Building a team from the ground-up is no easy task, but navigating the slog of the middle and taking the next important jump to contention is even trickier. The Milwaukee Bucks are at precisely that crucial crossroads in their team-building process: they need some sizable progressions from their budding foundational pieces, or they could end up back again in the purgatory that is the NBA’s middle-class.

A New-Age Defensive Powerhouse in the Making

Milwaukee already made massive strides this past season, primarily on the defensive end. The team broad-jumped its way from the second-worst to third-best defense in one season, an improvement of nearly ten points per 100 possessions, with a 102.2 defensive rating. They’ve built a system tailored around their absurd length, combatively blitzing ball-handlers in the pick-and-roll, stifling opposing offenses with their size advantage. It’s a high-risk, high-reward strategy, but they’ve hedged their bets on bringing the heat and forcing turnovers - they led the NBA on that front, forcing 17.4 per game.

The Bucks can suffocate opponents with on-ball pressure, using terrifyingly long wing players in double-teams and hard shows to swallow ball-handlers whole. If teams catch them overcompensating and split the screens, or rather find anything close to a breath of fresh air, they can cut off passing lanes and put the burden on the offense to make decisions under heaps of duress.

It’s an optimal strategy personnel-wise. With rangy, mobile athletes at almost every position, especially in the starting lineup, Milwaukee has the like-sized personnel necessary to switch on everything at least 1 through 4. But lacking an anchor in the middle to crash the defensive glass and protect the rim since the departure of Larry Sanders, it may be more ideal for them to try to dismantle offensive sets before shots get up and/or the ball gets inside. They led the league in missed defensive blockouts (1.85 per 100 chances), and finished with the fourth-worst DReb+ per 100 opportunities with 22.6, according to Vantage. So this isn’t exactly a hotbed for defensive boards here we’re talking about. 

So, About That Deadline

Carter-Williams’ replacement of Brandon Knight, who was named an All-Star for the first time in his career, set Milwaukee back a few steps in the short-term. Ball-dominant point guards that boast cellar-dwelling True Shooting numbers (47.1 percent on the season) and lack any semblance of a jumper for defenses to respect aren’t exactly ideal in the pace-and-space era. They’re even less ideal when they seek the same driving lanes as Giannis Antetokounmpo, ones already oft occupied by Henson, Pachulia and the rest of the big-man rotation.

Carter-Williams can slither and stride his way to the rim, where he shot 53 percent this season, but the 533 field goal attempts that came outside five feet weren’t nearly as pretty. Via SportVU tracking data: 

Converting on barely 30 percent of your attempts from six-feet extended is not only quite frankly magnificent from a position intended as a hub for efficient points and shot creation, but it’s actively detrimental to the team. On a team already suffering at the hands of floor spacing issues, opposing defenses can shore up the paint, duck under screens and basically beg Milwaukee to beat them from deep.

But that doesn’t mean the deal was bad for Milwaukee. It’ll be years before we can take a step back and evaluate the move that beat the deadline buzzer with a fully educated opinion. But it was a move in the right direction philosophically. Hammond and Co. swung for the fences, and whether you think Carter-Williams is the most apt target for an “all-in” move or not, management hand-delivered Kidd his guy. Now we can take a step back and figure out if he’s a real-life point guard whisperer, or if Knight’s progress was just fool’s gold.

Carter-Williams’ trajectory, as has always been the case, will come down to his shot.                                   

The Offseason Ahead

A top priority for Milwaukee this offseason should be to retain impending restricted free agent Khris Middleton. He’s a perfect system fit, and perhaps the only bright glimpse of both floor spacing ability and the defensive prowess necessary to gel with Kidd’s scheme.

Middleton could take the $2.75 million qualifying offer and become an unrestricted free agent next summer, but he’s at a peak value as it is. The 25 percent max this summer would start at $15.8 million, and chances are he’s going to get it from someone. Milwaukee can offer him more him than anyone else - five years and 7.5 percent annual raises - so there’s no reason not to lock him up to a lucrative deal like that if it’ll look like highway robbery down the line anyway. 

Plus, the deadline move did help them a bit in the immediate short-term financially. With the TV deal coming, they’d be set to replenish cap room in 2016 regardless. But the banishing of Knight could save them in excess of $10 million next season, and the use of the stretch provision on Sanders as opposed to an outright waiving saved them upwards of $8 million. So while the front office may not be chomping at the bit to cash in immediately this summer, they have more than enough flexibility to make a deal or two.

“There are a few reasons why I think they'll make at least one move,” Eric Buenning, a Bucks writer for BrewHoop.com said. “First, if they keep and sign their draft picks, they'll have 17 guys on the roster. Additionally, the return of Jabari Parker to the rotation creates even more of a logjam in the Bucks frontcourt.”

Even factoring in a max extension for Middleton, they could still see as much as $15 million in cap room (assuming Jared Dudley opts in, which seems like a good bet). Again, it’s unlikely they land any major players as an up-and-comer in a largely undesirable market, but they could theoretically offer a 0-6 year max and go over the cap to keep Middleton using his Bird Rights.

Since they won’t be in prime position on draft night (no. 17), perhaps they could find a player or two looking for a short deal to splurge on next year’s hectic summer, but it’s hard to envision much more. 

Either way, Middleton should be priority 1A.

Where Do We Go From Here? 

The Bucks face a tougher rebuilding path than most on the quest for contention. Their budding pieces may very well come of age during a cap boom that sees the power shift back to the league’s major markets, and given their lower standing amongst the league’s destinations, development will have to be fostered, gradually, in-house.

As cliché as it sounds, the key for Milwaukee going forward is growth.

“It sounds silly,” Buenning said, “but it's true for this team. Their most talented players are a combined 40 years old and their head coach just got done with his first campaign with the team. It was a fun year, but there is still so much work to be done and potential to be realized that it's hard to pick one area and say that's what they need to do to take that next step. It would be a mistake for anyone to look at the Bucks and say that they're set at any spot.”