RSCI Freshmen Ranked 1-20

Today I finish my series looking back at how the RSCI Top 100 freshmen have performed. Here was a numeric look at the freshmen ranked 61st-100th, the freshmen ranked 41st-60th, and the freshmen ranked 21st to 40th.

RSCI

Player

Team

PPG

ORtg

Pct Poss

MPG

Other

1

Jahlil Okafor

Duke

17.9

117

28

31

38 Blocks

3

Stanley Johnson

Arizona

14.2

109

27

28

39 Steals

4

Cliff Alexander

Kansas

7.4

115

21

18

36 Blocks

5

Karl Towns

Kentucky

9.2

120

23

20

64 Blocks

6

Myles Turner

Texas

11.3

115

24

23

74 Blocks

7

Tyus Jones

Duke

11.7

125

20

32

29% Ast%

8

Kelly Oubre

Kansas

8.4

112

21

19

28 Steals

The top players have all been very efficient on offense and have made key contributions on defense too. Kelly Oubre’s PPG are low, but that is largely about the first seven or so games of the year. Since then, his role on the Jayhawks has increased. The bigger story is Cliff Alexander’s limited minutes despite seemingly great per minute production. Alexander has played a total of 17 minutes in the last two games and scored a total of two points for Kansas in those games.

If you haven’t read this piece by Sam Vecenie, go read it now. I know Kansas’ Jamari Traylor is incredibly strong physically. And Traylor also seems to have good defensive instincts. But, does Kansas really plan to play the key moments of its season with Traylor on the floor instead of Alexander? Can Kansas afford to play Traylor who is a much worse defensive rebounder, and much more turnover prone? Bill Self has forgotten more about coaching than we’ll ever know, but it sure seems like Cliff Alexander is one of the most under-used players in the nation.

-The Arizona vs UCLA game on Saturday was hardly a showcase for either Stanley Johnson or UCLA’s Kevon Looney (next table). Looney at least hit a couple of perimeter jumpers, but with Looney and most of UCLA’s frontline fouling out, Arizona simply won the battle of attrition. The play where Looney fouled out by falling backward into TJ McConnell was probably a good metaphor for the game. Stanley Johnson was just 1 of 9 from the floor. And following a 6 TO game against USC, Johnson is officially in a mini- slump. Still, that was just a weird game. How often is Dusan Ristic going to be the star? Arizona has had very few bad offensive games in Pac-12 play this year. And Johnson has very much lived up to his impressive amount of hype.

-Watching Kentucky’s win against Auburn on Saturday, it felt like I was watching a video game. Steal – Dunk. Steal – Dunk. Basketball is not supposed to be this easy. Sean Farnham, “Every time I start to tell a story, Kentucky interrupts me with another monster dunk.” Karl Towns actually has the highest block rate among all freshmen. Like all of Kentucky’s stats, Towns block counting stats are deflated by the platoon system, but if he played as many minutes as Myles Turner, he would have more blocks.

-Any time a Texas player is listed in a table, it is impossible not to talk about the team’s swoon. The Longhorns have lost their last six games against NCAA tournament teams. But it bothers me when people blame the swoon on Myles Turner. Yes, Texas could have used a star guard over a star center. But I disagree with the premise that Turner hasn’t made Texas better. The Longhorn’s 2PT FG% defense has improved from 42.9% last year to a ridiculous 37.4% this season, best in the nation. Texas interior defense has reached another level, and Turner is a big part of that.

And the Longhorn problems can’t really be thrown at Turner’s feet. First, Texas defensive rebounding has fallen off in Big 12 play, but I don’t see how you can blame that on Turner. He is the team’s best defensive rebounder and he grabbed 19 defensive boards in his non-starter minutes in the last two losses.

The bigger problem is that the Longhorns are second to last in the NCAA in turnovers forced. Off-guard Demarcus Holland made his reputation as a great defender who forced turnovers last year, but this year his steal rate has plummeted. Meanwhile, none of the forwards have proved particularly adept at grabbing deflections. Texas has the size and interior defense of Kentucky and Arizona, but their defense isn’t in the Top 5 because of those lack of turnovers. More than anything, the Longhorn guards just need to take more chances, and have faith that the great interior defense will bail the guards out if something doesn’t work.

The other criticism is that Turner has only had big offensive games against weak opponents. But that’s true of a lot of freshmen. Karl-Anthony Towns was just 2 of 5 for 10 points against Texas. Towns had an ORtg of just 93 against Providence’s 7 foot frontline. Towns had an ORtg of just 90 against Louisville’s strong defense. Yes, Towns has been on fire for the last month, but it isn’t clear that Kentucky has faced anyone at their level in that time period.

My point is not to knock Towns, who may very well have reached another level. My point is simply that lots of players play worse when the level of competition increases, including fabulous freshmen. That is perhaps why Jahlil Okafor and Tyus Jones performances against North Carolina last week were so special. In a game where every possession mattered, they absolutely delivered.

