One of the frustrating things about the margin-of-victory rankings this time of year is that they try to rank all the teams. If a team has played only cupcakes, the Pomeroy and Sagarin rankings will still try to figure out, based on whether the team won by 10, 20, or 30 points, how good that team is.

Instead when I evaluate teams this time of year, I like to place teams in different buckets. Bucket one includes the teams that have played well against good teams. Bucket two includes the teams that have played poorly against good teams. And bucket three includes the teams that have played only cupcakes. For bucket three, I would prefer not to rank those teams at all. I put those teams in the category of, "Let's wait and see before we draw any conclusions."

With that inspiration, today I'm presenting a revised version of the Pomeroy Rankings. I recreate his rankings, but I only include the data from two types of games:

-Wins against teams ranked 1-80 in Pomeroy's Dec. 24th rankings AND

-All losses

I essentially look to see how teams have performed against real competition. (I started by dropping all opponents ranked 101 or higher, but a few teams scheduled heavily in the 81-100 range, and those games weren't that compelling to me. So on review, I'm only counting games against teams 1-80. Additionally, if a team loses to a team ranked above 80th, that still factors into my evaluation of the team. I don't want Arizona to get an advantage for losing to a team like UNLV that is outside the Top 80.)

Too Early to Evaluate

Team

Adj Off

Adj Def

W

L

Pyth

Louisville

113.1

81.2

3

0

0.979

Washington

110.6

86.5

3

0

0.944

St. John's

107.3

84.2

2

1

0.942

West Virginia

113.0

91.2

2

1

0.921

Northern Iowa

117.3

95.1

2

1

0.918

Wyoming

98.9

81.9

1

2

0.897

Colorado St.

111.0

94.9

3

0

0.858

Minnesota

102.1

91.1

1

2

0.787

LSU

97.3

92.2

1

2

0.651

Seton Hall

96.3

91.7

1

2

0.635

Vanderbilt

108.8

106.3

0

3

0.567

Dayton

94.2

92.9

1

2

0.538

Rhode Island

99.3

100.3

0

3

0.471

Boise St.

95.1

97.3

0

3

0.437


Six of the top seven teams in this table are ranked. And in fairness, they've often accomplished something. St. John's has wins over Minnesota, at Syracuse, and a close loss to Gonzaga. Washington has wins over Oklahoma and San Diego St. But I need to see a lot more before I draw conclusions about any of these teams.

Even Fewer Games Against Quality Opponents

Team

Adj Off

Adj Def

W

L

Pyth

TCU

108.9

80.1

1

0

0.971

Notre Dame

128.4

113.6

1

1

0.804

Ohio St.

104.3

93.2

0

2

0.785

Davidson

108.9

111.7

0

1

0.429

Harvard

69.4

99.5

0

2

0.016

Ohio St.'s ranking is entirely based on preseason expectations and blowouts of cupcakes. They don't have any quality wins yet. TCU looked great in their win against Ole Miss, but it was only one game.

Dominant Against Good Teams

Team

Adj Off

Adj Def

W

L

Pyth

Virginia

129.2

73.7

4

0

0.998

Kentucky

121.5

71.0

5

0

0.998

Duke

123.7

87.3

5

0

0.982

Villanova

120.3

86.8

5

0

0.977

Wisconsin

127.1

93.0

5

1

0.973

Gonzaga

124.2

93.2

4

1

0.965

Iowa St.

120.4

92.5

4

1

0.954

Baylor

115.8

89.8

5

1

0.949

Wichita St.

116.5

92.1

4

1

0.937

North Carolina

113.1

90.3

4

3

0.929

Maryland

120.3

96.7

3

1

0.925

Texas

106.0

85.4

3

2

0.923

Oklahoma

105.2

85.6

3

3

0.915

Arizona

109.2

88.9

5

1

0.914

Utah

103.9

88.6

2

2

0.861

I'm certainly not saying that this alternative version of the rankings is perfect. Virginia is a little high because of their blowout win against a good Harvard squad. But every one of these teams is ranked in the polls, and they deserve to be.

-Baylor is a little bit of an unknown, even in this group. They have five wins against Top 80 squads, but no wins against the truly elite yet.

-North Carolina has played seven games against Top 80 opponents. They may only be 4-3 in those games, but they've certainly challenged themselves.

Might be playing like a tournament team, but not a ranked team:

Team

Adj Off

Adj Def

W

L

Pyth

South Carolina

102.1

88.3

1

3

0.843

VCU

111.8

96.7

3

3

0.842

San Diego St.

