Notes

-On Saturday, Syracuse fell to 350th in nation in three-point percentage after an 0-for-14 night from beyond the arc. The Orange are shooting just 19.8% on their threes this season.

-Connecticut’s one-point home loss to Texas isn’t the end of the world, but it is just more evidence that the American Conference is off to a terrible start. Conference RPI will still fluctuate quite a bit, but the American Conference is currently ranked 10th, behind the WCC, MVC, and MWC. (RPI is admittedly a poor measure of league strength, but Pomeroy’s rankings are still heavily weighted based on preseason expectations, and I wanted to share a metric based on this season only.)

-After a bad DePaul team forced Stanford to commit 21 turnovers on Sunday in the upset, teams are going to be using pressure defense against Stanford for the rest of the year. Chasson Randle has never been a pure PG, and teams are going to be testing his ball-handling skills the rest of the way. While I understand how head coach Johnny Dawkins wanted to ride his starters in the true road game, I’m surprised the four-star freshman PG Robert Cartwright wasn’t a larger part of the game plan against a pressing team. Cartwright played just 2 minutes.

-I had ODU as the second best team in CUSA this preseason thanks to the return of several players and the addition of a couple of key transfers. And they already upset LSU in the Paradise Jam event. Add in the revival of a CAA rivalry, and the VCU at Old Dominion game was probably a closer matchup on paper than most people realized. But sometimes the stats are still fascinating. Aaron Bacote had scored just 10 points over a four game stretch. He was ice cold. So of course against VCU he scored 31 points with near perfect shooting on the night. (He missed just two free throws.) Bacote averaged 15.5 PPG last year.

-I have nothing against South Carolina’s 6’5” Michael Carrerra. He’s one of those undersized hard-working forwards that make college basketball great. But size matters on the basketball court. And I don’t understand why 6’11” Laimonas Chatkevicious is coming off the bench and playing just 20 minutes per game given his efficiency and rebounding rate stats. With Carrera out with a concussion in the most recent game, Chatkevicious got the start and scored 17 points and had 13 rebounds. Frank Martin needs to keep him in the starting lineup.

-There were a ton of great games in the holiday tournaments and I can’t comment on them all, but here are a few thoughts on a few teams:

Great Alaska Shootout

I pegged Colorado St. as one of the teams to watch this preseason because of the large number of impact transfers on their roster. But I had two major questions heading into the year. First, who was going to emerge as the team’s primary PG? My model loved Arkansas St. transfer John Gillon because of his tremendous per-minute production and efficiency. But many seemed to think that prolific Grambling transfer Antwan Scott would win the job. As it turns out, the answer was behind door number three. Daniel Bejarano is talented enough to thrive at any position on the basketball court, 1-4. And in the early season Colorado St. has decided to put the ball in the hands of their best player.

But despite Bejarano emerging as the starting PG, in Saturday’s Great Alaska Title game, it was Gillon who provided the decisive play. Coming off the bench, Gillon was constantly able to drive and create (5 assists) and drive and get to the line (13 FTA on only 3 FGA.) It probably helped that Gillon played fewer minutes over the four day event. While UCSB’s players had played 3 games in 3 days, Gillon was fresh which may have helped him to be a step quicker. But his emergence is still a very positive long-run sign for the Rams, as Gillon is just a sophomore.

The second major question for the Rams was post-defense, and I’m not entirely sold on their ability in this area. Giving up 22 points to UCSB’s Alan Williams isn’t necessarily anything to hang your head about. But despite his prolific scoring ability, Williams is only 6’8”, and I didn’t feel like Colorado St. had anyone who could really match up with him. Tiel Daniels was too short and probably played his worst game of the season. Williams was also able to back down Stanton Kidd in the lane and shoot over him. JJ Avila might have had the size and strength to match Williams, but I’m not convinced he has the foot speed defensively. Avilla got in foul trouble guarding Williams, and he is such a vital cog on offense, that he should really be matched up against a weaker defensive player.

Were it not for a brainlock play by USCB’s Michael Bryson (fouling at mid-court in a tie-game with 5 seconds left), UCSB might have even defeated Colorado St. So improving the interior defense is a huge concern for Larry Eustachy going forward. Colorado St. can win plenty of games, but to pick up quality wins, they will have to find ways to contain Colorado’s Josh Scott, Wyoming’s Larry Nance, and San Diego St.’s imposing front-line.

Preseason NIT

The only image that remains in my head from this event is St. John’s center Chris Obekpa’s short-shorts and teammate Deangelo Harrison dribbling the ball between Obekpa’s legs in the Minnesota game. That wouldn’t have been possible if Obekpa had worn his baggy shorts down to his knees.

CBE Classic (Terrapin Watch: Week 3)

Maryland’s victory over Iowa St. certainly struck me as a surprise, not because Maryland won, but because they completely shut down a dominant Iowa St. offense.

If you just stared at the box score, you probably wouldn’t realize that Maryland freshman Michal Cekovsky has been an impact player. Cekovsky has been playing less than 30 MPG, he’s been coming off the bench, and he hasn’t been a primary scorer. But the Iowa St. game showed why a mobile 7 footer is so devastating. The Cyclones were ice cold from the perimeter. As with any good offensive team, they should have found other ways to score if the long jumpers weren’t falling. But what caused such a horrible night for Iowa St. was that whenever they penetrated, Cekovsky was floating over for help defense. Cekovsky’s long arms kept Iowa St. from getting easy baskets inside the arc.

