Welcome to the newest version of this year’s Lottery Lowdown. Here are links from the versions released in November and December.

To make sure everyone starts at the same place, the lottery covers the first 14 picks of the first round and represents the 14 teams that did not make the playoffs that season. Naturally, these picks can be traded just like any other selections so the teams choosing can absolutely be ones who made the postseason.

The Teams: Who has What

We know the order now:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers
2. Milwaukee Bucks
3. Philadelphia 76ers
4. Orlando Magic
5. Utah Jazz
6. Boston Celtics
7. Los Angeles Lakers
8. Sacramento Kings
9. Charlotte Hornets (via Detroit)
10. Philadelphia (via New Orleans)
11. Denver Nuggets (via New York)
12. Orlando (via Denver)
13. Minnesota Timberwolves
14. Phoenix Suns

The Player Pool: On Draft Quality

One of the biggest debate points in any draft comes from assessing the quality of a given draft or draft class. While there are no set standards, I wanted to lay out how I evaluate it with the hope that it has a positive impact on the quality of these discussions.

To me, there are three different ways that a certain draft can be strong or weak and remember that these are looking at the long-term outcomes for these players rather than their immediate impact:

1. Number of likely stars – An unclear line but I think perennial All-Star who could be the best player on a championship team in the right circumstances.

 2. Number of likely starters – More self-explanatory, though I should mention that I mean this as players who are starter quality not who actually gets starts. Those of you who are fans of the dregs of the league should understand this difference pretty easily.

3. Number of likely long-term NBA players – I have never had a perfect feel for which made for the better qualifier between this and likely long-term rotation players but they largely capture the same individuals when you work it out.

The first two tiers matter substantially more in terms of both public perception and actual impact on the league but all three warrant consideration when discussing the quality of a draft. Any draft that misses on all three measures (which last year’s did) should be considered a bad one and checking one of the first two boxes or the third with reasonable marks in the first two should be seen as solid. Two of the three being strong means a good to great draft depending on how weak the third is and hitting all of the marks means what you would expect.

This season of college hoops has definitely changed a few of these factors so far. While there are plenty of players with star potential, the use of “likely” in front of star makes a series of players harder sells. Even quality talents like Joel Embiid and Andrew Wiggins have reasonable outcomes that leave them as valued players in the league for a long time but short of this bar. I would say they are alright here but not enough to make it a firm yes.

The likely starter group explains why this class deserves the league’s attention. While this draft contains plenty of uncertain commodities, there could be an absolute ton of quality players in 2014. While last year’s lottery had numerous non-starter rotation players, teams in the top fourteen this summer should consider ending up with a player below starter quality a disappointment. This class should have more incredibly likely starters than last year had fringe starters and a simply massive group of players who could potentially reach that level.

Preliminary Player Rankings of Draft-Eligible Players

Here is where the players stand as of now.

[NOTE: I include all draft-eligible players regardless of their likelihood to declare for the 2014 Draft. This provides a better measuring stick for everyone and also explains why the list runs to 19 rather than 14.]

1 .Joel Embiid, C, Kansas (Previous Rank: 2)- About a month ago, I was fiddling around with MyGM mode in 2K14 and ended up having the No. 1 pick with the Bucks. Even though they have Larry Sanders on a big contract, I thought long and hard about what player is most likely to produce the “Why didn’t they draft him?” questions five and ten years from now and could not take anyone other than Embiid even in a simulation. I would be absolutely terrified to pass on Embiid because his combination of size, talent, and skill are hard to come by for a true Center. It might take Embiid longer than expected to really make an impact since he is more raw than some think but he should get there in time.

Good Fits: Cleveland, Philadelphia, everywhere with someone to run the offense

Bad Fits: Milwaukee (lack of a PG)

2. Andrew Wiggins, SF, Kansas (Previous Rank: 1)- In the last decade-plus, there has only been one perimeter player that I felt had the real possibility of being a major difference-maker on both ends of the floor even just talking about pure ceilings rather than focusing on the likelihood of getting there. While Wiggins is not near the class of LeBron James as a prospect, that potential shows just how intriguing he can be as a professional. If Wiggins can embrace his athleticism and stop going for the fancy move with less contact over the impact play, he could be a fascinating force on great teams.

Good Fits: Cleveland, Orlando

Bad Fits: Milwaukee (for now)

3. Dante Exum, PG/SG, Australia (Previous Rank: 3)- I like to think of Exum as a Swiss Army knife guard, meaning he can do a lot of different things on the court depending on what his team needs. While I’d like to see his jumper improve and it may in the near term with coaching and development, the fact that Exum can defend both guard positions and play both on and off the ball makes him a nice building block for good and bad teams alike.