103.0

89.3

3

3

0.838

Georgia

107.3

93.0

2

3

0.837

Indiana

118.9

103.4

3

2

0.833

SMU

104.0

90.5

2

3

0.832

Georgetown

109.2

95.3

1

3

0.826

Arkansas

113.4

99.2

2

2

0.823

California

98.4

87.0

2

2

0.806

Connecticut

99.4

87.9

1

4

0.805

Xavier

115.0

101.9

2

3

0.802

Oklahoma St.

102.3

91.0

2

2

0.794

Kansas

106.0

94.7

5

2

0.785

-VCU and San Diego St. will probably be ranked again eventually.

-South Carolina is a weird outlier. They look good here because they lost by 5 points or less to Akron, Charlotte, and Baylor, and they absolutely crushed Oklahoma St. But we really need to see more of that team.

-SMU will probably play better now that Markus Kennedy is eligible.

-Kansas has five quality wins at this point, but it is worth noting that Kansas is the luckiest team in the Top 100 according to Kenpom.com. When Kansas has lost, they've been blown out. And when they've beaten good teams, it has usually been very close. The Jayhawks overall performance suggests that they should have one or two more losses.

Shaky in this Year's Key Moments

Team

Adj Off

Adj Def

W

L

Pyth

Alabama

110.8

99.8

1

3

0.768

Georgia St.

99.5

90.0

1

3

0.762

Temple

100.1

90.8

2

4

0.755

Old Dominion

98.3

89.3

3

1

0.750

UTEP

100.8

92.1

1

4

0.738

BYU

110.3

101.2

1

3

0.729

Stanford

108.5

99.8

1

3

0.723

Butler

97.9

90.3

2

3

0.717

Mississippi

107.8

99.9

3

3

0.706

Florida

103.6

96.0

0

4

0.706

Michigan St.

108.7

101.1

0

4

0.697

NC State

104.2

97.0

2

3

0.696

St. F. Austin

103.9

96.8

1

3

0.692

Illinois

101.2

94.5

1

3

0.688

Pittsburgh

116.3

109.2

1

3

0.675

-Temple might be a different team now that Jesse Morgan and Devin Coleman are eligible. And I suspect Pittsburgh will eventually start playing better now that Cameron Wright is healthy.

-Old Dominion is actually 3-0 against the Top 80, but they have a mysterious 19 point loss to Illinois St. that has to factor into their rating.

-Florida and Michigan St. were ranked in the preseason, but neither team has a win against a team in the Pomeroy Top 100 right now.

Unimpressive

Team

Adj Off

Adj Def

W

L

Pyth

Syracuse

104.0

98.0

2

4

0.664

Iowa

97.8

92.7

1

4

0.651

Providence

103.4

98.0

3

3

0.648

Oregon

104.2

100.2

1

3

0.613

Louisiana Tech

105.6

102.3

0

4

0.590

Arizona St.

108.4

105.0

0

5

0.589

Texas A&M

105.2

101.9

1

3

0.589

G. Washington

92.9

90.4

1

3

0.575

Kansas St.

104.1

102.2

1

4

0.552

Michigan

98.5

97.1

2

5

0.541

Cincinnati

94.9

94.9

1

3

0.500

Green Bay

96.5

96.5

1

3

0.499

Creighton

99.9

100.5

1

4

0.485

Tulsa

104.0

106.7

1

4

0.426

Miami FL

101.2

104.7

2

3

0.405

Colorado

89.8

94.4

0

4

0.360

UCLA

94.1

101.7

0

4

0.291

Memphis

86.1

99.5

0

4

0.159

All of the teams in this last group are ranked in the Top 80 of the Pomeroy rankings. But these teams are only ranked in the Top 80 because his rankings still incorporate preseason expectations, or because these teams have been beating up on cupcakes. These teams all have losses to bad teams or have done poorly in their key games.

-Miami has some quality wins, but they are being punished for the 28 point home loss to Eastern Kentucky.

-Providence is probably the most interesting case here.  They were brilliant against Miami FL, Rhode Island, and Notre Dame, and horrible against Kentucky, Boston College, and Brown. I'd personally give them a little more credit for the Florida St. and UMass games, but those teams haven't done much so far and aren't currently in the Top 80.

-Colorado, UCLA, and Memphis have been flat-out terrible against quality competition this year.