RealGM Analysis
The NBA’s (totally awesome) second season is finally upon us. Now that the 16 postseason teams are officially set, we have a chance to further examine the craziness that sure to lie ahead. In our playoff preview series, we will take a look at some of the more intriguing questions surrounding these first round matchups.
Los Angeles Clippers (4) vs Portland Trail Blazers (5)
1. How will Moe Harkless play not just against perhaps Blake Griffin, but in the series overall?
Inserting Harkless into the starting lineup on March 23rd against Dallas seemed to be more out of necessity than some bold tactical stroke by Terry Stotts. After all, Noah Vonleh has looked like a fish out of water all season and Meyers Leonard was already lost for the season with an injury. But since Harkless joined that starting group, the results have been shocking. Not only did the Blazers finish the regular season going 8-3 -- grabbing the 5th seed as a result -- they also saw their defensive rating improve by two full points (105.9 to 103.9).
At the center of it all has been Harkless...or at least that’s what the stats say. According to NBA.com data, Harkless has had some unbelievable plus/minus splits since March 23rd. In the 302 minutes he’s on been on the floor during that stretch, the Blazers outscored their opponents by a whooping 13.2 points per 48 minutes. During the 226 minutes he’s sat, Portland has been Philadelphia level bad, -9.6 points per 48. Small sample size, scheduling quirks and all that, it’s an impressive run for a player nobody counted on to be a big factor on a playoff-bound Portland squad.
What’s even more interesting about it, is that watching Harkless play, it’s easy to poke holes in his game. He doesn’t shoot it well from deep (just 27.9 percent from 3 this season), lacks serious juice in any of the main actions (pick-and-roll, isolations or post ups) and isn’t on teammate Al-Farouq Aminu’s level as a defender. Yet getting caught up in what Harkless doesn’t do causes you to miss out on what he represents: versatility.
Harkless may lack certain standout skills, but he also has proved capable of meshing into Portland’s flowing offensive system in a variety of ways, scoring his points in opportunistic ways that would make Antawn Jamison proud. He also, like Aminu, provides some ‘switchability’ and match flexibility on the defensive end -- not too mention improves the overall team speed compared to Vonleh and Leonard.
Against L.A., however, Harkless will really be put to the test. He’ll be asked to switch out on Chris Paul during pick-and-rolls and onto J.J. Redick as the latter whips around screens. He may also spend a decent chunk of time battling Blake Griffin in the post, assuming Aminu spends time bothering Paul with his length (as he’s done in regular season matchups). The ability to seamlessly float between such varied assignments is a hugely beneficial factor to any team. And if Harkless proves capable of doing it in this series, it could spell trouble for the Clippers.
2. Will there be any cross-match craziness?
Speaking of Aminu and Harkless, there could be a lot of wacky cross-matches in this series. As mentioned above, it’s a good bet Aminu will see time on Paul -- a player who has struggled versus longer defenders in the playoffs. But that may not be the only offense-defense assignment swap that goes on.
If Harkless struggles with Griffin’s strength, Portland could swap him onto DeAndre Jordan and let center Mason Plumlee deal with Griffin. In fact, there is merit to making that move even without Griffin causing problems. By shifting Harkless onto Jordan and stashing Aminu on Paul, the Blazers could easily switch any of L.A.’s preferred 1-5 pick-and-rolls. And if Clippers try to exploit that move by posting up Jordan against Harkless, it could also be consider another win for Portland given L.A.’s myriad of more efficient offensive options.
The other cross-match to keep an eye revolves around where Stotts chooses to stash Damian Lillard. There’s a good bet that every minute Luc Mbah-Moute sees the floor, Lillard will be almost immediately moved onto one of the least threatening offensive players in this series. It’s nearly impossible to find objective data to support this, but such a move should be a big boost to Lillard’s offensive output.
For the Clippers, they may pull a similar move by having Paul check either Aminu or Harkless and shifting around Mbah-Moute onto Lillard (or CJ McCollum) and sliding Griffin onto whoever is leftover. Given how much heavy lifting Paul does on offense, it would be wise to try to find him “rest” on defense as much as possible, especially when you consider how much work defenders have to put in guarding McCollum and Lillard in Portland’s whirling offensive system.
So if you’re expecting some old-school head-to-head matchups in this series, prepare to be disappointed. There maybe be a lot of creative cross-matches instead.
3. Do the Clippers have enough 3-point shooting outside of JJ Redick to avoid an upset?
Judging by their surface level stats, the Clippers are a good 3-point shooting team -- ranking 6th in the league at 36.4 percent. But that number is hugely inflated by Redick’s outstanding season. If you take away contributions of the Clippers sharp-shooting guard, that number drops to 33.7 percent, a mark that would plummet L.A. to the bottom of the league (26th to be exact).
While it’s probably fair to say that might happen on more than a few teams, it certainly is something to keep on eye on this series. Stotts is as sharp as they come and there’s a good bet he is going to scheme his way into making the Clippers other lackluster perimeter shooters beat him in this series. If players like Jamal Crawford, Austin Rivers, Jeff Green, Paul Pierce and Mbah-Moute make shots, this series will likely be a walk in the park for L.A. But if most of those players continue their regular season struggles, the Blazers could send the Clippers home early.
