Some are more likely than others to be in the lottery but all are included below:

New Orleans Pelicans: The other major part of the Jrue Holiday / Nerlens Noel trade only has top-5 protection. Anthony Davis’ positive play likely took the Pelicans out of the top five but his injury should make them an unlikely playoff team in a stacked Western Conference. [Likelihood of losing their lottery pick: High]

New York Knicks: The Knicks are shipping their first to Denver regardless of finish, so it will be a lottery pick if New York misses the playoffs. At this point, that is certainly a reasonable possibility even in the horrible Atlantic Division. [Likelihood of losing their lottery pick: Moderate]

Brooklyn Nets: Since Atlanta can swap picks with the Nets, Brooklyn could lose their own lottery selection if they miss the playoffs and finish with a worse record than the Hawks. [Likelihood of losing their lottery pick: Moderate]

Detroit Pistons: Joe Dumars and the Pistons have only top-8 protection on their pick going to Charlotte to finish out the Ben Gordon / Corey Maggette trade. Adding Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings makes a total failure of a season unlikely though a playoff run would also take the pick out of the lottery. [Likelihood of losing their lottery pick: Moderate]

Denver Nuggets: A year and a half after making the Carmelo Anthony trade with the Knicks discussed above, the Nuggets agreed to trade the less favorable of their own pick and New York’s selection to Orlando. As such, both Denver and New York would need to miss the playoffs and Denver would have to finish with a better record in order for them to move their own lottery pick to the Magic. [Likelihood of losing their lottery pick: Moderate]

Golden State Warriors: In order to shed salary to sign Andre Iguodala, the Warriors dumped expiring contracts on Utah at the expense of their unprotected picks in 2014 and 2017. As a team expected to make the playoffs, the pick should be worse than 14th. [Likelihood of losing their lottery pick: Somewhat Low]

Minnesota Timberwolves: While the Suns can only get a lottery pick from the Wolves if they end up with the best record of a team that misses the playoffs (due to top-13 protection), that absolutely could happen this year. [Likelihood of losing their lottery pick: Somewhat Low]

Portland Trail Blazers: The Blazers send their first rounder to Charlotte if it is 13th or worse. While Charlotte has a reasonable chance of getting the pick, at this point it looks like it will be coming from a playoff team not one of the near misses.  [Likelihood of losing their lottery pick: Low]

Charlotte Bobcats: The Bobcats send their pick to Chicago if it is 11th or worse. Considering that means they would have to finish with one of the four best records of non-playoff teams in order for them to lose a lottery pick, the chances are incredibly low. [Likelihood of losing their lottery pick: Very Low]

Washington Wizards: As a part of the Marcin Gortat trade, the Wizards send their pick to Phoenix if it is 13th or worse. Since the 9th place team in the East should be outpaced by at least a few Western Conference teams that miss the playoffs, Washington should not lose a lottery pick this year. [Likelihood of losing their lottery pick: Extremely low]

Sacramento Kings: With top-12 protection for this season, the Cavs do not appear likely to get the Kings’ pick for 2014. [Likelihood of losing their lottery pick: Extremely low] 

Other than those moves, all other teams would retain their lottery picks as of this writing.

The Player Pool: Primary Ballhandlers who can defend other positions

One of my biggest points of frustration is the common conflation of a player’s position with his offensive role. We live in a world where one of the best passers in the league is a forward and one of the best shooters of all-time is a seven-foot German guy. This year’s draft class will continue to challenge the flawed logic used far too commonly by both fans, media members, and some coaching staffs.

While even having the capability of being a primary ballhandler for a team holds incredible value, it amplifies substantially if the player can do so while defending a position other than point guard. The traditional alignment leaves running the offense to the smallest player on the court (who also guards the opposing PG) but some of those players do not have the right skill set for that. Guys like Monta Ellis,  Avery Bradley and Brandon Knight would all be better served by having someone else take primary ballhandling duties while still guarding the other team’s lead guard. They also can provide matchup problems because most swingmen in the NBA are not used to spending so much time defending on the ball as opposed to managing off the ball scorers. Unfortunately, there are very few individuals that possess the right combination of size and skill to make this happen. Generational talents like Magic Johnson and LeBron James allowed their teams this flexibility and swingmen a few swingmen including Brandon Roy could take over for periods of time as well.

While some of them will not be able to do so at the NBA level, we could be looking at a remarkable new influx of primary ballhandlers who can guard other positions. The 2013 class has Michael Carter-Williams, who has the length at 6’ 6” with a 6’ 7.25” wingspan to spend some time defending opposing Shooting Guards. While I was skeptical of his ability to run an offense full-time, he has done well so far in Philly.