Good Fits: Cleveland, LA Lakers

Bad Fits: Orlando, Philadelphia

4. Jabari Parker, PF/SF, Duke (Previous Rank: 5)- While many people think of Jabari as an NBA small forward, I continue to see him as a transformational four. He has the length to defend most PF’s and his offensive game would be lethal against larger players that do not spend much time guarding guys with good handles and a reliable jumper. Play Parker with a rim protector and someone to initiate the offense and you could have a major difference-maker.

Good Fits: Philadelphia, Utah, Milwaukee

Bad Fits: Boston, Orlando (for now)

5. Noah Vonleh, PF/C, Indiana (Previous Rank: 8)- As someone who has followed Vonleh since his high school days, it proves hard to think of a player in recent years other than Anthony Davis who has benefitted more from growth spurts. As perimeter prospect then, Vonleh’s shaky handle and jumper were downsides. At 6’8” without shoes with a 7’4”+ wingspan, those become above average for the power forward position and downright scary for a center. He also has a great motor and insanely large hands, factors that should help him in the NBA. As DraftExpress noted, Vonleh measured out similarly to Derrick Favors who has settled in as an NBA center. If Vonleh can play even some minutes at the most valuable position in the league, his usefulness to a team skyrockets and his shooting (while slightly overrated at present since people are looking at the percentage on threes without considering how few he took) becomes a very unusual asset.

Good Fits: Philadelphia, Utah, Memphis 

Bad Fits: Boston, Sacramento, Minnesota

6. James Young, SG/SF, Kentucky (Previous Rank: 11)- There appear to be a few misconceptions about why James Young could be a dangerous NBA player. Standing at 6’6”+ in shoes with a 7’ wingspan and a 8’8” standing reach makes him a fine small forward but a potential bully against Shooting Guards. His jumper has not looked as strong as hoped early on for Kentucky but I like what he can do on both ends of the floor. With some coaching, he could end up being a fun complementary wing. If he can stick at SG, Young benefits from being oversized at a shockingly weak position in the league right now and his ability to defend SF’s makes him a nice fit with versatile swingmen who are elite scorers or defenders.

Good Fits: OKC, Chicago, Sacramento, whoever ends up with Kevin Durant in 2016

Bad Fits: Charlotte, LA Lakers (for now)

7. Julius Randle, PF, Kentucky (Previous Rank: 4)- While Randle has not done much to hurt his stock, time has allowed me to contemplate the consequences of him not becoming an elite player at his position. Non-elite power forwards who cannot guard Centers are both less valuable on the court and more available than any other position. After all, look at the contract that a young, talented PF like Paul Millsap signed last summer. While Randle has a respectable chance of becoming a high-end player, he has not shown me enough to be sure that he will dominate the athletes he will find in the NBA.

Good Fits: Denver, Atlanta

Bad Fits: Boston, Philadelphia, Sacramento

8. Adreian Payne, PF/C, Michigan State (Previous Rank: 16)- While Payne will get downgraded because he will be 23 at the draft and has lungs that are too small for his body, he stands out since he can take on an important role immediately and become a factor on a great team for the entirety of the time he will be under team control. Potentially logging some minutes at center would greatly improve his value to any team, especially with the range on his jumper.

Good Fits: Chicago, Atlanta, Phoenix

Bad Fits: Boston, Philadelphia

9. Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky (Previous Rank: 9)- Blocking almost three shots a game, Cauley-Stein makes me feel more and more like he will at least be an impactful defensive player down the road whether he starts or comes off the bench. If you were to give me DeAndre Jordan as a draft prospect right now with the possibility of fixing his bad habits, he would be a few spots above this so this spot properly balances the risk and the extreme value of a rim-protecting center. While Cauley-Stein does not reach Jordan’s lofty heights as an athlete, he should not be far off and I am excited to see what he can become.

10. Mario Hezonja, SG/SF, Croatia (Previous Rank: 10)- A fascinating young talent that I compare to J.R. Smith for both the positives and negatives even though the athleticism is not at the same level. Mario has the ability to score all over the court and has a respectable handle for a swingman but does not play as well on defense or in a team offense as he should considering his athletic gifts and skill set.  Fortunately, those flaws can be more easily corrected than issues like height or athleticism and Hezonja should be able to contribute while he figures it all out.

11. Aaron Gordon, PF/SF, Arizona (Previous Rank: 6)- I do not love the comparisons to Shawn Marion and Andrei Kirilenko because Gordon has a long way to go before matching their all-around contributions. His effort and athleticism are nice but the NBA will continue to ask more offensively of their threes and fours, forcing Gordon to grow his game on both ends to establish a niche as even a starter in the league. That said, he certainly can get there.