And my point is that Myles Turner absolutely has made Texas better. He has the best hands on a turnover-prone offense. He has real offensive skill. Admittedly, he hasn’t been able to single-handedly end his team’s swoon. But Turner is a quality player.

RSCI

Player

Team

PPG

ORtg

Pct Poss

MPG

Other

9

Justin Jackson

N. Carolina

9.6

111

19

26

 

10

Rashad Vaughn

UNLV

17.8

102

28

32

54 Threes

11

Kevon Looney

UCLA

12.4

111

21

32

35 Stl, 29 Blk

12

Trey Lyles

Kentucky

7.5

111

20

22

 

13

Justise Winslow

Duke

11.9

108

22

28

31 Threes

14

Isaiah Whitehead

Seton Hall

12.8

92

31

27

27% Ast%

15

Theo Pinson

N. Carolina

3.3

105

15

15

 

-It is hard for me to believe that Duke’s Justise Winslow was rated below North Carolina’s Justin Jackson in most preseason rankings. Yes, Jackson blew up in the McDonald’s All-American game. But in terms of being an all-around wing player, Winslow does almost everything better today. First, Winslow is a better shooter. He’s made 38% of his threes, while Jackson has made just 21% of his long range shots. Second, Winslow has been a more aggressive offensive player when on the floor. And more importantly, while Winslow can defend a number of positions, Jackson doesn’t have the physical strength to be a lock-down defender inside. Winslow has proven capable of playing a whole game at the 4 defensively, but also capable of guarding a player as quick as Marcus Paige.  Winslow has more steals and blocks, and a much better defensive rebounding rate. And that defensive rebounding rate is a real issue for Jackson, because he plays on a North Carolina team that has been weak on the defensive boards. Jackson has a little more height, so perhaps he still has potential. But right now, Winslow is the better player, hands down.

-The interesting question for me might be where Trey Lyles falls. According to all the per-possession stats (steal rate, block rate, three point percentage), Lyles is inferior to Jackson and Winslow. But Lyles has become a remarkably reliable mid-range shooter. And he’s filled a pretty vital role on Kentucky because of his quickness and ability to thrive while guarding smaller players. Honestly, wing players are often some of the most inefficient in college basketball because the stats just don’t value what they do. But Winslow, Jackson, and Lyles are a truly remarkable group.

-Isaiah Whitehead hasn’t been the same player since returning from injury. Whether because of the lack of practice, the lack of continuity with teammates, or simply the improved competition in the Big East, he’s shooting just 30% from deep in his last six games, all Seton Hall losses.

-North Carolina’s Theo Pinson, even before the injuries, mostly saw his playing time blocked by Justin Jackson and JP Tokoto, so I don’t classify him as a bust like some other elite players. He is a bit like Dakari Johnson last year. I suspect when Pinson gets more minutes, he will still be a star. In our preseason SI projections, we projected Pinson as the lowest scoring player in the Top 20, so his lack of PPG was not a big surprise to us.

RSCI

Player

Team

PPG

ORtg

Pct Poss

MPG

Other

16

D'Angelo Russell

Ohio St.

19.0

118

29

33

74 Threes, 31% Ast%, 44 Stls

17

Daniel Hamilton

Connecticut

10.6

93

25

31

23% DR%, 25% Ast%, 30 Stls

18

Tyler Ulis

Kentucky

5.4

122

15

22

29% Ast%

19

Chris McCullough

Syracuse

9.3

93

21

28

33 Blocks

19*

Isaac Hamilton

UCLA

10.0

94

19

34

44 Threes

T-20

Devin Robinson

Florida

6.1

93

21

19

 

T-20

James Blackmon

Indiana

16.1

117

24

30

61 Threes

-In those same SI projections, we projected Russell as the fourth highest scoring freshmen despite being ranked 16th by the recruiting services. Obviously, we didn’t go far enough with our enthusiasm for the Ohio St. guard. What is remarkable, as the extended notes to the right indicate, is that Russell has thrived in just about every category. He’s made threes, he’s passed the ball well, and he’s been a lock-down defender. His game against Michigan on Sunday was his worst ORtg in Big Ten play. Russell got 16 points, but it took 15 shots and 5 turnovers to get there. But that shouldn’t take away from a remarkable season.

-Daniel Hamilton hasn’t been efficient, but he has still been a stat-sheet stuffer because of his rebounds and assists (which are very high for a player who isn’t the primary ball-handler). This week Hamilton had 25 points and 7 assists against Memphis and followed that up with 9 assists against Tulane. He still needs to work on his turnovers and shooting percentages, but Hamilton looks like the type of player who will be a star next year.

-Chris McCullough wasn’t super-efficient before he went down, but Syracuse still misses him. The splits show that Syracuse has played worse without its star freshman in the lineup.

-I know Isaac Hamilton isn’t technically a freshman because of the letter-of-intent issue, but this is his first year playing college basketball, so I’m showing his stats in the freshman tables.

-Though Kasey Hill and Chris Walker get more of the blame, Florida’s Devin Robinson also has to qualify as one of the reasons the Gators have not lived up to expectations. Of all the elite players listed here, he simply hasn’t brought much to the table.