This year’s draft class could have as many as six players physically capable of such a double:

1. Dante Exum, PG/SG, Australia: Exum has the lateral quickness to defending opposing PG’s despite standing 6’ 6” with a 6’ 9.25” wingspan. At this point, he appears to be the most likely of the group to actually make this happen, though he could just be a tall PG if a team wants it.

2. Andrew Harrison, PG/SG, Kentucky: While some may just see him as a big guard, Harrison’s best role may be running the show as a matchup advantage one position up. His quickness advantage could be more dominant since he has the strength to be fine there. Not a necessity for him but a fun little option for coaches.

3. Dario Saric, PF/SF, Croatia: Likely the most intellectually interesting because he has the handle, passing ability and vision to spend a lot of time on the ball but might even lack the ability to defend opposing small forwards in the NBA. Potentially a true “point forward” who did a nice job at the Hoop Summit and FIBA Under 19 tournament.

4. Kyle Anderson, SF/PF, UCLA: Another unique player because he combines a couple of strange attributes for his size. A strong ballhandler, his career at UCLA has shown him to be better at creating for others than himself though Kyle’s scoring has come on a little more recently and he appears more comfortable taking college threes. Like Saric, Anderson may be too slow to defend NBA SF’s but could be a fun anchor for a bench unit on one of the many teams that has a backup PG who should not handle the ball a ton.

5. Spencer Dinwiddie, SG/PG, Colorado: More in the Brandon Roy mold of a player with off-guard size who can handle the ball and run an offense for stretches, likely as a change of pace guy in that role. In my opinion, Dinwiddie does not have the athleticism to contain NBA PG’s but should be fine against off-guards while also creating for himself and others. May be disserved in the draft process by those who see him as a traditional Point Guard and try to force him to handle them in workouts.

6. Marcus Smart, PG/SG, Oklahoma State: A better overall draft prospect than a few of these guys, as you can see below, Marcus seems like he will stick as a more common PG though defending opposing shooting guards may help him avoid some of the quickest and toughest covers, echoing how Golden State hides Stephen Curry in certain situations.

Preliminary Player Rankings of Draft-Eligible Players

Here is where the players stand as of now.

[NOTE: I include all draft-eligible players regardless of their likelihood to declare for the 2014 NBA Draft. This provides a better measuring stick for everyone and also explains why the list runs to 20 rather than 14.]

1. Andrew Wiggins, SF, Kansas (Previous Rank: 1): A rare perimeter prospect with the potential to be a difference-maker on both ends of the floor. His defensive ability should allow Wiggins to contribute right away in a way that parallels Paul George and he has more natural offensive talent than most athletic wings coming into the league. Still firmly in the No. 1 spot in my eyes.

2. Joel Embiid, C, Kansas (Previous Rank: 4): Despite his lack of experience playing the sport, Embiid shows a great natural feel for basketball and moves well for his high-quality frame. It feels like at worst he will be a high-end player off the bench, a continually useful commodity for a player with legit NBA Center size.

3. Dante Exum, PG/SG, Australia (Previous Rank: 3): Still sold on him and waiting with baited breath for him to play against quality talent again.

4. Julius Randle, PF/SF, Kentucky (Previous Rank: 2): While Randle has not done much to hurt his stock, time has allowed me to contemplate the consequences of him not becoming an elite player at his position. Non-elite power forwards who cannot guard centers are both less valuable on the court and more available than any other position. After all, look at the contract that a young, talented PF like Paul Millsap signed over the summer. He has a good chance of hitting but that downside pushes him down the board just a little.

5. Jabari Parker, PF/SF, Duke (Previous Rank: 6): While his stock has gone up for many people, I have become increasingly concerned with whether Parker will be able to produce offensively against NBA athletes and defenders. He has struggled pretty consistently so far against those rare guys in college and destroyed most everyone else, so he still needs to convince me of that to move into the true top tier of a strong draft.

6. Aaron Gordon, PF/SF, Arizona (Previous Rank: 19): Defensively, Aaron Gordon has sold me over the last few weeks. While his offense may be a work in progress for a while, his athleticism and effort should make him a solid defender from the start and working hard should give him enough opportunities in transition and broken plays to justify a high pick.

7. Andrew Harrison, PG, Kentucky (Previous Rank: 5): Like Exum, Andrew Harrison has the potential to be the primary ballhandler for a team with the capability of defending NBA shooting guards. Most of his freshman campaign has been frustrating because he has not used his considerable physical advantages on overmatched opponents and seems better at creating for himself than others. That said, his potential cannot be taught or denied so he stays up for now.

8. Noah Vonleh, PF/C, Indiana (Previous Rank: 14): The benefit of reaching 6’9.75” with a 7’4” wingspan more than six months ago is that many of the concerns about his perimeter game have faded away since Vonleh will not need to play out there. He has done a nice job so far at Indiana, averaging 12 and 10 with about a block and steal per game. Add in a high ceiling and you have an interesting prospect, especially if he can grow into some center minutes.

9. Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky (Previous Rank: 16): Blocking more than four shots a game, Cauley-Stein makes me feel more and more like he will at least be an impactful defensive player off the bench down the road. If you were to give me DeAndre Jordan as a draft prospect right now with the possibility of fixing his bad habits, he would be just around here. While Willie does not reach those lofty heights as an athlete he should not be far off and I’m excited to see what he can become.

10. Mario Hezonja, SG/SF, Croatia (Previous Rank: 7): A fascinating young talent that I compare to J.R. Smith for both the positives and negatives even though the athleticism is not at the same level. Hezonia has the ability to score all over the court and has a respectable handle for a swingman but does not play as well on defense or in a team offense as he should considering his athletic gifts and skill set.  Fortunately, those flaws can be more easily corrected than issues like height or athleticism and Hezonja should be able to contribute while he figures it all out.

11. James Young, SF, Kentucky (Previous Rank: 13): If Young can stay with opposing SG’s, he could become an incredibly versatile and useful piece in the pros. His 6’11” wingspan (as of his 17th birthday) makes him a fine small forward, but a potential bully against shooting guards. His jumper has not looked as strong as hoped early on for Kentucky but I like what he can do on both ends of the floor. With some coaching, he could end up being a fun complementary wing.

12. Nikola Milutinov, C, Serbia (Previous Rank: 10): I really liked what I saw out of him in the FIBA Under 19 tournament where Serbia got a surprising silver medal. An absolute project to be sure but one with the potential to be a quality player.

13. Marcus Smart, PG/SG, Oklahoma State (Previous Rank: 20): Despite still having some concerns with his ability to defend league average point guards, Smart has shown that he should be able to produce even against high-quality opposition. His game does look better than last year and I have not seen anything to warrant long-term concern about his jumper even though it will take time.

14. Semaj Christon, PG, Xavier (Previous Rank: 9): Averaging only four assists and 2.5 turnovers per game so far, Christon needs to show some more game to stay at his lofty pre-season place in the rankings. For now, he stays on the list due to his physical potential.

15. Mitch McGary, C/PF, Michigan (Previous Rank: 15): Like so many players in previous draft classes, McGary’s value depends on what positions he can handle defensively as a professional. He seems a little small for a true center right now and at 21 it’s not like we can expect a growth spurt though it certainly could come. Despite that, his motor may help allow him to defend C’s that are less physically imposing. Offensively, I want to see more depth and variety to his game and he will get opportunities to show it since Trey Burke will not be feeding Mitch the ball this season. His back issue is scary of course and that drops him down a little bit.

16. Adreian Payne, PF/C, Michigan State (Previous Rank: NR): While he would need to beat the odds in a few different ways, Payne could end up being a nice piece for an NBA team that can contribute on both ends of the floor. He will turn 23 before the draft and has lungs too small for his body but can embrace a different but important role immediately and become a factor on a great team. The ability to play some minutes at Center would greatly improve his value to any team.

17. Zach LaVine, SG/PG, UCLA (Previous Rank: NR): Let’s get this out of the way at the outset coming from someone who has watched a ton of both of them at the same age: Zach LaVine is not the next Russell Westbrook in any way, shape, or form. While a good athlete who can potentially defend both guard positions in the pros, he does not exude that true special athletic ability or handle that has made Westbrook one of the best players in the league. He will be better off the ball than on it in the NBA, but can embrace that role and become a better and more versatile defender.

18. Glenn Robinson III, SF, Michigan (Previous Rank: 8): The two defining questions with the son of the Big Dog are whether he can be a true stopper at the NBA level and whether he can score enough for other teams to pay attention. If both of those become yeses, Glenn III has the potential to be a solid starter or even an All-Star. If both are no he may be a low-end rotation player. He likely ends up in the middle ground and becomes a useful piece for a good team but not indispensable.

19. Dario Saric, PF, Croatia (Previous Rank: NR): The sheer potential of having a primary ballhandler at his height makes him an absolutely fascinating prospect. His defensive position (if he has one) remains an uncertainty and his rebounding should get worse as he wrangles with NBA-caliber athletes but his offensive talent could make him worth it.

20. Jahii Carson, PG, Arizona State (Previous Rank: NR): As a Pac-12 alum and fan, Carson has been on my radar since last season due to his combination of athleticism and skill. Even if his size limits him to backup duties since his shooting does not make him a dominant offensive force, he still has a place in the league and could become much, much more than a valued role player.

Others considered: Montrezl Harrell (PF, Lousiville), Aaron Harrison (SG, Kentucky), Jabari Bird (SG, Cal), and Wayne Selden (SG, Kansas)