The impressive part about Maryland’s win was that they did it without Evan Smotrycz who returned a few days later. In other words, we may not have seen Maryland in peak form yet.

Of course, we still won’t see the peak rotation for a few weeks. Dez Wells broke his wrist and is out for a month and Smotrycz probably won’t be 100% for a few more games. That’s going to make it a tall task to beat Virginia in the Big Ten – ACC challenge. But Maryland is starting to look like the kind of team that can shut down a quality opponent in March.

Barclays Center Classic

Virginia may have won, but after trailing a terrible Rutgers team at half-time, this tournament just reminded us of the dangers of the Cavalier’s slow pace. By shortening the game, Virginia opens up the possibility of being upset by a vastly inferior team.

Maui Invitational

One of the things I love about teams playing three games in three days is that you get to see players at their best and at their worst. Purdue’s AJ Hammons was outplayed by backup Isaac Haas in the opening round loss to Kansas St. leading people to question whether he would ever live up to his potential. Two days later against BYU, Hammons hit the game-winner in OT.

Battle 4 Atlantis

Butler had a fantastic weekend. Florida’s offense is broken. North Carolina is still surprisingly suspect on the boards, a problem that plagued the team last year despite North Carolina’s great team height. UCLA has a great core, but no depth. Oklahoma is good, but not elite yet. Wisconsin is elite.

I get the storylines for most teams. But the one team I can’t figure out is the Georgetown Hoyas. Did Georgetown have a good weekend or a bad weekend in this event? On the one hand, they went 1-2 and lost to a Butler team expected to finish near the bottom of the Big East. And if Florida’s offense doesn’t improve, that win might not be worth as much at the end of the year. Moreover, that win over Florida came on a difficult last-minute buzzer beater. It wasn’t terribly convincing.

On the other hand, a close loss to Wisconsin shows the Hoyas have potential. And in that game against Florida, the Gators had Dorian Finney-Smith and Eli Carter back, with Finney-Smith playing well. So we probably shouldn’t discount that win too much.

Moreover, the close win against Florida wasn’t just about D’vauntes Smith-Rivera’s heroic jumper. LJ Peak’s block at the end of regulation, and Paul White and Peak’s late threes were further evidence that Georgetown’s freshman class is playing better than where it was ranked out of high school. (The play against Florida where Jabril Trawick pump-faked at the three point line and drove past four Gators might also end up on the team’s season-ending highlight reel.)

I think the answer is that the Hoyas have a lot more potential than I thought in October, but this weekend probably wasn’t great for their resume.

Cancun Challenge/ Corpus Christi Classic/MGM Grand Main Event

Sometimes I’m a sucker for matchups between bad teams in power conferences. I would have loved to see Northwestern face Virginia Tech in the Cancun Challenge, but Northern Iowa spoiled the party by beating them both easily and denying the matchup.

At Corpus Christi, TCU did get to play Mississippi St. And they showed that without the injuries that devastated the team last year, they are much more competitive.

But Oregon St. against Auburn at the MGM Event amused me the most. Despite the fact that Oregon St. has eight scholarship players, and no clear go-to-scorers, they hung with Auburn for 40 minutes. And when Langston Morris-Walker made a three to give Oregon St. a lead late in the game, you could almost feel the air come out of the sails of the Auburn fans believing in Bruce Pearl magic. Auburn hung on to win, but it sure felt like a gut-punching loss because it suggested that maybe Pearl can’t quiet work miracles with the roster he inherited. On the positive side, Antoine Mason may return soon and Trayvon Reed will presumably be eligible eventually.

Emerald Coast Classic

What has gotten into Ole Miss guard Ladarius White? I thought with all the transfers coming in that he might lose his spot in the rotation. After all, his ORtg the last three years has been 91, 95, and 95. But somehow White is shooting 10 for 20 from three in the early season, raised his ORtg to 120, and he has seen his PPG increase by 5.

But Cincinnati isn’t going to win many games where they force six turnovers, and that’s all they forced in the loss to Ole Miss. Cincinnati’s offense is a huge work in progress at this point, and if they can’t rattle teams and get some easy buckets in transition, this won’t be their only ugly game this year.

Paradise Jam

I’ve certainly heard people make the argument that the departure of Anthony Hickey was addition by subtraction for LSU. The idea seemed to be that Hickey was too interested in his own offense rather than getting the ball to LSU’s talented post players. I never quite believed that.

This year, I’m still looking for evidence that the complimentary players are doing a better job getting the ball in the paint. Last year Anthony Hickey, Andre Stringer, and Shavon Coleman’s assist rates were 21%, 19%, and 14% respectively. This year Josh Gray, Keith Hornsby, and Tim Quarterman’s assist rates are 23%, 11%, and 18% so far. Last year Hickey, Stringer, and Coleman used 17%, 22%, and 20% of the shots when on the floor. This year Gray, Hornsby, and Quarterman’s shot percentages are 18%, 22%, and 15%.

You could argue this isn’t about assist rates or shot percentages, but it is about making sure the offense takes the best shot in crunch time. But after losing by 9 and 3 in the Virgin Islands, it isn’t clear that the offense is doing a better job executing and winning close games. You can blame last year’s guards all you want, but so far this season just feels like more of the same.