When asked for an Eastern Conference contender other than the Cleveland Cavaliers leading up to the start of the season, the Washington Wizards were a trendy pick. After finishing last season with a 46-36 record, a sweep of the Raptors in the first round and then battling the Hawks in a tightly contested series in the second round, Washington seemed primed to step forward in the East. That has not materialized at all, with the Wizards playing inconsistent basketball with a below .500 record and ranking 24th in efficiency differential. Washington has played a tough schedule, which has also contributed to the “win a few, lose a few” streaks to start the season.

What has changed for Washington since last year? There wasn’t a ton of roster turnover, but the impact has been significant. After coaxing 73 games and an effective 26 minutes per game out of Paul Pierce, he chose to opt out of his deal and move back home to Los Angeles. Pierce started all year at small forward for Washington, but played a good amount as a stretch-4 in the playoffs. Those small forward minutes have basically been replaced by Otto Porter. Porter is up 12 minutes per game (19 MPG to 31 MPG) and his play has been generally solid. What is lacking is three-point shooting. Pierce finished the year at 39 percent from deep, while Porter is connecting on only 29 percent of his attempts. 

The lack of consistent shooting from behind the arc (outside of Bradley Beal) has allowed teams to pack the paint against John Wall’s drives and help on Marcin Gortat and Nene inside. Last year Gortat shot 57 percent and this year he has dropped down to 48 percent. Nene has been slightly better, but he is playing eight minutes per game less than last season and is taking more than four less shots, as he has transitioned to a full time role off the bench.

Another change was adding Jared Dudley to play backup small forward, with some minutes mixed in at power forward behind Kris Humphries, who took Nene’s sport in the starting lineup. Dudley has outperformed Humphries on the offensive end, while being only a slightly worse rebounder. Dudley’s shooting, when he’s in the game, has replaced what the Wizards were getting from Pierce. The challenge has been that starting Humphries has often put Washington in a hole they can’t dig out of.

Swapping Humphries and Porter into the starting lineup for Nene and Pierce hasn’t been the only adjustment to the Washington rotation however. The Wizards also lost Kevin Seraphin who played a key role as a backup center last year. In only 15 minutes per game, Seraphin gave the team a quality backup center who could bang bodies inside, rebound and block some shots. He formed a solid backup twosome with Humphries for the 4 and 5 spots. This year, Nene has the one backup spot covered, but the lack of another true backup big has hurt the team. Especially against teams that play two traditional big men. While playing Dudley as a stretch-4 helps offensively, it hurts defensively. 

And that brings us to the single biggest drop off this year for Washington from last season. While making a concerted effort to get out and run more (the Wizards are up to fourth in pace after finishing last year at 18th) and playing smaller, the Wizards have sacrificed defense. Last year’s squad was strong and finished fifth in Defensive Rating. This season, Washington is all the way down to 24th. Outside of Gortat, who is only passable at best, the Wizards have no rim protection. While the team is forcing more turnovers, they aren’t rebounding quite as well. Once an opponent gets a shot up, they are converting at a higher rate or rebounding their own miss and getting a second shot. This is common when a team goes small. The challenge is that the turnover percentage hasn’t gone up enough to make up for the other places where the Wizards lack. 

The story is similar on the offensive end. Again, Washington is playing smaller. While Humphries is a true power forward, he’s mostly playing outside and taking three-point shots (almost double his entire career amounts in just 14 games this season). When he comes off the floor, Washington goes even smaller with Dudley playing minutes as the stretch 4. This is a change from the Twin Towers approach of playing Gortat and Nene together for long stretches. With the former style, the Wizards consistently got high percentage shots inside.

This season, the team is taking more threes and long twos. This fits the narrative of playing small, but the production isn’t there. The pace is up, as referenced above, but it isn’t resulting in easier baskets. Instead of running pick and roll where a big rolls to rim, the team is running more pick and pop sets, resulting in a jumper.

Last year, Gortat got 47 percent of his shots at the rim and that’s down slightly to 46 percent. From 3-10 feet, Gortat is up to 36 percent of his shots, as opposed to 28 percent last year. That 3-10 foot shot is what is available when the other team packs the paint. And Gortat converts 24 percent less from that range than he does right at the rim. Add that to the fact that Nene is playing less and getting fewer shots, and you have a team that focused on converting in close changing to a jump shooting team. That works if the shots go down. When it doesn’t, it makes for a lot of long nights.

When you add it all together, Washington’s struggles shouldn’t be a surprise. The defense isn’t as good and the offense isn’t as efficient.

How do the Wizards fix it?

First off, some improvement will come as the schedule levels off a bit with four games against the 76ers still remaining.

Second, most improvement will have to come internally. Washington isn’t likely to be all that active on the trade market. They have made no secret of conserving as much cap space as possible for this summer as they try to entice Kevin Durant to come home. If the Wizards make any moves, they will likely be small and involve bringing in no guaranteed money beyond this season. The only guaranteed money Washington owes next season is to John Wall, Marcin Gortat, Otto Porter and Kelly Oubre. Martell Webster was waived, and as of this writing we are waiting to see if his guaranteed amount for 16-17 was stretched, so he’ll have some amount of money owed to him as well. Bradley Beal will be a Restricted Free Agent. DeJuan Blair, Drew Gooden, and Kris Humphries are on fully non-guaranteed deals and can be waived at no cost. Everyone else is likely to be renounced to maximize space.

Because improvement is likely to come internally, the Wizards will need to make a decision on which style they want to play. They either need to give more minutes to Jared Dudley as the stretch 4 and play Humphries less (the improvement in offense should more than offset any further decline in the defense), or the team could recommit to the Twin Towers approach and play Gortat and Nene together again. This means slowing their pace of play, but should result in a more efficient offense. It also adds a touch more defense on the interior.

It remains to be seen which direction Washington will go, but a change must be made if they hope to again get to the playoffs and definitely if they hope to win at least a round and advance. The loss of Paul Pierce will manifest itself most in the playoffs, but with some smart decision making and better usage of the players on hand, the Wizards should be able to overcome that and build on the success of last year.