Good Fits: Phoenix, Sacramento, Denver

Bad Fits: Charlotte, Philadelphia,

12. Zach LaVine, SG/PG, UCLA (Previous Rank: 17)- Let’s get this out of the way at the outset coming from someone who has watched a ton of both of them at the same age: Zach LaVine is not the next Russell Westbrook in any way, shape or form. While a good athlete who can potentially defend both guard positions in the pros, he does not exude that true special athletic ability or handle that has made Russ one of the best players in the league. LaVine can be a force in transition and as a secondary scorer who should be able to defend his position in time. If he can grow into something more than that, he could be one of the best players in a deep class.

Good Fits: Wherever Kevin Love ends up, San Antonio, OKC, Chicago, Phoenix

Bad Fits: Orlando, LA Lakers

13. Marcus Smart, PG/SG, Oklahoma State (Previous Rank: 13)- There are few players that I have wavered on over their time as a draft prospect more than Marcus Smart. His fire and competitiveness are great and he should have the length to guard either guard position, at least for stretches. I am concerned about his ability to shoot and generate separation against NBA athletes, which hurts his capacity to create for himself and others as the initiator of the offense. He has value either way since teams must have a capable ballhandler on the floor every minute but it could curtail his long-term impact on teams.

Good Fits: LA Lakers, LA Clippers

Bad Fits: Boston, Orlando, Charlotte, Philadelphia, Chicago

14. PJ Hairston, SG, Texas Legends (Previous Rank: NR)- As a long-time fan of Hariston, it was great to see him adapt so well to the D-League after what happened at North Carolina. Making 2.8 threes a game at 35.8% from the NBA line shows that he can shoot it as a pro and Hairston should make enough strides as a defender and supporting offensive player to stick. As long as you do not ask him to do too much offensively, PJ should provide plenty of value whether it comes off the bench or as the fifth starter on a quality team, the role I would prefer for him.

Good Fits: Denver, Toronto, OKC

Bad Fits: Orlando, LA Lakers

15. Andrew Harrison, SG/PG, Kentucky (Previous Rank: 7)- Like Exum, Andrew Harrison has the potential to be the primary ballhandler for a team with the capability of defending NBA shooting guards. Most of his freshman campaign has been frustrating because he has not used his considerable physical advantages on overmatched opponents and seems better at creating for himself than others. That said, his potential keeps him on the list for now.

16. Rodney Hood, SG/SF, Duke (Previous Rank: NR)- While he will not be a dominant all-around player as a professional, Rodney Hood should work out as a team’s No. 3 swingman, potentially their No. 2 with time and development. He can drill open shots and does not turn the ball over and his weakness running an offense just takes a bonus off the table rather than being a red flag. Hood’s defense needs plenty of work but I do not see a reason why sufficient improvement cannot happen by the end of his rookie contract. 

Good Fits: Orlando, Philadelphia

Bad Fits: Minnesota

17. Dario Saric, PF, Croatia (Previous Rank: 19)- I hope Saric drops a little in the draft because he simply must go to the right team and system in order to thrive. In today’s NBA, Dario profiles as a nice secondary ballhandler who can share primary duties with a second unit. There are very few players who can do that at 6’10” and Saric has shown that he can take on a greater offensive load in both league and international play over the last few years. I have no idea who he defends in the NBA and that substantially weakens his stock. If Saric can improve his three-point shot and/or improve defensively, he could become a fan-favorite and truly unique player at any level of basketball.

Good Fits: LA Clippers, Atlanta, Memphis

Bad Fits: Sacramento, Charlotte, Minnesota

18. Nik Stauskas, SG, Michigan (Previous Rank: NR)- While we all know Stauskas can shoot the crap out of the ball, he shows a more varied offensive game that shows promise in the NBA. Nik reminds me quite a bit of Klay Thompson as a prospect if you swap some of Klay’s defensive potential for ballhandling and passing. Both have trouble finishing at the rim but can absolutely annihilate open shots, making them incredibly useful supporting scorers next to quality table setters. Like PJ Hairston, it could be better to use Stauskas with the first unit to generate more open looks once he gets closer to his ceiling.

Good Fits: Chicago, Phoenix, Toronto (if they keep Lowry)

Bad Fits: Denver, Sacramento

19. Kyle Anderson, PF/SF, UCLA (Previous Rank: NR)- Another player who needs to go to the right team in the short and long terms. Ideally, he should be the primary or secondary ballhandler on offense while defending the opposing team’s Power Forward. He does not have the lateral quickness to defend most threes but possesses the length to handle non-elite fours coupled with a quality handle and solid shooting stroke for either position. The comparison to a young Boris Diaw could prove apt and Anderson has the ability to thrive similarly in the right system.

Good Fits: Golden State, Houston, Chicago, Memphis

Bad Fits: Charlotte, Minnesota, Boston

Others considered: Gary Harris (SG/PG, Michigan State), Glen Robinson III (SF, Michigan), and Tyler Ennis (PG, Syracuse)

NOTE: Jusuf Nurkic and Clint Capela were not considered because I have not seen enough of them to provide a fair evaluation.